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801. Yemen's domestic and regional politics

Author:
Bernard Haykel
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Yemen is politically fragmented by three decades of misrule. Many political actors and constituencies oppose the Salih legacy and they need to be included in any future political framework if the country is to become stable. The main regional actor is Saudi Arabia, whereas the U.S. remains the principal hegemon in the region. Saudi Arabia's policy towards Yemen is in flux, whereas the U.S. is too narrowly focused on the threat posed by al-Qaeda. Unless the U.S. and the Saudis change their policies, Yemen will not develop a strong central government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Islam, Armed Struggle, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

802. Turkish and Iranian interests and policies in the South Caucasus

Author:
Evanthia Balla
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The South Caucasus, situated as it is at the crossroads of Eurasia's major energy and transport corridors, continues to play a vital role in the world's security affairs. After the end of the cold war the South Caucasus emerged as a key region in the geopolitical contest among regional and global powers. The South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are constantly performing a balancing act in their relations with the U.S., Russia, Turkey and Iran. Armenia has developed strong political and economic ties with Iran in order to counter the Turkish-Azerbaijani axis. Azerbaijan seeks to reinforce its links with the West, especially the U.S., as its main extraregional source of diplomatic and economic support, while it remains cautious towards both Russian and Iranian ambitions in the region. Especially after the 2008 war with Russia and the loss of its provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia has reinforced its links to Western powers and structures while strengthening its ties with Turkey. Both Turkey and Iran are trying to increase their influence in the region, while promoting their national interests in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, and Middle East

803. Mısır Dış Politikası Nasıl Analiz Edilmeli? Yöntem, Soru(n)lar ve Açmazlar | How should be analysed Egyptian Foreign Policy? Method, Questions and Dilemmas

Author:
Mehmet Ozkan
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Bugünkü Mısır’ın en temel sorunu iç politikada yaşanan hızlı gelişmeler ve istikrarsızlıklar olarak değerlendirilse de Arap dünyasında ve Mısır’da yaşanan devrim, dış politika bağlamında yeni ufuklar ve sorunlar ortaya çıkardığı gibi bölge ve ötesi için de yeni imkanlar sunmuştur. Mısır dış politikasının geçmişten bu yana karşılaştığı en temel sorun, kültürel havza niteliğindeki bir ülke olarak, bu zenginliğin dış politikasına tutarlı bir şeklide yansıtıp yansıtamadığıdır. Mısır eğer üçlü kimlik yapısını oluşturan “Arap”, “Afrikalı” ve “Akdeniz dolayısıyla Batılı” karakterini tutarlı ve koordineli bir şekilde dış politikasına yansıtamaz ve bu üzerinden bir politika belirleyemezse, Mısır dış politikası kısa dönemli başarılı olsa bile uzun vadeli sonuçları itibariyla başarısız olmaya mahkum gözükmektedir. Sadece modern dönem olan Nasır, Sedat ve Mubarek dönemleri incelenince bile bunu görmek mümkündür. Arap Baharı’yla beraber başlayan süreç bu anlamda tarihi bir fırsatı barındırmaktadır. Hem sosyal dinamiklerin – ve dolayısıyla kimliklerin – yeniden yapılandırıldığı bu dönemde bu hem bir fırsat hem de Ortadoğu’da yaşanan sistemle ilgili dönüşümde Mısır’ın sağlıklı katkısına ihtiyaç bir zorunluluktur. Bu tür bir yeniden yapılanma aynı zamanda Mısır’ın entellektüel ve siyasal liderliğinin önünü açacaktır. Bu analiz Mısır dış politikasını geçmişten günümüze bu çerçevede bir değerlendirmesini yapmaktadır. | There is an overall consensus regarding Egyptian foreign policy, that internal dynamics and destabilized environment pose a threat for foreign policy making, however revolutions in Egypt and the region created a great potential as well as their challenges and difficulties. Throughout its history the main concern of Egyptian foreign policy has been the lack of influence related to its cultural heritage and identity. Unless there is a coherent balance between Egypt’s triple identity, namely “Arab”, “African” and “Mediterranean/Western”, created; Egypt will lose its strategic position and impact in the region in the long run if not in short term. One can easily observe the situation from three moments in modern history of Egypt: Nasr, Sadat and Mubarak`s periods. The process that has been sparked with Arab Spring is a great opportunity in this sense. Within this process social dynamics identity as well are transforming in the sense that there is both an opportunity as well as a responsibility upon Egypt’s shoulders to contribute for regional readjustment. The initiative will open room for intellectual and discursive domination of the region by Egypt. This article focuses an evaluation of Egyptian foreign policy from this perspective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Revolution, and Mohammed Morsi
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

