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231. The Governorate of Homs: is this the Islamic State’s new fiefdom?

Author:
Romain Caillet
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Now considered by many experts as the primary terrorist threat, the Islamic State (IS), formerly known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has been able to assert its dominance over wide areas of Iraq and Syria. In Syria IS dominance can be seen in the regions of the Euphrates Valley (Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and Hasaka) and in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. Apart from these areas, the Province of Homs represents a particularly interesting case study, because of the fact that the IS is expanding there, but has been unable to establish its authority over all rebel forces. This study was conducted using data available over the Internet, including websites, social networks (Facebook and Twitter), and online video-sharing platforms. This information was later extended through interviews with university figures, European humanitarian workers and field actors, including sympathisers and sometimes even assumed IS members.
Topic:
Terrorism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Homs

232. The un-Islamic State

Author:
Mouin Rabbani
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) movement needs to be understood as a political project whose primary objective is to establish a viable entity in areas it can control rather than engage in permanent insurgency against more powerful adversaries. The conditions for its emergence were created by the U.S. occupation of Iraq, the dissolution of the Iraqi state and its replacement with a sectarian political system and conflict, and the collapse of state authority in regions of Syria. The available evidence indicates that the IS is at best uninterested in achieving the conventional forms of legitimacy and integration pursued by other Islamist movements; engagement is therefore unlikely to prove a viable option. There are no quick or simple solutions to the challenges posed by the IS. Those being considered, particularly Western military intervention, are almost guaranteed to make a catastrophic situation worse, while a strategy that relies on disaffected Sunni tribes and sectarian Shiite militias is unlikely to succeed. A comprehensive approach is needed involving a re-evaluation of policy towards the Syrian crisis, engagement with regional parties on a much broader spectrum of relevant issues, and a focus on establishing legitimate institutions that are able to address deep-seated grievances and resolve the conflicts that allow movements like IS to thrive.
Topic:
Insurgency, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

233. The U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State: many questions, few answers

Author:
Yossi Alpher
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The U.S. commitment to "ultimately destroy" the Islamic State implies an extended military commitment in a highly complex Middle East environment. By looking at the strategic issues that emerge from this dynamic, we can hope better to understand impending developments. These issues centre on the motive behind the U.S. decision to enter the conflict; the U.S. relationship with its European and regional partners and, by contrast, with other major actors in the region like Iran, Syria, Turkey and Egypt; the options for the Islamic State’s response; and issues of U.S. strategy and grand strategy regarding the Islamic world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

234. Jihadi Discourse in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Author:
Nelly Lahoud
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report analyzes jihadi discourse in the wake of the “Arab Spring” to address two related questions: (1) why have global jihadi leaders been struggling to advance a coherent and effective response to the events of the Arab Spring, and (2) why, despite strong rhetoric of militancy, have we witnessed little action on the part of new jihadi groups that have emerged in countries that underwent regime change (i.e., Tunisia, Egypt and Libya) as a result of the Arab Spring? To answer these questions, this study focuses on original Arabic sources in the form of public statements released by global jihadi leaders in response to the Arab Spring and by new groups projecting a jihadi worldview that have emerged in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. It reveals that the factors that are causing the current ideological incoherence of jihadism are the same factors that had once served as the cornerstone of its plausibility in the eyes of its adherents. As to new jihadi groups, this study highlights the inconsistency between their rhetoric and their actions. While they uphold the principle of the obligation of jihad, advance anti-democratic rhetoric using religious arguments and lionize global jihadi leaders and their causes, for now these new jihadi groups are characterized more by the propaganda of jihad than by its delivery. While Syria has not undergone a regime change, but in view of the proliferation of militant groups there, some of which are operating under a jihadi banner, the concluding section of the report nevertheless discusses the implications of the situation in Syria on jihadism. This study argues that the events in Syria could have restored the credibility of jihadism, but competition between the Islamic State of Iraq (and the Levant) and the Syria-based jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) has confused and divided their supporters and earned the derision of their opponents. The divide between the two groups even risks undermining the symbolic position that Ayman al-Zawahiri occupies as the global leader of jihad.
Topic:
Communications, Al Qaeda, Media, Islamic State, Ideology, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia

235. Bombers, Bank Accounts and Bleedout

Author:
Brian Fishman, Jacob N. Shapiro, Joseph Felter, Peter Bergen, and Vahid Brown
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report is the second to assess the demographics, procedures, finances, and leadership of al-Qa`ida’s foreign fighters, especially those currently fighting in Iraq. It analyzes al-Qa`ida in Iraq’s (AQI) operations from spring 2006 to summer 2007 and includes almost 600 AQI personnel records for foreign fighters crossing into Iraq, AQI contracts for suicide bombers, AQI contracts for fighters leaving Iraq, narratives written by al-Qa`ida’s Syrian smugglers, and AQI financial records.
Topic:
Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria