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2. Countdown for Brexit: What to Expect for UK, EU and Turkey?
- Author:
- Burak Cop
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- As the most divisive issue of the British politics since 2016, the Brexit phenomenon continues to shake the two biggest mainstream parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party is affected by the tension between the Soft and Hard Brexiters, but the divisiveness Brexit brings about hits Labour even worse. A No Deal or Hard Brexit is likely to strengthen Scotland’s bid for independence. Scotland’s probable departure from the UK will surely be encouraging for other secessionist movements in Europe, however it should be noted that the window of opportunity Brexit opens for Scottish nationalists constitutes a rather exceptional case in Europe. One could argue that the “Norway model” for post-Brexit UK could be valid for Turkey too, but that model aims to bring about a deeper integration than what the proponents of “EU-Turkey exclusive partnership” prescribe for Turkey.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and Secession
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, North America, Scotland, and European Union
3. The JDP’s Changing Discursive Strategies towards Israel: Rhetoric vs. Reality
- Author:
- Gencer Özcan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Justice and Development Party [JDP] governments’ policies towards Israel were informed by the priorities that the party’s power strategies entailed. In a stark contrast to the friendly policies in its first term in power, the JDP began to employ different discursive strategies based on an anti-Israeli rhetoric since 2009. Geared to bolster the party’s prestige at home and abroad, the new rhetoric seemed to have addressed to the changing priorities of the party leadership. However, the new strategies led to the emergence of a widening gap between the anti-Israeli rhetoric and subtle efforts that the JDP paid to maintain its relations with Israel. Revisiting the last 15 years, the article tries to answer the question as to how Turkey’s relations with Israel were adjusted to meet necessities of miscellaneous power strategies that the JDP leadership pursued.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Arab Spring, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
4. Lebanon’s 2017 Parliamentary Election Law
- Author:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- A new Lebanese government was established in December 2016 and enacted a new election law in 2017. The new law will be in force for parliamentary elections scheduled to be held on May 6, 2018, the first since June 2009. The law’s passage is a significant achievement when considering the fragmented, complex and shifting nature of Lebanon’s politics, which is dominated by two major political and electoral alliances and overlaid by regional rivalries. The new law, however, is not likely to change the political landscape or bring an end to confessionalism in politics, which remains the overall goal in the country’s Constitution. To help you understand this important electoral law, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) provides a briefing paper on Lebanon’s 2017 Parliamentary Election Law. The paper provides an analysis of the new election law in comparison to the 2008 election law.
- Topic:
- Law, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
5. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Long Premiership and the Rise of the New Political Center: Is there a Qualitative Change in the Israeli Party System?
- Author:
- Artur Skorek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s party system has been characterized by the bipolar rivalry between the left-wing and right-wing blocks since the late 1970s. In recent years we could have seen at least two trends that seem to diverge from this model. For the last 9 years the Likud party has formed three successive governments which has made Benjamin Netanyahu the longest continuously serving prime minister in the history of Israel. Another new occurrence is the preservation of a significant representation of the center parties for four Knesset terms in the row. The aim of the paper is to verify whether Israel’s party system has departed from the two-blocs bipolar model. Based on the empirical data (election results, government formation, party’s political platforms) it examines whether the parties’ rivalry in the years 2009–2018 differed qualitatively from the previous period. To answer this question the pa- per investigates three hypotheses. First – Likud has become a dominant party in Israel. Sec- ond – a dominant and stable Israeli right-wing parties’ bloc has formed. Third – an enduring and relevant center sector has emerged in Israel’s party system.
- Topic:
- Leadership, Conservatism, Political Parties, Party System, and Multi Party System
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
6. Keeping Parties Together? The Evolution of Israel’s Anti-Defection Law
- Author:
- Csaba Nikolenyi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- In 1991, the Knesset passed a package of legislation with the aim of preventing the rampant party switching and defections by elected representatives. At the time of its adop- tion, the so-called anti-defection law was supported by an all-party consensus. Although the legislation has remained in effect, its apparent continuity conceals the way in which it has become transformed from what was at first an “efficient” institution to a “redistributive” one (Tsebelis 1990). In this paper, I review the development of the Israeli anti-defection law and argue that whereas at the initial moment of its adoption the anti-defection law was consid- ered to benefit all parties in the system, over time it has become an instrument in the hands of the governing coalition to manipulate divisions and engineer further defections among the opposition in order to shore up its often fragile legislative base.
- Topic:
- Domestic politics, Legislation, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
7. Political and Doctrinal Sources and Valuable Framework of the Political Islam in the Context of Political Ideologies
- Author:
- Nikola Gjorshoski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The relation between religion and politics is a field of mutual interaction, as well as source and promoter of many historical, current, and probably future political movements, parties, and organizations. Political Islam represents the old-new dimension in the spectrum of contemporary political ideologies with specific characteristic and own socio-political worldview which pretend to penetrate into countries with Muslim inhabitants. The authors analyze those value’s elements, their first term, and modern interpretation, as well as their indicators for change. Level and dynamic of society’s development in many cases are determinate in political ideologies and Political Islam tries to present itself in this light with the affirmation of its/own postulates of organization and regulation on socio-political living. This paper in addition to analyzing those values’ framework logically offers and reviews of political doctrine sources which concept Political Islam in the whole of its time-space aspects.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Religion, Ideology, Islamism, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus
8. Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention Across Developing Democracies
- Author:
- Kristin McKie
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America
9. Elite Cues or Social Cues? The Formation of Public Opinion on Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Michelle Nicholasen and Joshua D. Kertzer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In July 2014, a wave of violence erupted in the Middle East, as Israel responded to a barrage of rockets from Gaza by launching airstrikes, and eventually, a ground incursion intent on degrading Hamas’s military capabilities. In Washington, both Democrats and Republicans firmly sided with Israel: the Senate passed a unanimous resolution blaming Hamas for the conflict, and both prominent Democrats and Republicans gave staunch defenses of Israel’s right to defend itself. Although both Democrats and Republicans in Washington were united in their support for Israel, a series of polls conducted at the time found that Democrats and Republicans in the public were not aligned with them: in a Pew poll, for example, 60 percent of Republicans blamed Hamas for the violence, while Democrats were more evenly split, with 29 percent blaming Hamas and 26 percent blaming Israel. A Gallup poll detected a similar pattern: 65 percent of Republicans thought Israel’s actions were justified, but Democrats were more divided, as 31 percent backed the Israeli response, and 47 percent called it unjustified.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, Political Parties, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America