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41. The minilateral moment in the Middle East: An opportunity for US regional policy?

Author:
Jean-Loup Samaan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “The Minilateral Moment in the Middle East: An Opportunity for US Regional Policy,” the Atlantic Council’s nonresident senior fellow Jean-Loup Samaan analyzes how regional powers are reconsidering the multilateral balance of their foreign policy arrangements, and the emerging implications for US Middle East policy. Over the past three years, the Middle East has experienced major intra-regional changes. After a decade of fierce competition between two blocs—one led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the other by Qatar and Turkey—both parties now seem willing to cooperate. One of the key features of this new regional environment, according to Samaan, has been the growth of so-called minilateral initiatives that regroup several countries on an ad hoc basis. Samaan also addresses how powers outside the region have embarked on a similar path of building relationships with countries in the Middle East. Russia’s recent attempt to build a similar framework with Turkey and Iran, he argues, provides evidence of how minilateralism is increasingly considered an effective instrument of regional diplomacy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Resilience, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

42. Relations and Confrontations Between the Iranian and Israeli Special Services

Author:
Vasil Ghlonti
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the last ten years, relations between Iran and Israel have become increasingly tense. The Islamic regime of Iran has declared Israel an enemy of the Shiite Islamic world, and has stated its intention to destroy it, while Israel has identified Iran, which actively finances its opponent Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist organizations, as its number one opponent and the main challenge to its statehood. What does Iran want? One of the main goals of its foreign policy is the destruction of the state of Israel and the expulsion of its ally, the USA, from the Middle East region. Iranian special services have a great role to play in this endeavor. What does Israel want? To neutralise the military and terrorist threat from Iran and put a stop to its nuclear program, with the Israeli special services actively engaged in fulfilling these objectives. The conflict between the parties that started in the Middle East has gone on to gain a global character. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of the confrontation between the special services of these two influential countries in the Middle East over the last ten years.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Confrontation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

43. Transcending Western Myopia: Understanding Contemporary Middle Eastern Neocolonialism on its Own Terms

Author:
Marjan Greenblatt and Jason Guberman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The Middle East has historically been a crossroads for civilizations, and therefore, colonization. Multitudes of people have been the conquerors and the conquered, sometimes sequentially. Observers often perceive decolonization as though its scars only run skin deep, as if it only began in the nineteenth or twentieth century, and exclusively resulted from Western wounds. This myopic view not only unjustly distorts history but also blinds us to the reality of con- temporary neocolonialism in the Middle East, which is a phenomenon made in Iran. Harkening back to the long history of the Persian Empire, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) has for four decades pursued an imperialist policy that has entailed political interference, economic exploitation, military projection, demographic manipulation, and cultural indoctrination.1 This policy has played a crucial role in Iran’s exerting control over its diverse domestic population, which includes religious and ethnic minorities. Iran has simultaneously exploited the economic and natural resources of other countries and manipulated the expe- riences of foreign minority populations to power its expansionist agenda. The Islamic Republic of Iran, which struggled with instability in the early days of the Revolution, became a vulnerable target for invasion by Iraq’s Saddam Hus- sein, leading to a devastating eight-year war.2 Learning from this experience, IRI has since strategically invested in unstable regions by deepening domestic divides; supporting rogue leaders and fringe militias; and interfering in politi- cal, educational, and charitable affairs abroad. This approach allows the Islamic Republic to insert itself into power vacuums and exert its power over four major Arab capitals: Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus, and Sana’a.
Topic:
Regional Power, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Neocolonialism
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

44. Jordan’s role in a possible Saudi-Israeli-American deal: A vital link in the chain

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amid the ongoing complex negotiations of Saudi-Israeli normalization, keeping the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan on board is essential. Despite grudges and occasional tensions, Jordan shares strategic interests with Saudi Arabia and stands to gain significant benefits once the proposed trade and transportation “corridor” from India to Europe passes through its territory. It is, therefore, advisable to leave the status quo in Jerusalem intact, and include Jordan in formulating any “package.”
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Trade, Normalization, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan

45. Israel’s Priorities in the Eastern Mediterranean:The Tango with Turkey Has Limits

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The first foreign minister to visit Greece after the swearing-in of Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ new government was Israel’s Eli Cohen – a sign that both countries see the importance of their relationship and the new alignment of forces in the Eastern Mediterranean. While new avenues of dialogue are opening between Jerusalem and Ankara – including a planned visit by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, officially confirmed by Erdogan – Israel’s priorities should remain firm. Pressure to agree to a gas pipeline to Turkey should be resisted. Regarding national security, the partnership with Greece and Cyprus is a game changer, giving Israel vital strategic depth during a conflict. Hence the importance of cooperation with both and support for Cyprus’s freedom to make its own foreign policy decisions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Partnerships, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Eastern Mediterranean

46. Israel’s relations with Morocco and the future of the Abraham Accords

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The time is ripe for Israel to take the initiative rather than wait for pre-arranged reciprocal terms and remove the critical remaining obstacle to full and formal diplomatic relations with the kingdom.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco

47. Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East

Author:
Julien Barnes-Dacey and Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A multipolar Middle East is emerging as the US “right-sizes” its posture in the region – and as regional states and external powers, including Russia and China, become more assertive. Russia’s war on Ukraine is accelerating these dynamics, while also provoking destabilising price shocks and underscoring the region’s importance to energy markets. The Middle East’s geopolitical shifts pose huge challenges to Europe, but multipolarity could create space to promote European interests more effectively. A coherent European approach should be guided by principled pragmatism: acknowledging the region as it is rather than as Europeans want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability. Europeans need to enhance transatlantic complementarity and stop ceding leverage to their Middle Eastern partners. While they compete for influence with Russia and China, they should maintain room for coordination with both countries. Europe should tap into the opportunities created by stabilisation support, green energy, and economic diversification – areas that could provide an edge over China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Strategic Interests, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

48. Turkey’s quest for Strategic Autonomy

Author:
Alexandros Diakopoulos
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Ankara is pursuing a radical revision of the regional status quo by projecting power in neighboring regions with increasing aggression and disregard for international legality. Turkey moved from a security-based to a power-based foreign policy and took advantage of the power vacuum in Eastern Mediterranean to make a bid for regional hegemony by resorting to the use of hard power. The Turkish army developed autonomous expeditionary capabilities, bolstered by a strengthened national defense industry. The lessons learned in Syria clearly informed the series of Turkish foreign policy moves that followed. A revisionist Turkey involved itself in all regional theaters of conflict, fomenting instability in the region while also reaping strategic and economic benefits. These interventions shaped Turkish-Russian competitive cooperation and strategic realignment. Since 2016 the relationship has evolved into something almost symbiotic, with the two countries coordinating their presence on multiple fronts. The two countries are drawn to one another by their shared authoritarian models of governance and similar strategic cultures and operational codes: Both countries are revisionist, aggressive and assertive on their peripheries. Both countries claim to be surrounded, which serves as a pretext for their unilateral actions. Both countries have militarized their foreign policy by conducting hybrid warfare, using surrogate forces and coercing countries that resist.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Strategic Autonomy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

49. COVID-19 in the MENA: Two Years On

Author:
Marc Lynch, Vahid Abedini, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Meliha Benli Altunisik, and Mona Ali
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Early in the pandemic, POMEPS convened an online workshop with a diverse group of scholars working across the MENA region to discuss the initial impacts and to think through possible trajectories. That workshop resulted in POMEPS Studies 39, which included twenty-one essays ranging across the MENA region. Several major themes ran across those essays. We collectively expected regimes to securitize the pandemic, using the excuse of lockdowns to crack down on a protest wave that had reached multiple countries in 2019 and to further entrench authoritarian rule. We expected variation in state capacity to be a critical variable in terms of the ability of states to effectively respond to the pandemic. And several essays anticipated soft power international competition, as great powers used vaccine diplomacy to sway public attitudes their way. Two years on, how did those predictions hold up? In April 2022, POMEPS convened a follow-up workshop with some of the same scholars and a number of new contributors to assess how well those early projections panned out, and to assess the actual impacts of COVID on the region after two years. We are delighted to now publish the results of that workshop and ongoing conversations among a diverse group of scholars of the region.
Topic:
Civil Society, Health, Politics, Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Economy, Solidarity, Soft Power, Violence, Public Health, Students, COVID-19, Securitization, Gender, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and United Arab Emirates

50. Year in review: The Middle East in 2021

Author:
Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Y. Saab, and Karen E. Young
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
What were the most significant developments in the Middle East and regional policy in 2021? MEI’s Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join the program to discuss the key events and what trends to watch in 2022.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East