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1012. Does the “Surge” Explain Iraq’s Improved Security?
- Author:
- Jon R. Lindsay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Sen. John McCain has long advocated “sustained and substantial” troop increases,1 attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s position on drawing down forces. Obama for his part recently stated that the surge has “succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated” and “beyond our wildest dreams.”2 Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of Multi- National Corps Iraq during the surge, told a Heritage Foundation audience in March 2008, “I think it’s safe to say that the surge of Coalition forces—and how we employed those forces—have broken the cycle of sectarian violence in Iraq.”3 While the surge was quite controversial in its inception,4 it now seems that “success has a thou- sand fathers.” Indeed, since the deployment starting in January 2007 of an additional 30,000 troops (five addi- tional Army brigades primarily in and around Baghdad and 4,000 Marines in Anbar Province, rising to a high-water mark of 171,000 U.S. troops in Iraq by October 2007), the drop in vio- lence has been remarkable. From December 2006 to August 2008, monthly insurgent-initiated attacks have dropped from over 5,600 to 800, U.S. troop fatalities from 112 to 23, and Iraqi civilian fatalities from 3,500 to 500. Even though we’re hardly out of the woods, the troop surge is clearly correlated with a major decrease in violence.5 Correlation, of course, is not causation. Lt. Gen. Odierno is right to highlight the employment of surge forces in addition to the increase in their numbers. The renewed focus on providing security to the Iraqi population—by pushing troops out of sprawling Forward Operating Bases and proactively controlling movement within major cities—has truly been a change for the bet- ter. Nevertheless, there are factors above and beyond additional troops and better counter-insur- gency tactics that may account for the drop in violence. These include the Sunni Awakening movements that emerged in Anbar province prior to the surge, the tragic efficacy of sectarian killing in 2006, the Shia Mahdi Army cease-fire announced and renewed by Moqtada al-Sadr, and operations by other U.S. organizations not associated with the surge.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
1013. The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry
- Author:
- Barnett R. Rubin and Sara Batmanglich
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been over- shadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confronta- tion has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found. During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to sup- port efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul’s dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
1014. Turkey – Armenia Relations: A Vicious Circle
- Author:
- Aybars Görgülü
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- Turkey – Armenian Relations: A Vicious Cycle’ is published as a part of TESEV’s Foreign Policy Analysis Series. In this report, Aybars Görgülü surveys the past 17 years of Turkish – Armenian relations, identifies key issues, narrates diplomatic and civic efforts that address them, and in doing so he emphasizes the necessities to normalize Turkey – Armenian relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Armenia
1015. Is The “Surge” Working? Some New Facts
- Author:
- Michael Greenstone
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military “Surge” on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new da ta file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge's impact on three key dimensions: the functioning of the Iraqi state (including civilian casualties); military casualties; and financial markets' assessment of Iraq's future. The new and unusually rigorous findings presented here should help inform current evaluations of the Surge and provide a basis for better decision making about future strategy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
1016. TURKEY AND EUROPE: THE WAY AHEAD
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The pro-reform AK Party's resounding victory in the July 2007 parliamentary elections gives both it and the European Union (EU) a chance to relaunch Turkey's accession process, which has floundered since 2005 due to Europe's enlargement fatigue and a neo-nationalist backlash in the country. That process, pursued with real application, has the capacity to help both sides. Popular opinion may show fatigue but leaders and diplomats need to keep avenues open for when political confidence returns, as past experience with the enlargement process suggests it can.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
1017. PolicyWatch #1297: Iran Sanctions: Can They Be Effective?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Today, the State and Treasury Departments announced a new package of sweeping unilateral sanctions targeting multiple entities in Iran, including three banks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Qods Force, the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, several IRGC-affiliated companies, and eight individuals. Can such sanctions be effective in halting Iran's nuclear program? If they are used as part of a comprehensive strategy to create diplomatic leverage, absolutely. Absent this leverage, however, policymakers will eventually be left with the unenviable task of deciding between using military force and tolerating a nuclear Iran.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
1018. PolicyWatch #1277: Better Late than Never: Keeping USAID Funds out of Terrorist Hands
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Foreign aid is an important and effective tool for buttressing allies, alleviating poverty and suffering, supporting key foreign policy objectives, and promoting the image and ideals of the United States abroad. Indeed, as its own website attests, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) "plays a vital role in promoting U.S. national security, foreign policy, and the War on Terrorism." Toward these goals -- and considering that several agency-approved aid recipients have been linked to terrorist groups in recent years -- USAID's proposed new partner-vetting system (PVS) is a welcome and overdue development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
1019. PolicyWatch #1274: The Smarter Way to Target Iran
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A terrorist designation for the Revolutionary Guards would mark the culmination of the administration's recent campaign to highlight the IRGC's dangerous activities. Speaking in Dubai in March 2007, U.S. undersecretary of the treasury Stuart Levey warned, "When corporations do business with IRGC companies, they are doing business with organizations that are providing direct support to terrorism." In a July 2007 speech, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson focused on the Revolutionary Guards, arguing, "The IRGC is so deeply entrenched in Iran's economy and commercial enterprises, it is increasingly likely that if you are doing business with Iran, you are somehow doing business with the IRGC."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
1020. Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki on Iraq, the US and Prospects for Peace
- Author:
- Nermeen Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Manouchehr Mottaki is the Foreign Minister of Iran. In this interview with Nermeen Shaikh, he argues that the US must propose a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq, while maintaining that an immediate withdrawal might "create problems". Foreign Minister Mottaki rules out the possibility of any kind of military confrontation between Iran and the US, saying the latter cannot afford to undertake another conflict in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East