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301. Seeking Redefinition: U.S.-Turkish Relations After Iraq

Author:
Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It has been three months since the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) failed to muster the appropriate number of votes to allow the United States to open a northern front through Turkey against Iraq. In retrospect it is clear that the March 1 vote reflected the public opposition to the imminent conflict, the perceptible ambivalence of the powerful military establishment and its reluctance to provide an unambiguous recommendation - in particular at the National Security Council (NSC) meeting one day before the vote - and the attitude of President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It also reflected the inability of the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to overcome its deep misgivings about the war to give a sufficiently clear lead.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

302. Cyprus: Turkey's Other Difficult Decision

Author:
Seda Ciftci
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Overshadowed by the surprising failure on March 1 of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) to permit the deployment of American forces to open a northern front through Turkey in the likely war with Iraq, and the resulting strains in the US-Turkish relationship, the Cyprus issue has also reached a diplomatic climax. On March 4-5, the Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktas, who has been under increasing pressure from United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, came to Ankara seeking support. Proclaiming himself satisfied with his talks with Turkish leaders, Denktas now heads into a crucial meeting at The Hague on March 10 with Annan and newly elected Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos. The governing Justice and Development Party (JDP), which has been promoting a settlement of the Cyprus problem, now faces the prospect of the collapse of the UN-sponsored efforts as well as additional complications in Turkey's relations with the European Union (EU). However, despite JDP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan's complaints about the difficulties of dealing with the Iraq and Cyprus issues at the same time, he cannot avoid the urgent decisions that will redefine Turkish foreign policy.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
America, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

303. Hizbollah: Rebel Without A Cause?

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Few political actors in the Middle East have seen their environment as thoroughly affected by recent events in the region as Hizbollah, the Lebanese political-military organisation that first came on the scene in the mid-1980s. In U.S. political circles, calls for action against Hizbollah, which is accused of global terrorist activity, are heard increasingly. With the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, the U.S. has upped its pressure on Syria and Iran - Hizbollah's two most powerful patrons. Meanwhile, Israel has made clear it will not tolerate indefinitely the organisation's armed presence on its northern border. Within Lebanon itself, weariness with Hizbollah and questions about its future role are being raised with surprising candour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

304. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries

305. A Middle East Roadmap To Where?

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After several false starts, the Middle East diplomatic Quartet (composed of the U.S., the EU, the Russian Federation and the Office of the Secretary General of the UN) finally put its Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace on the table on 30 April 2003. However, although the document has received widespread international endorsement, there is also widespread scepticism about its contents, about the willingness of the parties to implement its provisions and indeed of its sponsors to maintain allegiance to them.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

306. Succession Politics in the Conservative Arab Gulf States: The Weekend's Events in Ras Al-Khaimah

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The normally sleepy shaykhdom of Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was wracked by gunfire and street protests over the weekend after the aged and frail ruler, Shaykh Saqr bin Mohammed al-Qassimi, switched the title of crown prince from one of his seven sons to another. Sword-waving supporters of the deposed son, Shaykh Khalid, forced members of the emiri guard to retreat behind the high walls of the ruler's palace. A semblance of order was restored only after Abu Dhabi, the lead emirate of the UAE, sent armored vehicles to Ras al-Khaimah. Shaykh Khalid still contests the change, but troops have prevented supporters from reaching his palace. Although he is an outspoken critic of the United States, his removal flies in the face of certain U.S. policy objectives.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

307. Impact of an Iraq Confrontation on Gulf States: Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics

Author:
Shafeeq Ghabra
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Regime change in Baghdad could do more than make Iraq a positive force in the Middle East instead of a source of trouble; it could also give a strong boost to liberalizing trends throughout the Middle East. Therefore, a war to topple Saddam Husayn's regime would create both opportunities and dangers for the region.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

308. India and Israel Move Closer Together

Author:
Armand Cucciniello and Pramit Mitra
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's short visit to India in early September, the first by an Israeli prime minister, highlighted the dramatic expansion in a relationship that started only 12 years ago. Before Sharon's early departure because of two suicide bombings back home, ministers from both countries signed six agreements covering visa requirements, environmental protection, combating illicit drug trafficking, and an initiative to begin an educational exchange program. The accent, however, was on the rapidly growing military supply relationship. Balancing its relations with Israel and its still important ties with the Muslim Middle East, especially its major oil suppliers, will be a growing challenge for India's policymakers.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, India, and Israel

309. Palestinian Elections

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
The International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), the International Republican Institute (IRI), and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), as well as a representative of the Government of Norway, jointly organized a pre-election assessment mission to the West Bank and Gaza between July 14 and July 24, 2002. The purpose of the mission was fourfold: 1) to evaluate the pre-electoral environment and identify the requirements of the Palestinian Authority, political parties, civil society and the international community to establish a meaningful electoral process; 2) to identify the elements of the process that are most vulnerable and the obstacles that must be overcome; 3) to assess the state of technical preparations for elections; and 4) to recommend electoral reform measures that could enhance the transparency and credibility of the process.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Norway, and Palestine

310. Turkey's Elections and the United States

Author:
Philip H. Gordon and Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The landslide victory of an Islamic party in a Turkish election would hardly seem to be good news for Americans at anytime. Butwithwarlooming inIraq,Turkeytrying torecoverfromits worst financial crisis ever, emerging questions about European defense and NATO, Cyprus talks at a critical stage, and Ankara's application for membershipinthe EuropeanUnioninthe balance, the November3electoralvictory oftheJusticeand DevelopmentParty(AKP)probably struck many U.S. observers as the wrong outcome at the wrong time.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East