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Begin New Search Topic Pandemic Political Geography Middle East

61. The Impact of COVID-19 on Russia’s Middle East and Syria Policies

Author:
Leonid Isaev and Andrey Sakharov
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
May 3 rd, Russia’s COVID-19 infection rate resembled that of the United Kingdom. This situation has the potential to significantly impact the country’s financial situation, influencing the country’s foreign policy toward the Middle East. By the beginning of the lock-down period, the most optimistic forecasts for 2020 predicted a fall in the Russian economy by 4-6% of GDP.1 However, after four weeks of confinement, a decline of 6-8% was considered to be the most positive scenario, provided that it is possible to avoid a second wave for the epidemic in the autumn as predicted by the Higher School of Economics forecast. The Russian situation is complicated by the fact that the outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with the dramatic decline in oil and gas prices. The federal budget’s breakeven price for 2020 was set at $42.4 per barrel.3 However, prices by the end of March and the beginning of April went significantly lower. This means that Russia may not be able to match the predicted government spending for 2020. Moreover, its leadership may not be able to spend money as generously to advance projects serving the country’s foreign policy. Moscow, short on revenue, will unlikely take foreign policy and domestic political adventures. Foreign policy projects, primarily those that require significant budgetary expenditures in the Middle East and specifically in Syria, will be frozen. A passive Russian international engagement is expected to dominate until the end of 2020. The exception to this policy will be when a response is unavoidable. Domestic policy is likely to be just as reactive. The baseline will likely be to maintain the current state of affairs and absorb any shocks to stability given the scarcity of financial resources.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

62. Is the “New Normal” in Idlib Different from the “Old Normal”?: How the COVID-19 Pandemic has Affected Idlib

Author:
Serhat Erkman
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
Topic:
Conflict, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

63. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria

Author:
Nikolay Surkov
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

64. COVID-19 in Turkish Controlled Areas and Idlib

Author:
Başak Yavçan
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The safe zones in the northern part of Syria have been established following three operations in the region, namely: the Euphrates Shield in 2016, the Olive Branch in 2018, and the Peace Spring in 2019. Before the outbreak of pandemic, the healthcare capacity was semisufficient with urgent cases being treated in Turkey and with frequent hospital transfers being conducted. In terms of livelihood opportunities, humanitarian aid was predominantly channelled through Turkey with limited involvement of Western and international organisations. Trade with the outside world was limited due to the sanctions imposed on Syria. The infrastructural investment in the region was predominantly made by the Turkish state and NGOs in the form of renovations and building of schools, hospitals, as well as water and energy supply. As of May 28th, 2020, there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in both regions yet living conditions have deteriorated due to the conditions in Turkey, Syria and rest of the world.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

65. Israel and the Mediterranean Basin Amid the Coronavirus Crisis

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the impact of the coronavirus on Israel’s relations with the Mediterranean Basin. It is based on the main points raised at the sixth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held on May 14, 2020 at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper highlights the key insights emerging from the Eastern Mediterranean’s handling of the coronavirus epidemic, including the importance of regional cooperation for Israel’s national resilience, the strengthening of Israel’s alliance with Greece and Cyprus, the economic importance of the Mediterranean for Israel, the energy crisis and its impact, and Israel’s ties with Arab states. The paper does not reflect agreement among all the meeting participants.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Economy, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

66. Coronavirus Lockdown Exacerbating Domestic Violence in Jordan

Author:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic has entered every home in one way or another. Strict lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the disease, are giving rise to a surge in domestic violence to which the UN is referring to as ‘the shadow pandemic’. To some, it is not safe to be home, therefore the UN Secretary General has called for governments to incorporate domestic abuse policies as a key part of their national response strategies against COVID-19. Realizing those serious human rights violations and their direct association to financial hardship; which are on the rise due to the loss of jobs/ curfew as a result of the coronavirus crisis, the Centre for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan has immediately launched its 20th poll, as part of its “Jordanians’ Barometer – The Pulse of the Jordanian Street” series of polls, to reflect on the effect of the coronavirus crisis on the degree of domestic violence exacerbations among Jordanian households during the curfew. The poll was conducted between the 20th -26th of April, 2020, on a representative sample of the Jordanian community; taking into consideration the different age groups, educational levels and governorates. The collected data was processed and weighed by CSS research experts; to ensure the statistical representation of all governorates, within a margin of ±3% error. The outputs of the poll disclosed state-of-the-art statistics on domestic violence surge during COVID-19 lockdown in Jordan, originating a public debate among officials and citizens alike and starting a huge media campaign on television channels, radio stations and social media platforms. Furthermore, a hotline for reporting cases of domestic violence was launched by the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW) and Al-Mamlaka TV; being its foremost impact.
Topic:
Public Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, Domestic Violence, Polls, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

67. Global Health Security and Pandemics: COVID-19 in Syria, Palestine and Lebanon

Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In this video, Dr Andreas Papamichail (Queen Mary University of London) speaks to Dr Abdulkarim Ekzayez (King’s College London), Dr Weeam Hammoudeh (Birzeit University) and Dr Nassim El Achi (American University of Beirut) about the current situation with respect to the coronavirus pandemic in Syria, Palestine and Lebanon, and how the political situation in the three countries is affecting the response to the outbreak.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria