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161. Recalibration and Surprises: A Primer on the Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Election

Author:
Allen Keiswetter
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This is a capstone paper for a series of MEI scholar articles titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections." Will the 2016 vote for president be a foreign policy election? How will the Middle East figure in the campaign as it gains momentum? The accepted wisdom is that domestic issues, especially economic matters, will be decisive in voters’ minds. A year away from the election, it is unclear whether foreign policy issues will figure in a major way but the portent is there. The turbulent Middle East could easily burst into election politics as it has several times in the past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

162. Turkish Parliamentary Elections: Risks and Predictions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s president and prime minister have not hidden the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) intention to write a new constitution which converts the system of governance from parliamentary to presidential. In some ways, the 7 June 2015 Turkish parliamentary elections, the fourth parliamentary elections the AKP will contest, will decide the future of the country’s constitution and its system of governance. The most difficult factor to predict in this election has been the Kurdish vote, because the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) ran candidates as independents in the last parliamentary elections and received six per cent of the vote share. This time, the party has decided to run under its party banner, which will surely increase their vote share. The only question is how much.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

163. Libya 2014

Author:
Bilal Yıldırım
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Bu makale, 2014 yılı içerisinde Libya’da yaşanan gelişmeleri ele almakta ve bu gelişmeleri Siyasi İstikrarsızlık ve Güvenlik Problemi, Petrol ve Hükümet Kriz(ler)i ve Çatışmalar ve Genel Seçim: (Olmayan) Otoritenin Parçalanışı adlı üç başlık altında analiz etmektedir. Bu amaçla, özellikle bağımsız haber kaynaklarında çıkıp ülke içi ve bölgesel dinamikleri konu edinen haberlerden yararlanılmıştır. Netice itibariyle, yukarıda değinilen üç bağlam içerisinde gerçekleşen olaylar, neden sonuç ilişkisi içerisinde değerlendirilmekte ve Libya siyasetini anlamaya yönelik ülke içi ve yapısal unsurlar tespit edilmektedir. | This article discusses the developments appeared in Libya throughout 2014 and analyses these developments with three sub-titles named as Political Instability and Security Problem, Oil and Government Crisis, Conflicts and General Elections: Distortion of (Non-Exist) Authority. The study, with this aim, benefits from the news which raises the domestic and regional dynamics and especially from independent media sources. As a result, events happened in above mentioned contexts are examined in a causality relation and domestic and structural elements which lead to understand the policy of the Libya are identified.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Political stability, Conflict, and Militias
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

164. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democratic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organized by EuroMesco, the European Institute of the Meditereanan (IMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), wit the support of the Spanish agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a program to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Meditereanan countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation process and regional transformations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

165. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democractic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organised by EuroMeSco, the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), with the support of the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a programme to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Mediterranean countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation processes and regional transformations.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

166. Turkish Local Elections: Background, Results and Implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s local elections were held Sunday, March 30, 2014 under what can be considered turbulent political circumstances. These elections were key for a number of reasons: they were the third ones in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) participated in since its ascent to power in 2002, the large margin by which the AKP won and finally, because a great number of regional and international players considered the elections a test of the AKP and its president’s worthiness and benefit. Presidential elections will also be held in August of this year, and current leader of the AKP and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to face challenges given a severely polarised political atmosphere in the country. This is particularly true given that the presidential position he strives for is seen in Turkey’s political culture as a unifying national position distant from partisan squabbles.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Political System
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

167. Report No.6: A Transforming Arab World: Between Continuity and Change

Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Almost three years after the start of the Arab uprisings, it is time to reflect on what has changed and what has not as a consequence of the recent developments in the Mediterranean. Some important steps forward have been taken, as reflected by the increasing weight of civil society organizations, the birth of independent media or the gilding of free elections. However, it is still too early to draw form conclusions on the outcomes of the transitional processes and remarkable challenges lay ahead for Southern Mediterranean countries. Economy, security, and social and political polarisation are among the most pressing priorities.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Politics, Elections, and Media
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

168. The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring

Author:
Lorenzo Vidino
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements - the most organized movements in the Arab world - became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology - even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form - remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Islam, Self Determination, Political Activism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

169. Libya: A Transition Threatened by the Jamahiriyya Legacy (Libye : une transition à l’épreuve du legs de la Jamahiriyya)

Author:
Luis Martinez
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In post-Qadhafi Libya, the authorities are in search of a new art of governing. Despite the legitimacy accorded them by elections, they remain very weak. Without any means of coercion, they are constantly obliged to negotiate for their survival, threatened by those who were not chosen by voters but who instead draw their legitimacy from their participation in the revolution – the militias. The challenge facing the Libyan authorities is not so much to combat these forces but to harness them. Libya has not undertaken a process of “de-Qadhafication.” But for the militias, in particular the Islamists, the presence of former officials and leaders in the state apparatus is intolerable. Thus, on May 5, 2013 they pressured the parliament into passing a law excluding from politics persons who occupied positions of responsibility under the old regime. If the revolutionary brigades continue to impose their will on the government, the fall of Qadhafi’s regime will have not brought about political change in Libya but rather the continuation of former political practices under a new guise.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Sociology, Governance, Elections, Arab Spring, Political outlook, Protests, and State
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

170. Europe, the Mediterranean and the Arab Spring: Crisis as an Opportunity

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Mediterranean region is going through one of its most important transformations of modern times. The rise of new leaderships, the emergence of democracies and the persistence of violent conflicts represent a major challenge in one of the youngest and mos dynamic regions of the world. Against this backdrop, the Euro-Mediterranean political research community met in Barcelona to hold the EuroMeSCo Annual Conference 2012.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, International Security, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries