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11. The GCC and Geopolitics: Navigating Challenges and Maximizing Influence

Author:
Urs Unkauf
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The Gulf region is one of the most important geostrategic regions in the world. It comprises the Persian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. The region is of great importance to the global economy, being home to one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world. The Gulf region is also an important hub for international trade and shipping. The Persian Gulf is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, connecting the region with Europe, Asia, and Africa (it is also adjacent to the Silk Road region). The ports of the Gulf region are important trans-shipment points for trade in oil, gas, and other commodities. In terms of security, the countries of the region are important stakeholders for Western, especially U.S. defense policies, and take a key role in the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Due to the foregoing, the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which was founded in May 1981, are playing an increasing role as actors in regional and international politics. Recognizing their vulnerability as hydrocarbon-dependent economies, the GCC countries have undertaken substantial efforts to diversify their revenue streams. They have shifted their focus towards sectors such as tourism, finance, technology, renewable energy, and manufacturing. Initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, UAE’s National Innovation Strategy, and Qatar’s National Vision 2030 have set ambitious goals to reduce reliance on oil and gas, foster innovation, and attract foreign investments. These strategies have not only led to the establishment of new industries but also facilitated job opportunities for the younger generation.
Topic:
Oil, Geopolitics, Trade, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

12. Misperceptions of OPEC Capability and Behavior: Unmasking OPEC Theater

Author:
David Kemp and Peter Van Doren
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the view of the American public, media, and politicians, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sets oil prices by adjusting the amount of crude oil its members produce. However, the geological and engineering realities of oil extraction, the inconclusive academic evidence on the relationship between OPEC production and oil prices, and the cheating on oil production quotas by OPEC members and lack of enforcement all indicate that OPEC is more a political club than an effective oil cartel. In fact, three key members—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—have oil production volatility similar to the United States over the past three decades. This implies that these three important and politically stable OPEC nations do not possess, or do not utilize, a unique short-term capability to alter their oil production to regulate oil prices. Altogether, the evidence suggests that the attention paid to OPEC is mostly about political benefits to both OPEC members and Western leaders, not an actual ability to control the oil market. The OPEC members use their oil production as an international bargaining chip and the perception of influence over the West to gain domestic legitimacy. Western leaders are happy to reciprocate by using OPEC as a scapegoat for unpleasant oil supply or demand shocks. Based on this picture of OPEC, U.S. concerns about OPEC behavior are unfounded and legislative proposals to punish OPEC are misguided.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, OPEC, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

13. Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa: The Road to COP28

Author:
Hanen Keskes and Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Oil and gas producers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) must plan for the long-term impacts that the global energy transition will have on their fiscal systems and adapt public investment plans in the pursuit of long-term economic transformation. MENA countries seeking international climate finance to support energy transition must establish a track record of developing and implementing viable green energy projects. MENA governments must center energy transitions around justice, fairness and equity for all. A just energy transition process must include two types of justice: procedural justice, which relates to the extent to which people are involved in the process; and distributive justice, which represents the extent to which the positive and negative effects of energy transition are fairly distributed. Governments in the Global South must ensure that South-North cooperation for renewable energy production addresses domestic energy needs, before directing excess production to export.
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

14. Reciprocal Pressures: Are Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks doomed to fail?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The future of talks between Israel and Lebanon on delineating a shared maritime border, mediated by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein remains uncertain following an exchange of escalatory statements from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah about the disputed Karish natural gas field. Both sides suggested that the tensions can escalate into an all-out war unless their conditions are met. However, Lebanese officials including President Michel Aoun stated that the negotiations to demarcate the border are in the final stages.
Topic:
Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Maritime, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

15. Borders and transit countries: the re-territorialization of Middle East pipelines

Author:
Nino Luis Maduerira
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Following the discovery of vast oil reserves in the Persian Gulf region, the Middle East became the main hub for the expansion and development of western pipeline technology. Contrary to the borderless world described in some accounts of globalization, what is observed after 1956 is the establishment of hard political borders, directly under the oversight of national governments, for pipeline deployment with minimal boundary crossings. In the Middle East, this minimal permeability of frontiers entailed fewer risks compared with the uncertainties arising from having to cross several countries: the sovereign state thus seemed the best container for oil transportation. The conclusion puts forward the concept of re-territorialization to explain the multi-level changes that took place, entailing shifts in geography, in business structures and in international relations.
Topic:
Oil, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Borders, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East

