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51. The Battle for Syria

Author:
Christopher Phillips
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Military conflict in Syria is in its 5th year. What was initially seen as another strike of the wave of democratization known as the “Arab Spring” has now become an extremely complicated multi-level regional conflict, where authorities in Damascus, estranged from the Western countries, are fighting against several groups, including ISIS1. The international dimension of the Syrian conflict is usually seen as the reluctance of the USA to get engaged, and Russia’s readiness to do just the opposite – while many other regional players get lost in the background. In order to establish different patterns and to articulate the plurality of motives that guided international actors, Rethinking Russia spoke to Christopher Phillips – senior lecturer at the School of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary University and associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, who just published a meticulously researched book “The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East” that documents the international dimension of the conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, International Security, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

52. Competing Interests in Shingal: Yazidis Caught Between Millstones

Author:
Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Nearly two years since the north side of Shingal was liberated from the Islamic State, most of the Yazidi population is still displaced. Yazidis are trapped between millstones of the competition of exogenous actors, such as the KDP, the PKK-linked forces, and Baghdad, over the control of the strategically important disputed territory of Shingal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

53. Governing Nineveh After the Islamic State: A Solution for All Components

Author:
Dylan O’Driscoll and Dave van Zoonen
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This paper lays out three administrative options for the post-Islamic State governance of Nineveh and analyses the benefits and drawbacks related to each option. Despite minorities and international lobbying groups tied to the minorities favouring separate minority provinces, this paper argues against the formation of a Nineveh Plain province. A separate province would prevent efforts for reconciliation, is likely to induce new conflicts, and will ultimately not benefit minorities in the ways proponents of the plan claim. Similarly, the paper highlights that although decentralisation to the province through Law 21 could address a number of important issues, it would leave minorities in Nineveh too vulnerable to being marginalised and politically dominated by Sunnis. The main argument, and thus recommendation, of the paper is that the best available option for all components of Nineveh is the creation of a Nineveh federal region with entrenched power sharing and decentralisation within the region. This will provide the components of Nineveh with a political arena in which to address and overcome differences, while protecting minorities as well as Sunnis from being marginalised. Moreover, the creation of a region for Nineveh will have a stabilising effect on the wider Iraqi political system.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

54. The Future of Mosul: Before, During, and After the Liberation

Author:
Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The post-conflict planning following the 2003 invasion of Iraq was weak at best and as a result many elements were at play that led to the marginalisation and political disenfranchisement of the Sunni community. Consequently, radical entities, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), exploited local dynamics to take up a position within society in the Sunni areas of Iraq. It is important that the current fight against IS in Iraq avoids this pattern at all costs; if the liberation is devoid of long-term planning it will likely result in the resurfacing of a number of issues responsible for the rise of IS in Iraq in the first place. Lessons must be learnt from the mistakes of post-Saddam planning and these must not be repeated post-IS. There needs to be a multifaceted approach to the preparation for the liberation of Mosul that goes well beyond the military dimension.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

55. Averting an Economic Meltdown in the KRI: Aligning Political Objectives with Economic Necessities

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This report is a contribution to the public debate in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) about crucial aspects of the current economic crisis and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) immediate response. In addition, it looks at the impact of four different policy options, such as a.) independence b.) rapprochement with Baghdad c.) macro-financing from International Stakeholders and d.) macro-financial assistance from Regional Stakeholders, may have in averting an economic meltdown in the short-term, on the assumption that the oil prices will remain suppressed for the foreseeable future. This report argues that it is only when the economic meltdown is averted in the short-term that the KRG will be able to proceed with deep structural reforms in the public sector and start working on the diversification of the economy.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

56. Is Austerity the Most Effective Policy to Solve the Present Financial Crisis?

Author:
Aram Mahmood
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The current policy of salary reductions might have been the only available emergency measure for the KRG to counter its empty treasury. However, continuing the current policy, focusing on a single sector of the economy is an unsuitable response to the on-going financial crisis and is likely to significantly dampen and delay recovery.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

57. Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The United States is retreating from the Middle East. The adverse implications of this policy shift are manifold, including: the acceleration of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East, as global players question the value of partnership with an irresolute Washington.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

58. The Relative Importance of Religion and Region in Explaining Differences in Political Economic and Social Attitudes in Iraq in 2014: Findings from the Arab Transformations Public Opinion Survey

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
Based on the Arab Transformations survey of Iraq in 2014, this paper examines the relative weight of religious identification and region of residence in several key areas, including main challenges perceived by the population, perceptions of security, of economic conditions, of governance, political mobilisation, corruption, and migration. Contrary to the perception that sectarian identity is the most important factor in understanding contemporary Iraqi politics, this analysis shows that religious identification is often a confounding variable, and that regional location better captures variations in respondents’ perceptions, including in key areas such as security, the economy, and migration.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

59. After the Arab Uprisings: Popular Expectations and the EU’s Response

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
The Arab Uprisings moved the EU to learn lessons from past mistakes and re-define its approach to development, democracy, and security. Reality, however, has fallen short of this aim. Analysis of the revised Neighbourhood Policy suggests it changed little, falling back on pre-Uprisings conceptions and discarding approaches which were more inclusive, organic, and better suited to long-term EU interests. Conversely, ArabTrans survey data shows MENA populations display precisely the more substantive and holistic approaches to democracy which EU policy discarded. It also shows supporters of the Uprisings were driven by dissatisfaction with the provision of satisfactory socioeconomic conditions and tackling corruption, and that their expectations of improvements remain largely frustrated. This mis-match between policy and popular expectations leaves existing difficulties unaddressed.
Topic:
International Security, International Affairs, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East

60. Transnational Diffusion and Cooperation in the Middle East

Author:
Marc Lynch
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The Arab world never seemed more unified than during the incandescent days of the 2011 Arab uprisings. Tunisia’s revolution clearly and powerfully inspired Arabs everywhere to take to the streets. Egypt’s January 25 uprising that led to the removal of Hosni Mubarak taught Arab citizens and leaders alike that victory by protestors could succeed. The subsequent wave of protests involved remarkable synergies that could not plausibly be explained without reference to transnational diffusion. Bahrainis, Yemenis and Jordanians alike attempted to replicate the seizure and long-term encampments in Egypt’s Tahrir Square and protestors across the Arab world chanted the same slogans and waved the same signs.
Topic:
International Security and Political stability
Political Geography:
Middle East