804. The Gulf Military Balance Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
No single aspect of US and Iranian military competition is potentially more dangerous than the missile and nuclear dimensions, and the possibility Iran will deploy long-range, nuclear-armed missiles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

805. Federated Defense Project

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security challenges-such as terrorism, threats to freedom of the seas and air, and cyber threats-are best met with multilateral action. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security investments, working together is of increasing importance. This is perhaps most evident in the Middle East and Asia, where real and potential threats to U.S. and partner security are high and our interests great.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Asia

806. The Myth or Reality of US Energy Independence

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
US “independence” from energy imports has been a key source of political dispute ever since the October War in 1973 and the Arab oil embargo that followed. Much of this debate has ignored or misstated the nature of the data available on what the US options are, as well as the uncertainties involved in making any long range projections.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

807. Wahhabism vs. Wahhabism: Qatar Challenges Saudi Arabia

Author:
James M Dorsey
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Qatar, a tiny energy-rich state in terms of territory and population, has exploded on to the world map as a major rival to the region’s behemoth, Saudi Arabia. By projecting itself through an activist foreign policy, an acclaimed and at times controversial global broadcaster, an airline that has turned it into a transportation hub and a host of mega sporting events, Qatar has sought to develop the soft power needed to compensate for its inability to ensure its security, safety and defence militarily. In doing so, it has demonstrated that size no longer necessarily is the determining factor for a state’s ability to enhance its influence and power. Its challenge to Saudi Arabia is magnified by the fact that it alongside the kingdom is the world’s only state that adheres to Wahhabism, an austere interpretation in Islam. Qatari conservatism is however everything but a mirror image of Saudi Arabia’s stark way of life with its powerful, conservative clergy, absolute gender segregation; total ban on alcohol and houses of worship for adherents of other religions, and refusal to accommodate alternative lifestyles or religious practices. Qatar’s alternative adaptation of Wahhabism coupled with its lack of an indigenous clergy and long-standing relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, the region’s only organised opposition force, complicate its relationship with Saudi Arabia and elevate it to a potentially serious threat.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Persian Gulf

808. Making the Case: What is America's Best Bad Option in Syria?

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
President Obama drew a "red line" for Syria: if the Assad regime used its chemical weapons, such a move would "change [the] calculus" for an American response. As the UN and others investigate whether Assad has indeed crossed that red line, the U.S. must consider its options—because a failure to act could undermine our credibility. But "further action" is a broad category in the Syrian conflict. Our options range from increasing non-lethal aid to deploying troops in Syria. In this guide to the debate, we provide answers to six key questions: What are America's security interests in Syria? Which rebel groups should we support? What are Syria's military capabilities? What is the status of Syria's chemical weapons? What are the international community's options? What are America's options?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Syria, and North America

809. Making the Case: Think Twice Before Punishing Egypt

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Despite serious, continuing concerns with the Egyptian government—including a return to authoritarianism and the president's use of anti-Semitic slurs—America should not gut its foreign aid to Cairo. Here's how to make the case against punishing the Egyptian government and in favor of continuing U.S. assistance: Egypt plays a critical role in the region and in America's security interests there. U.S. businesses get a return when we provide aid to Egypt. The bulk of our aid goes to the most stable pillar of secular Egyptian society: the military. Things could get much, much worse in Egypt—and for us.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Struggle, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, North America, and Egypt

810. Building a Better US-Gulf Partnership

Author:
Richard LeBaron
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Tension between the United States and its partners in the Gulf flared up visibly in the last several months, notably with Saudi Arabia's public displays of displeasure with the US approach to the Syria conflict, nervousness about an interim nuclear deal with Iran, and sharp differences over Egypt. Gulf distrust of US intentions and actions is nothing new, and is in no small part rooted in the Gulf states' deep frustration with how the United States executed the war in Iraq, which they perceive as placing Iraq under Iran's sphere of influence. But these latest tensions also point to a fundamental gap in expectations about the US role in the region and its commitment to security for the Gulf states.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt