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771. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and Egypt

772. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy

Author:
Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

773. Losing Syria and Iraq to Jihadists

Author:
Faysal Itani
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Jihadists are steadily capturing territory and resources and establishing a state in Syria and Iraq. The most capable jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), now controls swathes of territory, energy resources, and sophisticated military hardware in both countries. Although the extremists are currently occupied with fighting other nonregime armed groups and the Syrian and Iraqi regimes, these efforts are a means to an end: building a state from which to confront and target the United States, its allies, and its interests in the region. These jihadist groups also bring boundless suffering to the populations they control, and serve as a magnet for and inspiration to jihadists worldwide.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

774. Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook 2014

Author:
Nanna Hvidt and Hans Mouritzen (eds.)
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Danish Foreign Policy and the activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2013 were marked by the continuing economic and political diffusion of power on the global stage – a development that generates dynamism and new opportunities in the globalised world, but also challenges the position of Europe. The Permanent Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs describes the political and economic developments in the world – which have led to a far-reaching reorganisation of Danish diplomatic representations abroad – and analyses the most important Danish foreign policy priorities of 2013. The article emphasizes trends in the EU, in international security, and regarding the Arctic and the transatlantic dimensions, as well as developments in the Middle East, Asia and Africa, and finally global development trends.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

775. Qatar and the Recalibration of Power in the Gulf

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Long a minor regional actor in the shadow of Saudi Arabia, Qatar wants to increase its influence. But Doha's expansionist foreign policy has been plagued by miscalculations, domestic challenges, and international pressure—all issues connected to Doha's relationship with Riyadh. As a result of these setbacks, Qatar's regional role has diminished, and for the foreseeable future, its external influence is likely to remain under the direction of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar

776. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2013 (English/Arabic)

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The report entails the findings of the fifth annual survey conducted by TESEV Foreign Policy Programme in collaboration with KA Research between August 15- September 13, 2013. As in previous years, the public opinion survey reveals interesting insights into the recent Middle Eastern viewpoints, perceptions and expectations. 2800 Respondents from 16 countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Iraq and Iran) of the region reflect on Turkey’s role and regional challenges in the light of current happenings.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Tunisia, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

777. Shifting Sands: The United States in the Middle East

Author:
Joel S. Migdal
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Joel S. Migdal revisits the approach U.S. officials have adopted toward the Middle East since World War II, which paid scant attention to tectonic shifts in the region. After the war, the United States did not restrict its strategic model to the Middle East. Beginning with Harry S. Truman, American presidents applied a uniform strategy rooted in the country's Cold War experience in Europe to regions across the globe, designed to project America into nearly every corner of the world while limiting costs and overreach. The approach was simple: find a local power that could play Great Britain's role in Europe after the war, sharing the burden of exercising power, and establish a security alliance along the lines of NATO. Yet regional changes following the creation of Israel, the Free Officers Coup in Egypt, the rise of Arab nationalism from 1948 to 1952, and, later, the Iranian Revolution and the Egypt-Israel peace treaty in 1979 complicated this project. Migdal shows how insufficient attention to these key transformations led to a series of missteps and misconceptions in the twentieth century. With the Arab uprisings of 2009 through 2011 prompting another major shift, Migdal sees an opportunity for the United States to deploy a new, more workable strategy, and he concludes with a plan for gaining a stable foothold in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Cold War, and Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East
Publication Identifier:
9780231536349
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

778. Turkey’s New Vision for “Man’s Best Hope for Peace”: United Nations Reform and Reorganization of the Security Council

Author:
C. Akça Ataç
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Despite its present reputation as weak, inefficient, and discreditable, the United Nations is one of humanity’s most noble endeavors. Although the structure of the Security Council prevents its decision-making procedures from being more democratic, the UN still seeks to suppress aggression, respect self-determination, and promote human rights and well-being. Furthermore, political cosmopolitans’ proposals for comprehensive UN reform, which goes far beyond increasing the number of permanent members of the Security Council, give us hope for substantial improvement. Nevertheless, the UN is still the sum of the states it is comprised of and UN reform depends on the broader and ambitious project of state reform as both concept and practice. Within this context, this paper argues that focusing exclusively on the Security Council and the geographical distribution of permanent membership only harms the comprehensiveness of the analyses seeking to reform the UN from a larger perspective. The fact that the success of a UN reform is closely related with the enhancement of member states’ ethical capacities should also be taken into consideration. The next round of debates for a proper solution to the UN impasse takes place in 2015, and Turkey is emerging as an enthusiastic voice for further reform and for its own potential permanent membership in the Security Council. However, Turkey has also developed a significantly anti-UN discourse unprecedented in its foreign policy, which now runs the risk of curtailing the country’s capacity to partake in substantial change in UN decision-making procedures. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu currently acts as a statesman, insisting on a statist reform (which focuses more on states’ individual interests) of the Security Council. Interestingly, in the 1990s, when Davutoğlu was a university professor, his views of the UN tended to be more cosmopolitan and suggested a civilization-based solution. This paper, while elaborating on the discussions of reforming the UN from a cosmopolitan perspective, also probes Davutoğlu’s conflicting approaches to the issue. It thus seeks to argue that Turkey, instead of pushing for a purely statist model, should consider supporting pluralistic, multilevel, and more-complex participation in the UN’s decision-making procedures.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, United Nations, Reform, UN Security Council, and Ahmet Davutoğlu
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

779. Geneva Deal: Beginning of a New Era between Iran-Us Relations

Author:
Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
In the present era, the Iran-US relations carry greater significance in the world politics. The diplomatic relations between both countries have remained suspended since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. But now after three decades when Iran has elected its new President, a shift has been observed in Iranian policies towards West and both sides are willing to melt the ice through an interim deal in Geneva. Though this deal has its positive aspects yet the prospects and fears along with its pros and cons in the days to come cannot be brushed aside. This paper is an attempt to analyze how this agreement will have its impact on the Middle Eastern region in reshaping the balance of power. The study will also discuss how Iran will have to face the harsh screening safeguards along with the introduction of Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Imperialism, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Hezbollah, and World War II
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, United States of America, and North America

780. Pakistan and the Question of Recognising Israel: Historical Issues and Future Prospects

Author:
Umbreen Javaid and Malik Tauqir Ahmad Khan
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Historically speaking Pakistan and Israel are not directly engaged in any hostility or clash with each other. Pakistan did not recognise Israel since its inception because of her consistent support to Palestine issue and its apprehension that India Israel connections are against her security, ultimately shattering sub-continental balance of power. During General Musharraf regime, the debate to recognise Israel was on high side. It had been debated at academic, official as well as public levels. It was believed at that time that if Pakistan accord recognition to sate of Israel, the sensitivities associated with the issue might change. The cost and advantage quotient of recognition were kept in mind and discussed openly. During Musharraf regime and onwards, the moot point in Pakistan has been the cost benefit analysis of recognition. The existing world scenario has changed the ground realities and placed Pakistan in a difficult situation that how it can move closer to Israel without abandoning historical stand on Palestinian cause. It is also believed that if the transformation and change in Pakistan’s policy is not hasty, only then it might be more productive and successful. The eventuality of recognising Israel might spur the sentiments of public and it may take some time to have popular placement in our society By analysing different and conflicting view points, this paper will investigate primarily the debate held during Musharraf era in the light of historical background and shall see what course Pakistan should take on in this regard after assessing pros and cons of recognition. After going through different approaches on the subject, this will also contribute whether Pakistan should shift her stance about Israel or otherwise.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine