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1121. Iraq Is the Central Front

Author:
Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On the evening of September 7, President George W. Bush declared the struggle to establish a more decent political order in Iraq "the central front" in the global war on terror. This was not merely a rhetorical flourish in the president's speech. Rather, it represents a further clarification of the Bush Doctrine and of U.S. national security strategy for the twenty-first century. What is at stake in Iraq extends beyond the borders of Mesopotamia. It defines what sort of world the American superpower wants-and what sort of sacrifices it is willing to make to create it.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1122. Fighting Terror: Lessons and Implications from the Iraqi Theater

Author:
Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
U.S. military operations in Iraq offer valuable lessons about the broader global war against terror. The ultimate prize in this conflict was never simply Saddam Hussein's elusive weapons programs, but the chance to establish a more durable international order. In sweeping aside the Ba'athist regime and by helping the Iraqi people build a prosperous, pluralistic, democratic society, the struggle between the forces of political liberty and the forces of repressive Islamism is now being joined in the heart of the Arab world. It is a battle we cannot afford to lose.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

1123. Democratic Mirage in the Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Thomas Carothers, Amy Hawthorne, and Daniel Brumberg
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The increasingly popular idea in Washington that the United States, by toppling Saddam Hussein, can rapidly democratize Iraq and unleash a democratic tsunami in the Middle East is a dangerous fantasy. The U.S. record of building democracy after invading other countries is mixed at best and the Bush administration's commitment to a massive reconstruction effort in Iraq is doubtful. The repercussions of an intervention in Iraq will be as likely to complicate the spread of democracy in the Middle East as promote it. The United States has an important role to play in fostering democracy in the region, but the task will be slow and difficult given the unpromising terrain and lack of U.S. leverage over key governments.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Middle East

1124. Sanctions, Inspections, and Containment: Viable Policy Options in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, and George A. Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
Concerns are growing that Iraq may be rebuilding its capacity to develop and use weapons of mass destruction. After more than three years without UN inspections, the uncertainties and risks associated with Iraq's weapons programs have increased. The urgency of these issues has prompted widespread calls for the resumption of UN weapons inspections, and has led U.S. officials to threaten military attack. The U.S. threats are also motivated by a desire to overthrow the government of Iraq. Pundits in the United States have raised a chorus of calls for military action to topple Saddam Hussein. Many leaders in the region support the goal of disarming Iraq, but as U.S. vice president Dick Cheney learned during his March trip to the Middle East, most of these same leaders oppose U.S. military action against Iraq. States in the region fear the consequences of a U.S.-led war, especially in light of the profound security crisis in the Middle East. These realities suggest the need for viable alternative strategies to resolve the Iraq crisis and protect regional security. This report presents policy options available to the United States for addressing security concerns in Iraq. It examines the issues associated with the threat of weapons development in the region and offers a series of policy options for reducing and containing that threat without resort to military force. The report does not dwell on the uncertainties and risks of waging war on Iraq without international consent. These have been amply examined in other articles and commentaries. The paper concentrates instead on robust alternatives to the use of force. The policy options outlined here include: Reforming UN sanctions to tighten controls on oil revenues and military-related goods while further easing restrictions on civilian economic activity; Facilitating the return of UN weapons inspectors to complete the UN disarmament mandate and reestablish an Ongoing Monitoring and Verification (OMV) system; and Creating an "enhanced containment" system of externally based border monitoring and control if Iraq refuses to allow the resumption of weapons inspections. The report begins with an assessment of Iraq's capacity for developing weapons of mass destruction. It then examines options for controlling Iraq's weapons potential through economic statecraft, United Nations weapons inspections and diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1125. The Phalcon Sale to China: The Lessons for Israel

Author:
Jonathan Adelman
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israeli decision, under intense American pressure, to cancel the sale of the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning System to China during the Camp David summit in July 2000 threatens to be a major foreign policy debacle for Israel.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

1126. U.S.-Iran Relations: Normalization in the Future?

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, the United States has tried to find a framework for understanding this enigmatic country. America defended its commitments to help an ailing Shah in exile but was ill prepared to deal with the crises that raged in and around Iran in the 1980s: U.S. diplomats were held hostage in Tehran for 444 days, militant clerics tried to export revolutionary Islamic governance across the Gulf, and Iraq invaded Iran, ostensibly to stave off a Shiah Islamist tidal wave.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

1127. Challenges for the Justice and Development Party Government in Turkey

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Turkish parliament will meet tomorrow for its first session since the elections of November 3, in which a party with an Islamist pedigree – the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) – secured a majority, winning 363 of 550 seats (the social-democratic Republican People's Party [CHP] is the only other party in parliament, with 178 seats; independents won the remaining 9 seats). Over the next few days, AKP leader Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with President Necdet Sezer, who has the power to appoint the next prime minister. For the first time since 1954, Turkey has a two-party parliament, in which AKP will rule. Will this be a successful experiment? What are some of the challenges facing this government?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

1128. Upcoming Turkish Elections: Likely Winners and Implications for Foreign Policy

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, the Turks will go to the polls to elect their new government. The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with Islamist pedigree – the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – to power. Should Washington worry about the foreign policy orientation of a new Turkish administration and its willingness to support a military campaign against Iraq?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1129. Enhancing the Turkish-American Alliance: The Campaign for Iraq and Other Possibilities

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1130. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran's Place in the Axis: Signs of Movement?

Author:
Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation — two areas in which Iran has been particularly active — as top-priority issues, while the previous administration predicated its policy on certain developments within Iran. The parameters for evaluating Iranian foreign policy and U.S.-Iran relations have changed, particularly on the issue of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia