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12. Rethinking Democracy ep. 4: China's growing presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman
- Author:
- F. Gregory Gause, Jon B. Alterman, and Gonul Tol
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them. In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
13. Towards the end of AKP’s Hegemony in Turkey?
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Turkish opposition’s landslide victory in recent municipal elections indicate that with continued tacit Kurdish collaboration with the opposition and given the deteriorating economy and growing desire for change, the next general snap-elections may be far more challenging for President Erdoğan.
- Topic:
- Elections, Economy, Domestic Politics, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
14. Israel-Palestine: Mapping Islamophobia on Facebook by U.S. Presidential Candidates
- Author:
- John L. Esposito, Archit Mehta, and Mobashra Tazamal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- May 2024 marks over seven months of Israel’s bombardment and siege of the Gaza Strip, home to over two million Palestinians. UN experts and rights organizations have described Israel’s military actions in Gaza as a genocide, and the death toll now stands at over 36,000 Palestinians dead, with over 80,000 injured. Israel’s establishment in 1948 led to the forced expulsion of over 750,000 Palestinians from their homes and villages, an episode that Palestinians refer to as the Nakba (catastrophe), as well as numerous incidents of Israeli settlers engaging in massacres of Palestinians. Since its establishment, there have been a number of wars between Israel and Palestinians and the surrounding Arab countries, and following the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel began its occupation of the West Bank (including East Jerusalem), and the Gaza Strip. This control of Palestinian territories involves “policies of land confiscation, illegal settlement, and dispossession,” rampant discrimination, and settler violence, all of which deprive Palestinians of their basic rights. Israel’s 50+ years of occupation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank have resulted in what Amnesty International describes as “systematic human rights violations against Palestinians living there.” In a 2021 report, Human Rights Watch concluded that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory amounts “to the crimes against humanity of apartheid and persecution.” When it comes to the Gaza Strip, in 2007, Israel imposed a blockade on the territory after the Hamas group came to power. Following the October 2023 Hamas attack, Israel “imposed a total blockade on the Gaza Strip on October 9, cutting its supplies of electricity, food, water, and fuel.” Since Hamas came to power, Israel has launched several military assaults on Gaza in an effort to eradicate Hamas.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Elections, Social Media, Islamophobia, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
15. Turkey’s 2024 Local Elections: Potential Effects on Domestic and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ahmet Erdi Öztürk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- While local elections may not be as crucial as general elections, one can argue that these upcoming local elections hold an exceptionally important position for both Turkey and its region—indeed, even for the international system. It should be remembered that President Erdoğan has control over the state apparatus, which gives him bargaining chips with which to negotiate with the various political actors. While Erdoğan has the power to use state resources to negotiate with various actors who could potentially take votes from İmamoğlu or bring votes to Kurum, İmamoğlu brings to the table a possible alternative to Erdoğan’s hegemony in Turkey’s political arena (a hegemony which has been tarnished in many areas, particularly the economy, in recent years), along with his youth and his potential to appeal to various segments of society. Ekrem İmamoğlu’s re-election will not directly impact Turkey’s foreign policy, but it will influence the stance international power centres adopt towards Turkey. İmamoğlu will once again attract the attention of many Western power centres, particularly in the European Union. Considering Turkey’s significant role as a producer and consumer in the global defence industry, we can expect multinational corporations as well as countries to show an increased interest in İmamoğlu. It is a statement of fact to say that the results of the local elections in Istanbul could be a milestone for Turkish politics. If İmamoğlu emerges victorious in Istanbul on the evening of March 31, which appears likely at the moment, the local elections will mark the beginning of a marathon general election campaign. In this context, we can say that we are on the verge of re-entering the İmamoğlu vs Erdoğan period, which was interrupted during the 2023 elections.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
16. Erdoğan's Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Sweden
17. Turkey: The beginning of the next phase of autocratization or the revival of democracy
- Author:
- Cengiz Günay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- In May 2023, Turkey will hold the most critical elections since the founding of the Republic 100 years ago. For the first time in 20 years in power, public polls point at an electoral defeat of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. What does the crisis and potential demise of President Erdoğan mean for Turkey? Is this the beginning of a next phase of autocratization or the chance for transition to democracy? Autocratization came gradually after recurrent electoral victories of the ruling AKP. The executive takeover (Svolik 2019) has entailed the colonization of state institutions, the control of the judiciary, the mainstreaming of media, the curtailment of democratic rights and liberties and the reorganization of business capital. Authoritarianism reached a new level after the failed coup attempt of 2016 and introduction of a presidential system in 20181. Ever since executive powers are united in the hands of the president. He can rule with executive orders, appoint ministers and bureaucrats and redesign institutions and ministries without the approval of the parliament. Parliament was weakened and checks and balances largely elimitnated. Independent state institutions such as the Supreme Election Committee, the Regulatory Radio and Televison Authority or the Central Bank have lost their autonomy. Without exception, they are all led by loyal supporters who are appointed by the president.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, AKP, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. The New Iraqi Opposition: The anti-establishment movement after the 2021 elections
- Author:
- Marsin Alshamary
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- At the start of Iraq’s longest government formation process in October 2021, one key question on everyone’s mind was whether Iraq might get its first majoritarian government. The Sadrist Movement tried for months, but ultimately Muqtada Al-Sadr conceded defeat by calling on his MPs to resign. The result was another consensus government with all the traditional political parties sharing the spoils, minus the Sadrists. A second key question on everyone’s mind was whether a genuine parliamentary opposition could develop in Iraq given the election of many independent MPs and the rise of reformist parties. This brief outlines the conditions needed for such a parliamentary opposition to emerge, discusses both technical and political elements, and analyses the challenges facing the ‘new Iraqi opposition’, i.e. veteran independent politicians, civil society activists and even former members of established parties. It argues that a sound electoral environment, unification of reformist parties and a higher turnout can contribute to making meaningful opposition a reality, which is needed to confront Iraq’s collusive democracy.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
19. Turkey Earthquake: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
20. Even Chances: Defining Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
- Topic:
- Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East