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21. The Past in the Present: Ancient Patterns in the Emergent Middle East

Author:
Andrew Gilmour
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Humanitas
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
In all spheres of human life decision making can be more or less well informed and prudent. Sometimes ignorance or the passion of the moment yields disastrous results. Sometimes wise, circumspect decisions avert catastrophe. In politics and especially in foreign policy, the consequences of either good or bad leadership are potentially far-reaching. Those charged with making big decisions need to be as prepared as possible to understand the circumstances in which they are operating and to estimate the likely outcome of their actions. The effects of ignorance, superficiality, and rashness can be devastating. What best prepares foreign policy decision makers to carry out their duties responsibly is a topic of great importance. Here the purpose is to draw attention to one of the requirements for sound decision-making, that of understanding the extent to which the past, sometimes the ancient past, influences the present. A leader ignorant of that which came before may instead turn to a superficial or accustomed theory or set of assumptions, perhaps derived from a cherished ideology.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Middle East

22. Qods Day Advances Iran’s Regional Aspirations

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
“Qods Day” reflects Tehran’s determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

23. January 2019 Issue

Author:
Tore Hamming, Paul Cruickshank, Graham Macklin, Bryce Loidolt, and Jami Forbes
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In our cover article, Tore Hamming revisits the ideological origins of the Islamic State. He argues that “despite its history as a local al-Qa`ida affliate in Iraq, the Islamic State developed from an ideological and cultural trend born in late-1980s Afghanistan that was always in tension with the core idea and identity of al-Qa`ida,” setting the stage for the current bitter divide between the two groups and creating a significant obstacle to any reunification of the global jihadi movement. Our interview this month is with Rebecca Weiner, the Assistant Commissioner for Intelligence Analysis at NYPD, and Meghann Teubner, NYPD’s Director of Counterterrorism Intelligence Analysis. Despite the demise of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate, they have not seen much of a fall-off in jihadi terrorist plotting against New York City. While they assess Islamist terrorism remains the primary threat to the city, their focus on far-right terrorism is more intense than ever before. With concern about violent right-wing extremism rising on both sides of the Atlantic, Graham Macklin examines the evolving far-right terror threat picture in the United Kingdom, focusing in particular on the terrorist group National Action. In 2007, coalition forces captured Qais al-Khazali, the head of Asa`ib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), an Iran-backed Shi`a militia group accused of killing U.S. soldiers in Iraq. Al-Khazali was released in 2010, continues to lead AAH, and has become a significant political player in Iraq. Bryce Loidolt outlines how the recently declassified interrogation reports from al-Khazali’s time in custody reveal significant rifts between Shi`a militant power centers in Iraq and argues that such “rifts are likely to persist and will complicate Iran’s ability to project its influence in the future.” In 2018, al-Qa`ida’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri released more messages than in the previous year and ratcheted up his threat rhetoric against the United States. Jami Forbes warns al-Qa`ida’s increased media outreach may signal both a revitalization and that it is readying to pivot back to attacking its far enemies.
Topic:
Intelligence, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Media, Islamic State, Ideology, Shia, Jihad, Radical Right, and NYPD
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

24. Saudi First: How hyper-nationalism is transforming Saudi Arabia

Author:
Eman Alhussein
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia is embracing a new nationalism that is transforming domestic politics and the country’s foreign policy. The state is actively nurturing this nationalism, and has radically reduced the influence of the long-dominant religious establishment. A core purpose of the new nationalism is to speed the rise of the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and back his reform agenda. Social media and traditional outlets have swung forcefully in behind this, spreading ‘lines to take’ and exalting the state and its leadership above all else. But the leadership may have created a Trojan horse: already nationalists appear to be training their ferocity back on the state that created them.
Topic:
Nationalism, Religion, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

25. The United States’ Soft War with Iran

Author:
Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Iran is engaged in a soft war, or jang-e narm, with the United States. Iran uses formal and informal means to influence populations across the globe and has expanded its information campaign utilizing the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, cultural centers, universities, and charitable foundations. But Iran’s authoritarian political system and attempts to control access to information make it vulnerable to a U.S. and Western information campaign. Iran’s weaknesses​ suggest that a major component of U.S. competition with Tehran should be ideological.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Ideology, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

26. Berlin: Capital of European Antisemitism

Author:
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Berlin has surpassed Malmö as Europe’s antisemitism capital, with a wide variety of anti-Jewish and anti-Israel attitudes on display. They include dozens of cases of physical aggression against Jews, including rabbis. Jewish pupils have had to leave public schools. Thirty-five percent of Berliners view Israelis as analogous to Nazis. An Al-Quds Day march takes place annually that calls for the destruction of Israel. Both the municipality and the federal government are two-faced about the problem of antisemitism.
Topic:
Politics, Judaism, Ideology, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Germany

27. Political and Doctrinal Sources and Valuable Framework of the Political Islam in the Context of Political Ideologies

Author:
Nikola Gjorshoski
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The relation between religion and politics is a field of mutual interaction, as well as source and promoter of many historical, current, and probably future political movements, parties, and organizations. Political Islam represents the old-new dimension in the spectrum of contemporary political ideologies with specific characteristic and own socio-political worldview which pretend to penetrate into countries with Muslim inhabitants. The authors analyze those value’s elements, their first term, and modern interpretation, as well as their indicators for change. Level and dynamic of society’s development in many cases are determinate in political ideologies and Political Islam tries to present itself in this light with the affirmation of its/own postulates of organization and regulation on socio-political living. This paper in addition to analyzing those values’ framework logically offers and reviews of political doctrine sources which concept Political Islam in the whole of its time-space aspects.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, Religion, Ideology, Islamism, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

28. Numerous Factors: Why is ISIS trying to make a comeback to its previous strongholds?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
ISIS seems to be intent on returning to the areas from which it was driven out or its influence has receded over the past period, such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor in Syria. The two cities have recently witnessed a remarkable activity by ISIS, which is evident in the organization’s terrorist attacks against its opponents, raising many concerns that it may further expand, taking advantage of impasse over the Syrian crisis and the increasing security troubles in those areas.
Topic:
Terrorism, Islamic State, Conflict, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

29. In Turkey, the cult of Ataturk gives way to the cult of Erdogan

Author:
Arega Hovsepyan
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
After the attempted coup d’état of 15 July 2016, discussion inside expert circles about the construction of a “new” Turkey took on a new urgency. The result of the 2017 constitutional referendum remade Turkey’s political institutions, but the events of the 2016 coup attempt also catalyzed changes to the symbolism of the state. The ruling Justice and Development Party, whose slogans had long promised “a new Turkey,” was at the forefront of the surge in hardened messaging. The cornerstone of this “new Turkey” is а classical concentration of political power in the hands of one person, specifically President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Kemalism, Turkey’s founding ideology, is in the process of being replaced by the new ideology of the new president. Although it is still early to characterise this new ideology in Turkey as “Erdoğanism”, the similarities and contradictions of Kemalism and Erdoğanism lend insight on the structure of Turkish politics. The era of Erdoğan has been unleashed in Turkey, and moreover, its eponym is eager to not only replace the personality cult of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, but also to surpass the historic founder’s titanic image.
Topic:
Politics, History, Authoritarianism, Ideology, and Coup
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

30. Hamas Security Has Beards, Fatah Doesn’t: Why Real PA Unity Won’t Happen

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The conflict between Fatah and Hamas boils down to beards; between theocratic and nationalist ideals. Only a showdown can decide between Hamas and Fatah rule, with one side totally victorious and the other totally defeated, and it is doubtful that Fatah can muster the strength to make a bid for true power in Gaza.
Topic:
Conflict, Ideology, Hamas, Fatah, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza