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21. Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan

Author:
Richard Olson and Daniel F. Runde
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
This brief presents a summary of key historical events in Afghanistan since 1989 and outlines a possible worst-case scenario following a U.S. and allied withdrawal from the country. The United States, Afghanistan, and its allies must work together in search for greater Afghan self-reliance, security, and stability in order to avoid a catastrophic scenario. Only then will Afghanistan be able to free itself of foreign presences and embark on its own journey to prosperity and self-reliance.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Governance, Hegemony, Military Affairs, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

22. Moscow, the Palestinians, and the Arab Spring that Never Was

Author:
Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

23. Iranian-Russian Cooperation in Yemen

Author:
Micky Aharonson and Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country’s civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Yemen

24. The Cypriotization of Northern Syria

Author:
Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Turkey is turning northern Syria – Jarabulus and Afrin – into the “Turkish Republic of Northern Syria,” just as it has turned northern Cyprus into a Turkish protectorate through military and economic domination.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Cyprus

25. Erdogan’s Dilemma

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

26. The American Interpretation of Russia’s Conduct: The Case of Syria

Author:
Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The US is failing to appreciate the significance of the leverage points that the Syrian arena provides for Russia. This leverage allows Russia to exact a heavy toll for the measures the US is demanding.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

27. Iran’s Lies – A Tool for Concealing its Policy Contradictions in Syria

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

28. Complications in Russian-Israeli Relations: Israel’s Aerial Freedom of Operation in Syria will be Preserved

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia’s accusations against Israel that it is responsible for the downing of its plane is meant primarily for a domestic audience. Until now, Russia has made sure to behave with restraint in the Syrian arena and to operate based on its strategic interests. One of those interests is the Russian desire to minimize Iranian involvement in Syria.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

29. Warlords, Intervention, and State Consolidation: A Typology of Political Orders in Weak and Failed States

Author:
Romain Malejacq
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security Studies
Institution:
Security Studies
Abstract:
Despite efforts to bolster failed states over the past two decades, many states in the international system still exhibit endemic weakness. External intervention often leads to political instability and in most cases fails to foster state consolidation, instead empowering and creating ties with the ones it aims to weaken. Using the case of Afghanistan, I develop a typology of political orders that explains variation in degrees of state consolidation and provides the basis for more systematic comparative analysis. I demonstrate the resilience of a political logic according to which non-state armed actors (warlords) “shape-shift” and constantly reinvent themselves to adapt to changing political environments. This article, based on extensive field research in Afghanistan, shows why failed states are unlikely to consolidate and exhibit Western-style state building, as a result of intervention or otherwise.
Topic:
Fragile/Failed State, Non State Actors, State Building, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

30. Iran's Presence in Iraq: New Realities?

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
This study explores the new realties related to the Iran’s presence in Iraq. It focuses on Iran’s grand strategy in Iraq, and Iran’s decision-making process concerning that presence. The study discusses different methods that Iran has used to achieve its goals in Iraq. It also discusses in-depth the four Iranian levels of intervention in Iraq, and the consequences on the region. The study includes supporting data, which help to understand the nature of Iranian intervention in Iraq.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Foreign Interference, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East