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842. Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ebru Oğurlu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasingly fraught with growing competition between regional players, most notably Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel, signalling an apparent return of power politics in regional relations. Of all actors involved, Turkey stands out for being both an ever more influential power and a source of serious concern to other countries in the region due to its greater assertiveness and perceived hegemonic ambitions. Against the backdrop of recent regional developments and their international implications, including the dispute over drilling rights off Cyprus' coasts, Turkey's image as a constructive and dialogue-oriented country, a critical achievement pursued by a generation of Turkish politicians, diplomats and officials, risks being replaced by one of an antagonistic/assertive power. Facing the first serious challenge to its claim to embody a benign model as a secular Muslim democracy and a responsible international actor, Turkey should not indulge in emotional reactions. It should opt instead for a more moderate and balanced approach based on the assumption that only cooperation and constructive dialogue, even with rival countries, can help it realize its ambition of being the regional pivot.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, Colombia, and Cyprus
843. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict
- Author:
- John Bowlus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
844. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Philip K. Verleger
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
845. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership
- Author:
- Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East
846. Syria: What China Has Learned From its Libya Experience
- Author:
- Yun Sun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China's joint veto along with Russia of the UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) on Syria has provoked fierce international criticism. Labeled as “responsible for Syria's genocide,” Beijing's international image has struck a new low. China's decision to cast the unpopular vote was apparently well thought-out, as evidenced by its consistent diplomatic rhetoric and actions, both before and after the veto. However, in analyzing China's motivation, many analysts seemed to have missed an important point. That is, China's experience concerning Libya in 2011 had a direct impact on its actions regarding Syria this time around.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Insurgency, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria
847. Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook 2012
- Author:
- Hans Mouritzen (ed) and Nanna Hvidt (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Permanent Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs analyses Danish foreign-policy priorities in 2011. The troublesome situation for the global econ-omy, including an uncertain outlook for the future, was the most impor-tant backdrop for Danish foreign policy in that year. Low growth prospects, combined with high levels of public debt, had wide foreign-policy implica-tions, amongst other things for the agenda of the EU and as a result also for the preparations for the Danish EU Presidency in the first half of 2012. This article therefore takes its point of departure in the state of the global economy, the state of the European economies and the challenges that this presented to the EU. It then goes on to discuss the emerging world powers, the Arab Spring, the world's conflict areas, security policy, Denmark's north-ern neighbours and various global issues, such as development cooperation, green growth and human rights. Finally, some reflections are offered on the core tasks of the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs at a time when there is increased pressure on Denmark's public finances and the world influence of Denmark's traditional partners and allies is waning.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Arab Countries, Denmark, and North Africa
848. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
849. Bahrain and the global balance of power after the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Lars Erslev Andersen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The global balance of power is changing, and the role of the US as the only superpower is being challenged by emerging new powers and a still more powerful China. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf. This Working Paper by DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen argues that if we are fully to understand the developments in the Persian Gulf we need to analyze the Persian Gulf as a regional security complex in its own right. The argument is developed empirically with reference to the case of Bahrain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain
850. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Alexander Wilner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The most threatening form of US and Iranian competition takes place in the military and security arena. The areas where this competition now gets primary attention are the nuclear and missile arena, and Iranian threats to “close the Gulf.” US and Iranian tensions over Iran's nuclear program have grown steadily over the years. They now threaten to reach the crisis point as Iran produces highly enriched uranium and develops all of the technology necessary to produce nuclear weapons, and as US, European, and UN sanctions become steadily stronger.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Oil, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United Nations