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152. Mullahs & COVID-19: Iran’s failing response reflects regime’s priorities
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
153. What we know about Iran five years after Netanyahu’s speech to Congress
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
154. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
155. Partial Local Autonomy in Southern Syria: Conditions, Durability, and Replicability
- Author:
- Alexander Decina
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In July 2018, Daraa Governorate, once home to an array of rebel groups and local governance councils, supported by significant international assistance, was partially recaptured by the Government of Syria (GoS). Through a combination of force and negotiations, the GoS has restored control over key routes and infrastructure, although a number of former rebel groups have retained limited autonomy in their own communities. Since then, poor security and economic conditions, inadequate services, and competition between and among GoS security actors and former opposition factions have challenged the status quo in Daraa, but, by and large, the situation has held. These negotiated outcomes – and the GoS’s willingness to accept them – were predicated upon multiple factors, including the relatively moderate nature of southern opposition factions, Russian and Israeli military postures, and the historical connections of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) in Daraa. While lessons learned from the south are important, the particular conditions and outcomes i
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Local, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
156. Syrian People’s Council Elections 2020: The Regime’s Social Base Contracts
- Author:
- Ziad Awad and Agnes Favier
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic crisis, the Syrian People’s Council elections were held in July 2020, following two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the electoral campaign slogans launched by the candidates – especially the independents – focused on economic concerns, and made reference to charitable contributions and propaganda from the candidates, the elections failed to capture the interest of the majority of constituencies in the territories controlled by the Bashar al-Assad regime. As usual, the ruling Baath Party controls the majority of seats in the new Council. Certain marginal parties allied with the Baath are also represented within the so-called National Progressive Front (NPF), which is led by the Baath itself. Independents rank second in terms of seat numbers after the Baathists. However, partisan affiliations are of no significance in terms of stances vis-à-vis the regime, since loyalty is a non-negotiable prerequisite for all 250 MPs, and indeed all candidates. Though the Baath Party retains an absolute majority of seats in parliament (66.8%), the elections demonstrated the inability of its leadership to revive the Party as an effective political tool capable of exercising influence by itself. First, the primaries for selecting Party candidates were marked by limited participation, accusations of corruption and widespread objections within the Party. Second, the parliamentary elections saw a historically low turnout (33%), illustrating the Party's inability to mobilise the electorate. Finally, attempts to renew the Baathist bloc in the People's Council resulted in the rise of military and paramilitary figures (with the entry into parliament of retired army and police officers); a growing influence of capital (with higher numbers of businessmen MPs); and the emergence of centres of power outside the traditional Party structure (with the entry of charity and development activists, backed by First Lady Asma al-Assad). This heterogeneity within the Baath’s parliamentary bloc illustrates the reality of the Party today, which appears weaker than it was before the outbreak of the revolution.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
157. OPEC+ as a new governor in Global Energy Governance
- Author:
- Rafał Ulatowski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- This article tries to evaluate the roots of the OPEC+ agreement, how it operates, and its prospects for the future. It argues that OPEC+ is a new governor in the Global Energy Governance (GEG) “regime complex”. It grew out of a convergence of the interests and capabilities of OPEC and non-OPEC exporters. The article shows that the emergence of OPEC+ is a consequence of over three decades of competition and occasional cooperation between exporters united in OPEC and those outside the organization. That cooperation was always a consequence of the price war and the demand of OPEC members for cooperation with non-OPEC exporters. Intensive consultations and three agreements on production cuts between both groups of countries in the years 2016-2019 made it possible to begin the institutionalization of cooperation among them. Cooperation within the OPEC+ agreement is nonformalized, based on government-to-government negotiations, and flexible. The signatories to the OPEC + agreement decided to avoid founding any formal IGO, and OPEC + continues to exist as a summit process.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Oil, Governance, and OPEC
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
158. Global Forums: Are They Must or Waste for the Global Governance?
- Author:
- Gülen Derya Zayim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The age of globalization has brought about interdependency between the nation-states in all aspects of life while uncovering challenges for the sovereignty of the nations. Therefore, how an integrated world system involving multiple actors can efficiently be governed remain a subject of serious discussions. This study briefly explains the historical background of G7/8 along with its evolution to G20 and discusses their effectiveness and legitimacy in the context of global governance. It is worthy to discuss the issue since these global forums’ legitimacy and effectiveness subject to both critics and praises. Although the lessons from the global financial crisis consolidates the idea of global coherence, integrity and compliance, diverging political and economic conflict of interest of nations still make the international forums’ existence and future position in global governance open to discussions. Additionally, the last part of the study draws conclusion about Turkey and its place in global governance.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Financial Crisis, Governance, and G20
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Global Focus, and Mediterranean
159. The protests in Iraq: Corruption and foreign interference in the firing line
- Author:
- Mariette Hagglund
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Recent large-scale protests in Iraq reveal deep dissatisfaction with the political elite and the dysfunctional system of governance. The protests could pose a threat to Iran’s foreign policy, whose channels of influence lie within parts of the Shia political elite in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Religion, Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
160. No Reason to Fear PA Economic Collapse
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As dysfunctional as the Palestinian national movement has become, it has excelled in perpetuating the pork barrel born in Oslo.
- Topic:
- Economics, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine