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61. How Reliable is Intelligence on Iran's Nuclear Program?

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For a country that has been accumulating nuclear know-how since the Eisenhower administration, Iran has hardly been sprinting toward a bomb. Indeed, repeated prognostications that Tehran was on the verge of becoming a nuclear power have a Chicken Little quality: The sky did not fall over the past decade, and it seems unlikely to do so for the next year or two or three. Still, Iran has made steady progress accumulating the elements and expertise required to make nuclear weapons, and it would be naive and irresponsible to discount what appears to be a cottage industry of piecemeal proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

62. Iran Turns to China, Barter to Survive Sanctions

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Sanctions and China's growing economic clout have altered Iran's trading patterns in ways that are reducing Iran's access to hard currency but may also be insulating the Iranian government and political elite from further US unilateral pressures.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

63. Performance of the IR-1 Centrifuge at Natanz

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
During the past year, the performance of the IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) has faltered. Although the average monthly production of 3.5 percent low enriched uranium (LEU) has increased to about 150 kg/month, the number of centrifuges needed to produce this LEU has increased disproportionately compared to the previous year. During the last year, Iran has needed 5,860 IR-1 centrifuges to produce this amount of LEU. In the previous year, it would have needed only about 4,820 IR-1 centrifuges to make this quantity of LEU.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, Uranium, and Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP)
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

64. The World Responds to Iran's Elections: An Early Assessment

Author:
Andrew Boyko, Mark Lewis, and Louise Stenfors Virenfeldt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As the 2009 Iranian elections came to an end, many states and groups waited with anticipation to see who would lead Iran for the next four years. To the concern of many Western governments, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s second term as president was confirmed by the Guardian Council after a questionable recount. This paper tracks reactions from countries and groups following the election and assesses their possible implications for the future. The damning exchanges between Iran and the West are reaching a level of hostility that bodes ill for a future rapprochement. If they continue to escalate, and if Iran is unwilling to scale down its nuclear programme, is the possibility of military action against this country coming closer to realization?
Topic:
National Security, Nuclear Power, Elections, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

65. Nuclear Energy: Rebirth or Resuscitation?

Author:
Sharon Squassoni
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After several decades of disappointing growth, nuclear energy seems poised for a comeback. Talk of a "nuclear renaissance" includes perhaps a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear power to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and developing new kinds of reactors and fuel-reprocessing techniques. But the reality of nuclear energy's future is more complicated. Without major changes in government policies and aggressive financial support, nuclear power is actually likely to account for a declining percentage of global electricity generation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East and Southeast Asia

66. The Politics of Iran's Assembly of Experts after Meshkini

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri and Ramzy Mardini
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The recent death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini effectively created a vacuum that was bound to lead to an ideological and political clash among Iran’s power players. Meshkini was the first and only chairman of the Assembly of Experts, objectively Iran’s most powerful institution. He has kept its inherent powers at bay to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But now that has changed and Meshkini’s passing, with the recent victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani as his successor, has come at a time when the Islamic Republic is witnessing a socio-political redefinition in its conservative establishment. The ambitions of Iran’s old and new elitists have led to a political confrontation in filling Meshkini’s vacuity, a struggle that may have changed Iranian discourse, as we know it. Though this event is little known and hardly emphasized in media circles in the West, the politics leading up to Rafsanjani’s victory over the ultra-conservatives should be of great interest to those in discussion with Iran over its nuclear program and involvement in Iraq, particularly the United States. This article analyzes the Assembly’s role and significance within the Iranian institutional realm as well as depicts the candidates and politics that shaped this historic dilemma.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

67. Iran’s Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Colin Dueck and Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
COLIN DUECK and RAY TAKEYH describe the political, ideological and security motivations behind Iran’s nuclear program and examine various strategic alternatives available to the United States. They conclude that the United States should pursue comprehensive, direct negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear issue, within an overarching framework of containment.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Containment
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America