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21. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

22. The Cyberthreat in the Contemporary Era: Challenges for the security of Pakistan

Author:
Muhammad Rizwan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Advancement in the field of information and communication technology (ICT) has transformed the world. In the contemporary era, digital technologies are playing an important role in performing daily life operations. This advancement and dependence on ICT also brought with it various types of vulnerabilities. Nowadays, institutions and individuals can be easily targeted by using cyberspace. Dependence on digital infrastructure is also increasing at a very rapid pace in Pakistan. Cyber networks are not only used by common people, but critical institutes like online banking, electric grids, and dams are also connected to digital networks. In the same way, military infrastructures like command and control systems and nuclear power plants are also linked to cyber networks. Due to this reliance on digital technologies, Pakistan is facing a constant threat of major cyber-attacks. So far, Pakistan does not have a proper mechanism to deal with the threat of cyber- attacks. This study analyses the impacts of the possible cyber-attack on the security of Pakistan.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Middle East

23. Trapped in a vicious cycle: Factors of instability in the Nineveh Plains

Author:
Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Nineveh Plains have long been characterised by ethnoreligious diversity that has triggered waves of marginalisation and sectarian violence far more often than peaceful co-existence over the past decades. The Islamic State occupation represented only the latest of many episodes of violence. Although it was short-lived, the impact of IS has been profound as it further ruptured the Plains’ social fabric and dysfunctional governance. Indeed, as the threat of IS has gone and violence abated, old vulnerabilities persist while new ones have arisen. This report analyses four major factors of instability that characterise the Nineveh Plains today from a perspective of crisis and conflict: the current administrative and governance vacuum produced by the weak capacity of local authorities and a paralysing dispute between Baghdad and Erbil; fragmented security arrangements with each actor exerting autonomous control within their part(s) of the Nineveh Plains; chronic displacement without coherent policy on how to enable safe returns or support vulnerable communities; growing social tensions in the aftermath of the war sowing feelings of anger, betrayal and disillusionment among communities. As the weight of these issues drags communities down and a government response remains absent, desperation and misery grow. Because the different factors of instability reinforce each other – consider for example how continued insecurity prevents the displaced from returning – they create a vicious cycle.
Topic:
Sectarian violence, Islamic State, Political stability, and Marginalization
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

24. 2020 Country Brief: Afghanistan

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
After 19 years of war in Afghanistan and a peace agreement signed with the Taliban, it’s time for the United States to withdraw. Although the United States has slowly reduced troops in Afghanistan, the Trump Administration has left the remaining troops vulnerable to the Taliban and to Putin’s Russia, which is paying bounties to Afghans for murdering American soldiers.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Political stability, Military Intervention, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

25. What’s Next, After the Withdrawal from Afghanistan?

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Middle East is doomed to remain difficult, brutal, violent, repressive, and culturally Islamist. Regional powers, including Israel, must come together, to guarantee stability.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

26. Lebanon is dying a slow death

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
Topic:
Governance, Political stability, Civil Unrest, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

27. Greece-Israel Relations Help Stabilize the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amidst global turmoil, with Ankara seeking to lure away key regional players, the Greece-Israel partnership is a pillar of effective regional strategy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

28. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
Topic:
Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

29. A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries

Author:
Rabah Arezki and Aitor Erce
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—face the dual shock of a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus and a persistent collapse in oil prices. Because of the dual shock, the growth downgrade for the GCC as a whole is 7.5 percentage points in 2020 (World Bank, 2020). This can be considered as the cost of the dual shock—Arezki and others, 2020. But there is wide uncertainty about the estimate, which could be even higher. GCC countries must act collectively and boldly today to reduce the risk of an economic depression. A delayed and tenuous response may force authorities to spend even more in the future to, among other things, rescue cash-strapped members, as non-performing loans and bankruptcies become widespread (Ari et al., 2020). A powerful joint mechanism to cushion the blow, and ensure solidarity and stability of the GCC is warranted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Political stability, Conflict, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:
Middle East

30. Ensuring Water Security in the Middle East: Policy Implications

Author:
Liel Maghen and Shira Kronich
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Over the last decades, the Middle East, and more specifically the Eastern Mediterranean region, has experienced a rapid process of desertification. In water-scarce areas, access to water is thus of key importance for economic prosperity, political stability and the vitality of the civilian population. As a result, in those Eastern Mediterranean countries facing severe water scarcity water has been framed as an existential threat, leading governments to use and justify emergency measures highly concentrated at the governmental and military level. The overall analysis of this Joint Policy Study asserts that though water management is highly securitised in the Middle East, and access to the resource is considered a national security issue, water security and multilateral cooperation is not ensured but jeopardised by ongoing securitising trends. Securitisation promotes a national and centralised approach towards water management at the expense of the participation of civil society, neutral monitoring and data collection, and the creation of secure, sustainable and transparent access to water for local communities.
Topic:
Security, Water, Food Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Mediterranean