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31. From Reform to Revolution A Schism in the Muslim Brotherhood and the Rise of Homegrown Jihadism in Mainland Egypt

Author:
Alexander Velez-Green
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security
Abstract:
The United States has long looked to Egypt as a key partner in the Middle East. Egypt’s adherence to the Camp David Accords is fundamental to Israeli security. Cairo has also been a key player in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process for many years. In addition, the Egyptian state has played an essential role in supporting the U.S. fight against global jihadism. Its provision of reliable access to the Suez Canal, Egyptian airspace, and intelligence sharing directly enables U.S. operations against al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) across the Middle East. That is not to mention the blood and treasure that Egypt itself has spent to defeat terrorist groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Middle East

32. Gray Zones in the Middle East

Author:
Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security
Abstract:
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and trans-Sahara regions are undergoing a period of instability and state collapse, with active civil wars raging in four of the most important countries in the region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. As witnessed during the Arab uprisings of 2010–2011, the MENA region has begun to grapple with the once and future challenges of instability as the regional population grows and skews younger, economies stagnate and start to collapse, and resources become scarcer. U.S. national security policy toward the MENA and trans-Sahara regions is at a point of high uncertainty, with a new administration developing strategies to address the security threats to the United States and its partner nations being caused by the region’s civil wars.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

33. Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:
Adel Bakawan
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Iraqi Kurdistan, previously known as a secure and stable region amidst the chaotic and shaken Middle East, was struck by a wave of attacks in 2016. Between September and December of that year, there were five recorded terrorist operations led by 249 Kurdish jihadists rallied by the Islamic State (ISIS) or Daesh, of which 47 were killed and 43 were arrested by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In fact, Iraqi Kurdistan, with a population of five million inhabitants, has supplied ISIS with 2,000 jihadists. Since the launch of the Mosul offensive on 17th October 2016, Kurdistan has been preparing itself, like many other countries in the region and a number of European countries, to face its worst nightmare: the Kurdish jihadists’ return to the country. Although a series of threats weigh upon the leaders of the KRG, such as social and economic crises, political division between rival parties; Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the prospect of a new civil war, and the intervention of neighbouring countries – the return of the Kurds of Daesh is currently the most troublesome.
Topic:
Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

34. The Gulf Crisis: Demonising Qatar through Fabrication

Author:
Dr. Mohamed Erraji
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
This paper reviews the role of media fabrication and propaganda in the current political crisis in the Gulf. Propagandists have deliberately created a new political reality to demonise Qatari politics and political leaders with a detailed political approach to create a prefabricated reality.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

35. Qatar’s battle for LNG market share

Author:
Stasa Salacanin
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In 2005, Qatar imposed a self-moratorium on future gas developments in the North Field, but has recently lifted it in defence of the country’s leading LNG market share as new global players rapidly expand their production.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

36. Political and Social Change in Egypt: Preludes to the January Uprising

Author:
Andrea Teti
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
The Arab Transformations Project is an international research project operating within the European Commission’s FP7 framework. The project looks comparatively at attitudes and behaviours in the context of the social, political and economic transformations taking place across Middle East and North Africa since February 2011. The countries covered are Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

37. MENA Population’s Perceptions of Key Challenges, International Context and the Role of the European Union

Author:
Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, Paolo Maggiolini, and Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
Survey data from the ArabTrans 2014 survey contains a unique battery of questions pertaining to the perception of the European Union. This report builds on those questions to analyse perceptions of the EU, its development cooperation programmes, its promotion of democracy, the appropriateness of its response to the Arab Uprisings, and the perception of the EU as an international actor. Overall, the data suggests low levels of awareness and relatively negative opinions of the EU’s actions both in general and in the specific context of its response to the Arab Uprisings. However, respondents’ preferences also suggest avenues for policy development for the Union such that it might simultaneously achieve its interests and meet the demands of MENA populations. Throughout, the paper also takes note of specific patterns and conditions found in individual countries which present particular challenges for the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

38. What do 'The People' (Still) Want? Conceptions of Democracy. Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 1

Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
EU policy towards its Southern Neighbour- hood aims to ensure the security of Member States and is underpinned by an assumption of a shared interest in democracy, security, and prosperity through economic liberalisation. It sees the main way of achieving these aims as promoting Western-style liberal democracy as a political system capable of providing peace and stability. Evidence from public opinion survey research shows this ambition is supported by citizens of Arab countries, where public opinion polls for over a decade report strong support for democracy. However, these citizens do not share the EU’s procedural conception of democracy, a conception in which civil and political rights are decoupled from – and prioritised over – social and economic rights. The Arab Transformations survey carried out in 2014 in six Arab states (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq) suggests few people demanded this brand of democracy. Furthermore, most people thought the EU has not done a good job of supporting transitions to democracy, nor did they have much appetite for EU involvement in the domestic politics of their countries.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, International Affairs, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East

39. Iraq After ISIS: Continued Conflict or Rebuilding Beyond Ethno-Sectarian Identity? Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 7

Author:
Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, and Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
With ISIS' influence declining, Iraq faces the challenge of rebuilding both its economy and its political system. • Amidst the devastation left by conflict, Iraq's political leaders have the opportunity to address the internal divisions which made ISIS possible. • Any post-conflict settlement must take into account the population's concerns and priorities. • Sectarian identity is less influential than commonly assumed in shaping people's political priorities: often more important are local conditions, particularly regarding security, the economy, and migration. • Ignoring popular priorities risks undermining post-ISIS attempts to build a stable country, with knock-on effects at a regional level.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

40. What Drives Migration from the Middle East? Why People Want to Leave Arab States

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
Data from the Arab Transformations public opinion survey provides strong indications about the nature of population movements from Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. As such they are crucial in designing responsive, evidence-based policy. ArabTrans data shows those who have considered migrating tend to be young, male, and with higher levels of education (the notable exception being Libya). In all countries surveyed, young people are more likely to have considered migrating; in nearly all countries the economy is the main driver of migration; and although a substantial portion of those considering migration think of a permanent move, large proportions are considering only temporary migration. This underscores the importance of economic policies which actually deliver inclusive growth and social cohesion. Two major conclusions can be drawn from this data: first, that the economic causes and strong temporary dimension of migration provide EU Member states with opportunities to reap the benefits of migration, both to the economy as a whole and to welfare systems in particular; second, that MENA countries of origin present significant internal differentiation suggesting policy should reflect specific national circumstances. The single major obstacle to public discussion and designing evidence-based policies which maximise the benefits of migration to both host countries and countries of origin is a political context which conflates and securitizes refugees and migrants. Paradoxically, the tone of this debate and the way policy is designed and implemented may have much to do with any socio-political polarisation of migrants in host countries
Topic:
Migration and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East