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312. Report of the Fact-Finding Mission to Lebanon inquiring into the causes, circumstances and consequences of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
- Author:
- Peter FitzGerald
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On 14 February 2005, an explosion in downtown Beirut killed twenty persons, among them the former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri. The United Nations' Secretary-General dispatched a Fact-Finding Mission to Beirut to inquire into the causes, the circumstances and the consequences of this assassination. Since it arrived in Beirut on 25 February, the Mission met with a large number of Lebanese officials and representatives of different political groups, performed a thorough review of the Lebanese investigation and legal proceedings, examined the crime scene and the evidence collected by the local police, collected and analyzed samples from the crime scene, and interviewed some witnesses in relation to the crime. The specific 'causes' for the assassination of Mr. Hariri cannot be reliably asserted until after the perpetrators of this crime are brought to justice. However, it is clear that the assassination took place in a political and security context marked by an acute polarization around the Syrian influence in Lebanon and a failure of the Lebanese State to provide adequate protection for its citizens. Regarding the circumstances, the Mission is of the view that the explosion was caused by a TNT charge of about 1000 KG placed most likely above the ground. The review of the investigation indicates that there was a distinct lack of commitment on the part of the Lebanese authorities to investigate the crime effectively, and that this investigation was not carried out in accordance with acceptable international standards. The Mission is also of the view that the Lebanese investigation lacks the confidence of the population necessary for its results to be accepted. The consequences of the assassination could be far-reaching. It seems to have unlocked the gates of political upheavals that were simmering throughout the last year. Accusations and counter-accusations are rife and aggravate the ongoing political polarization. Some accuse the Syrian security services and leadership of assassinating Mr. Hariri because he became an insurmountable obstacle to their influence in Lebanon. Syrian supporters maintain that he was assassinated by "the enemies of Syria"; those who wanted to create international pressure on the Syrian leadership in order to accelerate the demise of its influence in Lebanon and/or start a chain of reactions that would eventually force a 'regime change' inside Syria itself. Lebanese politicians from different backgrounds expressed to the Mission their fear that Lebanon could be caught in a possible showdown between Syria and the international community, with devastating consequences for Lebanese peace and security. After gathering the available facts, the Mission concluded that the Lebanese security services and the Syrian Military Intelligence bear the primary responsibility for the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon. The Lebanese security services have demonstrated serious and systematic negligence in carrying out the duties usually performed by a professional national security apparatus. In doing so, they have severely failed to provide the citizens of Lebanon with an acceptable level of security and, therefore, have contributed to the propagation of a culture of intimidation and impunity. The Syrian Military Intelligence shares this responsibility to the extent of its involvement in running the security services in Lebanon. It is also the Mission's conclusion that the Government of Syria bears primary responsibility for the political tension that preceded the assassination of former Prime Minister Mr. Hariri. The Government of Syria clearly exerted influence that goes beyond the reasonable exercise of cooperative or neighborly relations. It interfered with the details of governance in Lebanon in a heavy-handed and inflexible manner that was the primary reason for the political polarization that ensued. Without prejudice to the results of the investigation, it is obvious that this atmosphere provided the backdrop for the assassination of Mr. Hariri. It became clear to the Mission that the Lebanese investigation process suffers from serious flaws and has neither the capacity nor the commitment to reach a satisfactory and credible conclusion. To find the truth, it would be necessary to entrust the investigation to an international independent commission, comprising the different fields of expertise that are usually involved in carrying out similarly large investigations in national systems, with the necessary executive authority to carry out interrogations, searches, and other relevant tasks. Furthermore, it is more than doubtful that such an international commission could carry out its tasks satisfactorily - and receives the necessary active cooperation from local authorities - while the current leadership of the Lebanese security services remains in office. It is the Mission's conclusion that the restoration of the integrity and credibility of the Lebanese security apparatus is of vital importance to the security and stability of the country. A sustained effort to restructure, reform and retrain the Lebanese security services will be necessary to achieve this end, and will certainly require assistance and active engagement on the part of the international community. Finally, it is the Mission's view that international and regional political support will be necessary to safeguard Lebanon's national unity and to shield its fragile polity from unwarranted pressure. Improving the prospects of peace and security in the region would offer a more solid ground for restoring normalcy in Lebanon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
313. Insurgency: Modern Warfare Evolves into a Fourth Generation
- Author:
- Thomas X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- On May 1, 2003, President George W. Bush declared the end of major combat in Iraq. While most Americans rejoiced at this announcement, students of history understood that it simply meant the easy part was over. In the following months, peace did not break out, and the troops did not come home. In fact, Iraqi insurgents have struck back hard. Instead of peace, each day Americans read about the death of another soldier, the detonation of deadly car bombs, the assassination of civilians, and Iraqi unrest.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, and Middle East
314. Beyond Bonn: Revisioning the International Compact for Afghanistan
- Author:
- Peter Middlebrook and Mark Sedra
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The Bonn Agreement, signed on December 5, 2001, provided the road map for the transformation of the Afghan state, culminating in the September 18, 2005 legislative elections. The landmark polls, which proceeded largely peacefully, have elected an Afghan Parliament for the first time in more than three decades. Although the Bonn political process has made great strides toward facilitating Afghanistan's transition to democracy, the costs and challenges associated with the reform agenda are immense and continue to spiral. With a narrow revenue base, Afghanistan will remain dependent on support from the international community for many years to come, not just to cover the capital costs associated with reconstruction and poverty reduction but also to underwrite core operating expenditures. Once funding for Coalition military operations is factored in, the cost of maintaining relative peace and stability in Afghanistan could exceed the $16-18 billion per year currently being spent—a prohibitively high figure in light of creeping donor fatigue. With the security situation in the country still volatile, regional posturing intensifying, and the United States signaling that troop withdrawals are imminent, Afghanistan's transition remains fragile and uncertain. Senior Washington officials already quietly acknowledge that the reform process has failed to maintain the critical momentum that the Afghan government's landmark report, Securing Afghanistan's Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward, appeared to generate when it was launched at the spring 2004 Berlin Donors Conference.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
315. Karen Hughes' Indonesia Visit Underscores Bush Administration's PR Problems
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- It is doubtful that the Bush administration will be very successful advancing America's image in the Islamic world as long as its representatives have such trouble telling the truth. A case in point took place on October 21, when U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes was talking before a group of university students in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. As she has found elsewhere in her visits in the Islamic world, there is enormous popular opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the ongoing U.S. counter-insurgency war.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Indonesia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia
316. The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The election of the hard-line Teheran mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over former President Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani as the new head of Iran is undeniably a setback for those hoping to advance greater social and political freedom in that country. It should not necessarily be seen as a turn to the right by the Iranian electorate, however. The 70-year old Rafsanjani — a cleric and penultimate wheeler-dealer from the political establishment — was portrayed as the more moderate conservative. The fact that he had become a millionaire while in government was apparently seen as less important than his modest reform agenda. By contrast, the young Teheran mayor focused on the plight of the poor and cleaning up corruption.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
317. A Strategy for Ending the Iraq War
- Author:
- Tom Hayden
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- In January 2005, a group of fifty peace activists from the Vietnam and Iraq eras issued a global appeal to end the war (online at http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/20996/). The appeal proposed undermining the pillars of war (public opinion, funding, troop recruitment, international allies) and building the pillars of peace and justice (an independent anti-war movement linked to justice issues, a progressive Democratic opposition, soldiers and families against the war, a global network to stop the US empire). This is an update on implementation of the strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
318. Fuelling Mistrust Between Iran and the United States
- Author:
- Roger Howard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Imagine your reaction if, during last November's presidential contest, the mullahs of Iran had suddenly launched a tirade of criticism against the American system of democracy and beamed their message onto our television sets and radios for all of us to hear: democracy in the United States, the mullahs might perhaps have claimed, is a corrupt process that is determined largely by the influence of the wealthiest donors, and a process that wholly fails to address the religious needs of a secular, materialist culture.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
319. The Me Too Club
- Author:
- Tad Daley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The "nuclear option" may have receded in the U.S. Senate for the time being. Unfortunately, it's still very much on the table for the two newest aspirants to the nuclear club. Not to mention those who already have their membership cards.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
320. How to End the Occupation of Iraq: Outmaneuver the War Proponents
- Author:
- Gareth Porter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- For an anti-war activist of the Vietnam era, the current search for a political strategy for ending the U.S. occupation of Iraq brings to mind the very similar problems facing the movement to end the Vietnam War in 1968-69. In fact, a review of the strategy that the anti-war movement pursued at that juncture of the Vietnam War helps clarify the choices before the present movement and their likely consequences. It should serve as a warning against ignoring the possibility of embracing the negotiation of a compromise peace agreement with those resisting the U.S. occupation as an anti-war strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Vietnam