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382. New Realities in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For analytical as well as practical and even political reasons, the time has come to re-define Israel’s place in the world in terms of belonging to the “eastern Mediterranean” region, not the “Middle East.”
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean
383. Saving Rojava
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan
384. Hysterical Reactions to Recent Terrorist Attacks
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The fitting Israeli response is to demonstrate resilience, and to declare that despite the terror and the pain we will remain in the land of our forefathers.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
385. Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
386. The Withdrawal of the US from Syria in Broad Perspective
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
387. Israel’s New Adversary: Iran’s Shi’ite Militias and the Next War in the North
- Author:
- Lazar Berman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Shi’ite militia threat isn’t a mere thought exercise about a worst-case scenario. Iranian-controlled Popular Mobilization Forces leaders have already threatened Israel only miles from Israeli homes.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Religion, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
388. The Afghan Taliban's Relationship with Pakistan
- Author:
- Safi Khalilullah and Joseph Mohr
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This paper seeks to reflect the views of those fighting the Afghan government, which includes the movement of the Afghan Taliban. The movement of the Afghan Taliban grew out of multiple sources, but came mainly from primarily local bands of religious students who joined the anti-Communist uprising of Afghan religious scholars. These bands of religious students captured branches in some of the Pakistan-based religious resistance parties, and were frequently integrated in provincial organizations as separate “fronts” inside Afghanistan. The religious students did not appropriate the modernizing Islamist discourse of Hezb-i Islami and other parties, but demanded the creation of an Islamic system of governance, the "Islamic Emirate," headed by the commander of the faithful (amir al-muminin), and not a President. This vision was realized in 1998, two years after the fall of Kabul. Pakistani support had been used up to this point by all parties in order to capture power in Afghanistan as a tactic. With the fall of the Islamic Emirate, this tactic changed to become the strategy for their survival, come-back and counter-offensive. Every time the Taliban used Pakistan in order to secure their leadership, establishing command centers, recruitment, or any other activity, the increasing reliance colored their whole activity. In the matter of recruitment, this meant that Pakistani youth would be admitted into the Afghan Taliban ranks as full members. Ultimately, this reliance also opened up the Afghan Taliban to Pakistani penetration and influence. Mullah Omar, the “amir al-muminin” tried to counter this trend by relocating into hiding inside Afghanistan, where he also died. In the process, he had ceded much actual control to his messengers, who could operate in Pakistan and the world in his name. The article provides an overview of Mullah Omar’s movements between Afghanistan and Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban Emirate up to his death. In light of President Trump speech on 21 August 2017, and subsequent briefings by Secretary of Defense Mattis and General Dunford to the Senate on 3 October, a stronger focus of the United States on Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban is evident. The views of the Taliban and Al-Qaida operatives on the role played by Pakistan appear to support this shift in American focus from President Obama’s approach.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, and Al Qaeda
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Middle East
389. Russian Weapons in the Syrian Conflict
- Author:
- Douglas Barrie and Howard Gethin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- In September 2015, the Russian military, predominantly though not exclusively through the use of air power, intervened in Syria’s civil war. Moscow’s aim appears to have been to bolster the Bashar al-Assad regime with even a comparatively modest Russian force, to allow it to prevail against the disparate array for opposition forces reined against the Baath administration. As 2017 drew to a close this appeared to be paying off, with the Syrian regime in an increasingly strong position, and the Russian political and military leadership effectively proclaiming success and the end of substantive hostilities. Russia’s credibility as an ally has been enhanced in the region and beyond.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Imperialism, Military Strategy, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
390. Understanding Authoritarian Regionalism
- Author:
- Alexander Libman and Anastassia V. Obydenkova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Democracy
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- This article examines the goals, methods, and implications of regional organizations founded and dominated by autocracies—including the Commonwealth of Independent States (spearheaded by Russia), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China), Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Venezuela), and Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia). It shows the role that these organizations play in preserving and promoting autocracy and the different tools they use for this purpose: rhetorical endorsement; the redistribution of resources to support weaker authoritarian states; and even military interventions to suppress revolution. The existence of authoritarian regionalism poses an important challenge for Western states and institutions in democracy promotion around the world.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela