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62. Lebanon’s Perennial Limbo: A Paralysed System Teetering on the Brink
- Author:
- Giulia Gozzini
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of a catastrophic and seemingly endless downward spiral that began in 2019, a paralysing political stalemate has once again gripped Lebanon. Close to three months have passed since the Lebanese were called to the polls on 15 May, the first parliamentary elections held since the October 2019 revolution (thawra) and the 2020 Beirut blast. Yet, nothing seems to have changed. While the results did not bring about a significant political breakthrough, they did break the monopoly of traditional parties, with the election of 13 independent candidates associated with the popular protests of 2019.[1] This is a noticeable occurrence given that it was produced by a system which is tailor-made for the political élite to maintain the status quo. That said, the vote can hardly qualify as a victory of the so-called “forces of change”. Likewise, it would be unwise to claim – as many in the media did in the aftermath of the vote – that the results represent a defeat for the Shia Islamist party, Hezbollah.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
63. The 2023 Elections: Legitimization of the New Türkiye
- Author:
- Christos Teazis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Christos Teazis reveals the gradual transformation of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) into a state party by examining the modus operandi of the state founder Republican People's Party (CHP).
- Topic:
- History, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
64. Summary of the 25th Knesset election results in Arab society
- Author:
- Arik Rudnitzky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The current issue of Bayan is being published about one month after the 25th Knesset elections which were held on November 1st, 2022. In his article, Dr. Arik Rudnitzky summarizes the election results in the Arab sector, and their future implications for Arab politics in Israel.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Elections, Domestic Politics, Knesset, Palestinians, and Arabs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
65. Post-Kemalism and the Future of Turkish Governance – Nicholas Danforth
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Disillusionment with Erdoğan and the AKP after 2013 has reshaped the study of Turkish politics and history, leading scholars to focus on new themes and new periods. Comparative approaches, political economy and a newfound interest in the Cold War have offered a more nuanced understanding of Turkish authoritarianism. Post-Kemalism remain more popular in the U.S. and Europe than in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
66. Turkey’s 2023 Election: Which Candidates Can Defeat Erdoğan at the Polls?
- Author:
- İştar Gözaydın and Ahmet Erdi Öztürk
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Turkey will go to the polls at the latest in June 2023 to elect both the President and the parliament. These elections could bring to an end the period in which the AKP has ruled by means of various unofficial coalitions. The 2019 municipal elections also showed that it was possible for the opposition to defeat authoritarian regimes through elections, thereby showing voters how essential it was for them to join forces. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to be playing all his cards to win this election, which should come as no surprise, given that he is both a shrewd politician and an ‘election machine’. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has advantages, but also disadvantages that put him in the weakest position of all the current candidates. This has been confirmed by multiple polls. Ekrem Imamoglu’s judicial conviction on 14 December 2022, and the fact that this verdict paves the way for his ban from politics, has completely changed his candidacy case. Mansur Yavaş’s nationalist background, and the fact that he still uses former MHP cadres in the staff of the municipality, may cause the Kurdish political movement to maintain distance from him if he is a candidate. Turkey’s 2023 election depends on what the οpposition does to anticipate the moves Erdoğan makes to stay in power.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
67. Spring 2022 edition of Contemporary Eurasia
- Author:
- Vahram Ter-Matevosyan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Contemporary Eurasia
- Institution:
- Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
- Abstract:
- CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN SYRIAN REFUGEES IN LEBANON: “NEW COMMUNITY” IN LEBANON’S CONFESSIONAL POLITICAL SYSTEM ............................................................... 5 GRIGOR VARDANYAN RESHUFFLINGS WITHIN SYRIAN SECURITY SYSTEM IN 2019: DETERMING POLITICAL MOTIVES AND OBJECTIVES ...............................20 VERONIKA TOROSYAN UNPACKING THE CONCEPT OF NATIONALISM WITHIN RUSSIAN EURASIANISM ...................................................................................................... 27 GOR HOVHANNISYAN TURKEY’S EXPANSION IN EASTERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF SOMALIA. ............................................................................................................. .44 WORKSHOP ARMENIA-TURKEY: LESSONS AND REALITIES………………………………………………………………………..58 CONFERENCE GULF ARAB COUNTRIES AND THE ARMENIAN COMMUNITIES: CURRENT TRENDS AND ISSUES………………………………………………………………………….…61
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, and Armenians
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, and Gulf Nations
68. The 2021 Iranian Presidential Election A Preliminary Assessment
- Author:
- Albert B. Wolf
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Whoever wins, the result will intimate deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader’s departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, thirteenth in the series, assesses the situation in Iran, where a June election will determine the successor to President Hassan Rouhani. An IRGC-backed candidate such as Majlis speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf or former defense minister Hossein Dehghan could ultimately prevail—but a history of election surprises in the Islamic Republic suggests no outcome is certain. Whoever wins, the result will offer clues about deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
69. The Institutional Structure of “New Turkey”
- Author:
- Selim Koru
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- There is a reference book entitled The Republic of Turkey State Institution Guide (Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Devlet Teşkilat Rehberi), published by the Turkey and Middle East Public Governance Institute (Türkiye ve Orta Doğu Amme İdaresi Enstitüsü). It begins with the highest institutions in the legislature, executive, and judiciary, then moves down to the presidency, parliament, prime ministry, and high councils, breaking them up into page-long summaries, with an institution logo and official title, along with their mandates, budgets, current leaders, and international associations. There are impartial or independent institutions, such as the supreme election council and the central bank; local administrative structures, such as city and municipal governates; oversight institutions; government-owned for-profit businesses; and “professional organizations qualified as government institutions.” Akin to the United States Government Manual, this book is meant to be a compact picture of Turkey’s government. If you are working in the municipality of the city of Adana and someone from the “Presidency of the Turkey Water Institute” asks for an appointment, you might reach for this book to learn about that institution. If you ever wonder when the “Privatization High Council” was founded, page 33 will tell you it was on November 27, 1994, under law “4046/3 md.”
- Topic:
- Government, Domestic Politics, Institutions, and Municipalities
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
70. “The Times They Are A-Changin'”? – Three Turkish Opposition Parties
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- While the main focus of international media and academics is oriented towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), together with their nationalist allies, the Turkish opposition is giving growing signs of deep changes and transformations. Obliged to operate within a “competitive authoritarian” environment, the three biggest parties of the opposition, namely the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi-CHP), the Good Party (İYİ Parti) and the Democracy and Progress Party (Demokrasi ve Atılım Partisi-DEVA) are in a multidimensional process of transformation and adaptation to the emerging needs and expectations of a growing part of the Turkish society. By exploring new ways to circumvent polarization that brings them closer to the vibrant society, and by searching for new interpretations of nationalism that open new perspectives of inclusiveness, these three opposition parties have the potential to emerge not only as significant political alternatives but also as a reflection of societal change.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Political Parties, AKP, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean