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71. The Future of the Middle East

Author:
Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Middle East is still in flux and will remain so for some time, it will possibly be another decade before the ultimate power balance is reached. Policy makers of Iraq and the KRI who wish to pursue paths of their own design, must look carefully at the trends in power dynamics and the policies of the global and regional powers before designing their strategies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

72. Yet Another Complication in Nineveh: Retaking Tal Afar

Author:
Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Hashd al-Shaabi launched an offensive on Tal Afar on 29 October; the looming recapture of Tal Afar prompted a strong reaction from Turkey, which maintains ties to the Turkmen population there. Tal Afar is thus yet another flashpoint of competing interests between Ankara, Erbil, Baghdad, and Tehran and can possibly further destabilise the situation in Nineveh.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

73. Competing Interests in Shingal: Yazidis Caught Between Millstones

Author:
Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Nearly two years since the north side of Shingal was liberated from the Islamic State, most of the Yazidi population is still displaced. Yazidis are trapped between millstones of the competition of exogenous actors, such as the KDP, the PKK-linked forces, and Baghdad, over the control of the strategically important disputed territory of Shingal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

74. Governing Nineveh After the Islamic State: A Solution for All Components

Author:
Dylan O’Driscoll and Dave van Zoonen
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This paper lays out three administrative options for the post-Islamic State governance of Nineveh and analyses the benefits and drawbacks related to each option. Despite minorities and international lobbying groups tied to the minorities favouring separate minority provinces, this paper argues against the formation of a Nineveh Plain province. A separate province would prevent efforts for reconciliation, is likely to induce new conflicts, and will ultimately not benefit minorities in the ways proponents of the plan claim. Similarly, the paper highlights that although decentralisation to the province through Law 21 could address a number of important issues, it would leave minorities in Nineveh too vulnerable to being marginalised and politically dominated by Sunnis. The main argument, and thus recommendation, of the paper is that the best available option for all components of Nineveh is the creation of a Nineveh federal region with entrenched power sharing and decentralisation within the region. This will provide the components of Nineveh with a political arena in which to address and overcome differences, while protecting minorities as well as Sunnis from being marginalised. Moreover, the creation of a region for Nineveh will have a stabilising effect on the wider Iraqi political system.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

75. A Development-Oriented Stabilisation Policy for Mosul

Author:
Irene Costantini
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) has not only surprised everyone with its cruelty but also by proving to be one of the world’s richest terrorist organisations. Now that its economic gains are draining due to military setbacks and financial strains, IS-held territories are increasingly struggling through economic hurdles – the challenge ahead is to link military interventions against IS with concrete economic plans.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

76. The Battle for Mosul; Pre and Post ‘Liberation’ Planning

Author:
Dylan O’Driscoll
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
There is the opportunity for the rebirth of Mosul and Nineveh, as well as for Iraq, but without a valid plan in place for the liberation of Mosul, that includes the formation of political agreements and huge post-conflict efforts of reconstruction, reconciliation and de-radicalisation, it will be a stillbirth rather than the beginning of a new and promising life.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

77. Is Austerity the Most Effective Policy to Solve the Present Financial Crisis?

Author:
Aram Mahmood
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The current policy of salary reductions might have been the only available emergency measure for the KRG to counter its empty treasury. However, continuing the current policy, focusing on a single sector of the economy is an unsuitable response to the on-going financial crisis and is likely to significantly dampen and delay recovery.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

78. Time for a Radical Rethink. Full report on the MERI Economic Forum 2016

Author:
MERI
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The MERI Economic Forum 2016 is the first of its kind to be held in Iraq or the Kurdistan Region. Iraq and the KRI, at the time of the forum in April 2016, were in the midst of a severe financial and economic crisis and searching for ways to move away from the rentier-state economic model to restructure and grow the economy.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

79. The Relative Importance of Religion and Region in Explaining Differences in Political Economic and Social Attitudes in Iraq in 2014: Findings from the Arab Transformations Public Opinion Survey

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
Based on the Arab Transformations survey of Iraq in 2014, this paper examines the relative weight of religious identification and region of residence in several key areas, including main challenges perceived by the population, perceptions of security, of economic conditions, of governance, political mobilisation, corruption, and migration. Contrary to the perception that sectarian identity is the most important factor in understanding contemporary Iraqi politics, this analysis shows that religious identification is often a confounding variable, and that regional location better captures variations in respondents’ perceptions, including in key areas such as security, the economy, and migration.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

80. The EU’s Policy Response to the Uprisings

Author:
Andrea Teti
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
The EU claimed it would learn the lessons of the Arab Uprisings with a ‘qualitative step forward’ in its approach to development, democracy, and security. However, an examination of the conceptual structure of revised EU Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) suggests EU policy changed little, and that in later incarnations it displayed a retrenchment towards conventional notions of democracy, development, and security, prioritising the latter over the former two. The Union seems to have failed to re-examine its approach to democracy, development, and security, falling back on approaches to all three which have been tried – and have failed – in the past.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East