16. KRI positioned in prominent role in global gas markets

Author:
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has proven gas reserves of over 25 trillion cubic feet—or 20 percent of Iraq’s total proven reserves. Its current gas production of 5.4 billion cubic meters per year could nearly triple production by 2030 and even sextuple by 2040. This increase would meet current and future domestic KRI demand and generate essential export revenue for the region. The report, The Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s Gas-Export Potential: Deja Vu All Over Again, authored by senior fellow Ahmed Tabaqchali considers the potential of the KRI’s proven and probable gas reserves.
Topic:
Environment, Markets, Oil, Gas, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

17. Petroleum Industry Diversification in the Middle East and Its Policy Implications for Korea in the Era of Energy Transition

Author:
Kwon Hyung Lee, Sung Hyun Son, Yun Hee Jang, Kwang Ho Ryou, and Dawoon Lee
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The GCC oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under strong pressure to prepare for decreasing global oil demand in the era of energy transition and carbon neutrality. To overcome these challenges, they need to diversify their industrial structure and develop low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage). This research is aimed to examine various mid-to-long term plans, industrial policies, and business cooperation cases to promote diversification in the Middle Eastern petroleum industry, suggesting policy proposals for cooperation between Korea and the Middle East and business opportunities in the region.
Topic:
Oil, Business, Diversification, Industry, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

18. Biden Sees Oil as Key to His Visit, but Does Riyadh Agree?

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The administration has signaled its intentions for the trip well in advance, but the realities of Saudi oil capacity and global energy forecasts should temper any U.S. expectations of a quick fix. The centrality of energy security to America’s historical relationship with Saudi Arabia is under strain. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait thirty-two years ago and threatened nearby Saudi oil fields, King Fahd ignored the pleas of cautious senior princes who wanted a delay to discuss the issue and instead requested Washington’s immediate help—which he quickly received in the form of half a million U.S. troops and a multinational force. It was a perfect illustration of the longstanding strategic understanding between the two governments: Saudi Arabia will supply the world with oil, and the United States will defend the House of Saud.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, Joe Biden, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

19. The Ukraine War and the Middle East: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines several economic issues occurring simultaneously in the Middle East and North Africa region mainly as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. Higher oil prices are good for some countries and bad for others.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East

20. Govt Agrees Financial Aid as Houthis Target Oil Sector – The Yemen Review, November 2022

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Hopes faded that the expired truce would be revived in November, as Houthi authorities dug in their heels over maximalist demands that caused the talks’ collapse and then upped the ante with a series of drone and missile attacks on southern ports. The attacks crippled oil and gas revenues, though International Monetary Fund, Saudi, and Emirati support has given the government the lifeline it needs for now. Following the international financial agreements, the government-run Central Bank of Yemen in Aden moved to increase its oversight of banking data. Though there has been no return to full-scale war, intense if low-level clashes were seen in Taiz, Lahj, and Hudaydah. Reports persisted of back-channel Houthi-Saudi talks, but they appear to have stalled for now over Houthi demands for salary payments. The talks could become problematic for the government if they go beyond the question of the truce and extend to a unilateral settlement, which would be contrary to its interests. Divisions continued to wrack the Presidential Leadership Council, whose head Rashad al-Alimi was the sole member to spend significant time in Aden when he returned in early December after a regional tour that included Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The STC-Islah dispute, which has been at the heart of PLC wrangling, eased up slightly under UAE and Saudi pressure as their priority shifts to preventing a fiscal collapse after the Houthi strikes on oil facilities. This led to Alimi removing a key Islah military official in Hadramawt governorate, where STC-led protests were threatening to descend into violent clashes. The PLC’s Tareq Saleh strengthened his position as the scion of the Saleh family, leading government-backed celebrations to mark the death of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2017. The opening of Al-Mokha airport raises the importance of his UAE-backed National Resistance forces, which guard a critical section of the Red Sea coast.
Topic:
Oil, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Financial Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations