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191. In the eye of the storm? (In)stability in Western Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Hamzeh al-Shadeedi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Iraqi Kurdistan has done well for itself in recent decades by carving out a largely autonomous region free of most governance and security interference from Baghdad. The alliance of convenience between the two pre-eminent Kurdish parties (PUK and KDP) effectively seized a number of opportunities to consolidate and expand Iraqi Kurdistan, such as the international no-fly zone (1991), the US intervention (2003), the crafting of a new constitution for Iraq (2005) and, arguably, even the rise of the Islamic State (IS) (2014). Yet, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) also faces a triple crisis. Politically, this includes the exclusive and increasingly repressive rule of the KDP and PUK in a context of mediocre governance, as well as strained relations between Erbil and Baghdad over the disputed territories. Economically, it includes a general downturn combined with serious financial disputes with Baghdad. Socially, it includes deteriorating popular satisfaction with the quality of rule and life in Kurdistan. In this report Erwin van Veen and al-Hamzeh al-Shadeedi analyse four factors that could drive future (in)stability in western Iraqi Kurdistan: 1) geopolitical tensions; 2) further clashes over the disputed territories; 3) growing dissatisfaction with the KDP and 4) protracted displacement. On balance, it does not consider the risk of immediate crisis or violence as being very high, but the report does note that many elements are in place that could easily trigger violent incidents with the potential of escalation. For each factor, the report proposes restraining factors, developments to monitor and trigger events. While international influence on the domestic politics of Iraqi Kurdistan is limited, coupling an offer of international (UN) mediation to facilitate resolution of the disputed territories with the development, or strengthening, of a dedicated fund that can rapidly initiate the reconstruction of the Greater Mosul area (including some of the disputed territories) would be a valuable intervention to further the peaceful development of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Topic:
Governance, Political stability, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

192. The Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The U.S. has learned many lessons in its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—most of them the hard way. It has had to adapt the strategies, tactics, and force structures designed to fight regular wars to conflicts dominated by non-state actors. It has had to deal with threats shaped by ideological extremism far more radical than the communist movements it struggled against in countries like Vietnam. It has found that the kind of “Revolution in Military Affairs,” or RMA, that helped the U.S. deter and encourage the collapses of the former Soviet Union does not win such conflicts against non-state actors, and that it faces a different mix of threats in each such war—such as in cases like Libya, Yemen, Somalia and a number of states in West Africa. The U.S. does have other strategic priorities: competition with China and Russia, and direct military threats from states like Iran and North Korea. At the same time, the U.S. is still seeking to find some form of stable civil solution to the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—as well as the conflicts Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and West Africa. Reporting by the UN, IMF, and World Bank also shows that the mix of demographic, political governance, and economic forces that created the extremist threats the U.S. and its strategic partners are now fighting have increased in much of the entire developing world since the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in 2001, and the political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The Burke Chair at CSIS has prepared a working paper that suggests the U.S. needs to build on the military lessons it has learned from its "long wars" in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other countries in order to carry out a new and different kind of “Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs,” or RCMA. This revolution involves very different kinds of warfighting and military efforts from the RMA. The U.S. must take full advantage of what it is learning about the need for different kinds of train and assist missions, the use of airpower, strategic communications, and ideological warfare. At the same time, the U.S. must integrate these military efforts with new civilian efforts that address the rise of extremist ideologies and internal civil conflicts. It must accept the reality that it is fighting "failed state" wars, where population pressures and unemployment, ethnic and sectarian differences, critical problems in politics and governance, and failures to meet basic economic needs are a key element of the conflict. In these elements of conflict, progress must be made in wartime to achieve any kind of victory, and that progress must continue if any stable form of resolution is to be successful.
Topic:
Civil Society, United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, Military Affairs, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, West Africa, Somalia, and Sundan

193. Stability in the Middle East: The Range of Short and Long-Term Causes

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas Harrington
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The Middle East has long been one of the most unstable regions in the world, and there are no present prospects for change in the near future. This instability is the result of ongoing conflicts and tensions, and a variety of political tensions and divisions. It also, however, is the result of a wide variety of long-term pressures growing out of poor governance, corruption, economic failures, demographic pressures and other forces within the civil sector.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East

194. From coup to constitution: The impact of Turkey’s attempted coup on the constitutional referendum – a series on Turkish constitutionalism, part 2

Author:
Mason Hill
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This is the second in a three part series on Turkish constitutionalism one year after the 2017 constitutional referendum. At Erdoğan’s election in 2002, he appeared to be the latest in a line of populists elected to office. Initially, his success seemed the result of an ability as an Islamist to appease the concerns of the secular establishment. This was bolstered by his stated commitment to Turkey’s accession to the European Union. While in the 1990s Islamist reformers failed to pass institutional reforms aimed at decreasing military control of Turkish politics, the military allowed Erdoğan the space to pursue institutional reform that would enhance Turkey’s chances of becoming a member of the European Union. This attempt by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to reimagine Turkish democracy for the 21st century took the form of a general push for constitutional reform.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Law, Elections, Constitution, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Coup
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

195. Turkey’s Social Assistance Regime: Is It Time For Basic Income?

Author:
Emrah Irzık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Founded on a rationale that is different than access to income and the benefits of social security systems such as pensions and health insurance which are earned in exchange for work, the importance of social assistances today is increasing both in the quantitative and in the qualitative senses. To what extent however is the present social assistances regime in Turkey that is fragmented, insufficient and based on debatable principles, able to respond to the changing face of poverty?
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Social Policy, and Universal Basic Income
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

196. On The Spatial and Legal Problems That Will Arise After Zoning Amnesty

Author:
Akif Burak Atlar
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The resurfacing of ‘populist’ legal arrangements such as raises for civil servants and pensioners, minimum wage policies, paid military service and debt restructuring that carry along vote potential are a strange tradition of our country’s politics. Zoning Peace is a legal arrangement that was part of the omnibus bill passed in the run up to the 24 June elections. As the 2018 version of zoning amnesties which have been recurring throughout Turkey’s urban history and creating spatial and legal chaos by redefining zoning rights, it has taken its place in the urban planning dictionary. What will then be the practical outcome of this new edition zoning amnesty?
Topic:
Governance, Legislation, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

197. An Assessment of Institutional and Legal Factors in Relation to Failure of Urban Regeneration

Author:
Tuna Kuyucu
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Large scale urban renewal projects, or ‘urban regeneration’ projects as commonly known in Turkey, are one of the most important political tools for the transition of cities from industry into service-heavy economic structures. Since 1970s regeneration projects have triggered substantial changes in urban economic geographies and caused extensive demographic shifts in the idle industrial, coastal and low socioeconomic residential areas of cities in late-capitalist countries. Yet, in Turkey they have started being implemented much later, with the first comprehensive regeneration policy devised in 2005 when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power. Until 2000’s there existed significant financial and legal barriers to urban renewal. Struggling with budget deficits and high interest rates throughout the 90s, the state was not financially capable of urban renewal, which requires significant resources. On the other hand, Turkey’s local governance policies and financing did not allow municipalities to implement such projects by themselves. Finally, private sector actors (real estate investment trusts, major contractors, finance companies) lacked either any interest or the resources for urban renewal projects in the pre-2002 period characterised by high interest rates and inflation. When all these factors combined, despite serious need for regeneration and renewal in Turkey’s cities, unfortunately regeneration projects almost never came to life.
Topic:
History, Governance, Legislation, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

198. Budget Transparency for Democratic Governance at the Local Level

Author:
Emre Koyuncu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
We are getting in the mood of the March 2019 local elections just as the general election has ended, and it looks as if the boat will be pushed out once again. Really, we do have a budget, right? At present, it remains an uncertainty how the central budget, our shared pool of resources, will be managed. Yet, we shall see how changes in the relations between the actors responsible for the tools, if not in the tools themselves, are reflected in practice. Hoping that they are at least transparent, we will examine budget transparency for democratic governance mainly through the lens of local government.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Elections, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

199. Developing Child-Sensitive Strategies in Local Government

Author:
Bürge Elvan Erginli
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief is published in the framework of “Inclusive Local Governance for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty. Actors of various sizes all participate in local programmes, plans and actions on the path towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals. International and regional cooperation are necessary for attaining these goals, for which central government may prove more crucial in its effects, while the inclusion of local actors is imperative for following both a more efficient path and achieving democratic participation. It is thus timely to highlight the importance of local participation in identifying and implementing the 11th Sustainable Development Goal, Sustainable City and Human Settlements. This goal, in which the issues of the right to the city under inclusion(1) the creation of accessible and safe urban spaces for all, and the active and direct participation of civil society come to the forefront, necessitates the active participation of metropolitan municipalities of local governments, as well as district municipalities which are in most contact on many issues with the city’s residents.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Children, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

200. Services For Children and Family In Istanbul District Municipalities

Author:
Bürge Elvan Erginli
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The project titled “Analyzing and Mapping Services for Children and Family in Istanbul District Municipalities” aims to produce a comprehensive inventory of social services for children and family provided by district municipalities and to develop policy proposals for improving the geographic distribution and qualities of these services within a framework of the socio-economic differentiation of Istanbul districts. This Bernard van Leer Foundation supported project has been carried out by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV). There has been collaboration with the Kadir Has University Istanbul Studies Center and the Union of Marmara Municipalities at various stages of the project. This report summarizes the stages of the studies carried out within the scope of the project and discusses the importance and use areas of the interactive website, which is an output of the project, from the perspective of both the municipalities and of other users. After the presentation of the findings and recommendations, the “Stratification of Neighborhoods with respect to Age and Mean Real Estate Values” maps and the “Municipality Services for Children and Family” data acquired through the project will be presented separately for each district.
Topic:
Governance, Children, Public Policy, Urban, and Services
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East