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101. The Return of Egypt. Internal Challenges and Regional Game

Author:
Stefano Maria Torelli
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Egypt has reappeared again as a leading actor in the Middle East. After the fall of Mubarak, the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ouster, the country has chosen its new ‘strongman’. Following the elections of al-Sisi, Egypt is back to pursuing a pro-active policy not only internally, but also in the neighbourhood. The restoration of the strategic axis with Saudi Arabia and the struggle against radical Islam are the two pillars of this new political phase. However, there are critical elements, too, from further deterioration of the political and civil liberties indexes, to the emergence of jihadist groups in the Sinai, to the enduring economic and financial difficulties. As a result of these changes, Europe and Italy should calibrate a new policy aimed at safeguarding their interests,especially from the points of view of security, stability and the fight against terrorism, also promoting more inclusive practices by the Cairo government vis-à-vis the opposition (including the Muslim Brotherhood) and developing policies which can help Egypt to respond to future challenges in terms of economic growth, poverty alleviation, demographic pressure and the creation of employment opportunities.
Topic:
Demographics, Poverty, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, Islamism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

102. President Hadi's Resignation: Dangers and Alternatives

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
With President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s resignation, Yemen lost a leader who had the ability to facilitate considerable consensus among diverse political forces involved in fierce conflicts over various issues, including the territorial conflict between north and south; the sectarian conflict between Zaidis and Shafiis; the political conflict between the old guard (represented by deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh) and the new post-revolution regime headed by Hadi; and the armed conflict between al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemeni armed forces. As it stands, it appears that none of these warring forces can single-handedly force their will on the nation. Rather, it is clear they need to somehow work together and attain a degree of regional and international recognition. This also requires that these forces reposition themselves accordingly. This paper addresses the dynamics that drove Yemen to this state of affairs, and discusses probable scenarios for Yemen’s future.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

103. Turkish Parliamentary Elections: Risks and Predictions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s president and prime minister have not hidden the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) intention to write a new constitution which converts the system of governance from parliamentary to presidential. In some ways, the 7 June 2015 Turkish parliamentary elections, the fourth parliamentary elections the AKP will contest, will decide the future of the country’s constitution and its system of governance. The most difficult factor to predict in this election has been the Kurdish vote, because the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) ran candidates as independents in the last parliamentary elections and received six per cent of the vote share. This time, the party has decided to run under its party banner, which will surely increase their vote share. The only question is how much.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

104. Erdogan and Gülen: Political Battle Waged in Court

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
While Erdogan saw the relationship between his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Fethullah Gülen’s movement as a natural reflection of mobilized Islamic conservative forces, the relationship has been a subject of debate and many leaders of the party felt that a clash between the two sides was inevitable. Although the movement’s rhetoric has been centred on distancing itself from politics, it has not hidden its desire to play a political role or be represented within the state apparatus. The Gülen movement was helpful to Erdogan in the past in his campaign against the Kemalist current in the administration and the army, but with the demise of this common threat, differences have emerged between the former allies on the administration of the Turkish state.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

105. Renewed Escalation of Erdogan-Gulen Conflict Increases Internal Polarisation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
A massive wiretapping operation by Gulen affiliates in the government has uncovered alleged corruption by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family, leading to renewed escalation of the crisis between the two sides. These allegations are meant to undermine Erdogan and his party (Justice and Development or AKP) politically and tarnish his image as a clean leader. Erdogan has responded by denying the allegations and labelling them unethical, escalating an ongoing exchange of attacks on moral credibility between the two sides.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fethullah Gülen, Polarization, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

106. Turkish Local Elections: Background, Results and Implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s local elections were held Sunday, March 30, 2014 under what can be considered turbulent political circumstances. These elections were key for a number of reasons: they were the third ones in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) participated in since its ascent to power in 2002, the large margin by which the AKP won and finally, because a great number of regional and international players considered the elections a test of the AKP and its president’s worthiness and benefit. Presidential elections will also be held in August of this year, and current leader of the AKP and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to face challenges given a severely polarised political atmosphere in the country. This is particularly true given that the presidential position he strives for is seen in Turkey’s political culture as a unifying national position distant from partisan squabbles.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Political System
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

107. Faltering Authority: Sisi’s Rule in the Face of Polarisation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Starting July 2013, Egypt began to experience unprecedented polarisation and civil strife. The country has not experienced this level of violence, arbitrary detention and even killing in recent history, and Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has responded by imposing an increasingly tightening security strategy. In the short term, this strategy will strengthen his opponents and increase his isolation – his policy of indiscriminate repression has widened the coalition of those opposed to his authority. The opposition, then, is no longer limited to the Muslim Brotherhood and now includes revolutionary youth groups as well as labourers, students and others. Furthermore, Sisi’s isolation of those who helped him overthrow Morsi has cost him political capital needed to extend his authority and isolate his opponents.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Polarization, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

108. Turkey’s Next President: Contenders and Calculations

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s presidential elections on 10 August 2014 will not only be the country’s first direct election for the presidency, but also the first election with no candidate from the traditional Kemalist party. There are currently three candidates in the running: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Dr. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, jointly nominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and Salahuddin Dimirtash, co-chair of the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

109. Voices from Iraq: A People's History, 2003-2009

Author:
Mark Kukis
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Featuring the testimony of close to seventy Iraqis from all walks of life, Voices from Iraq builds a riveting chronological history unmatched for its insight and revelations. Here is a history of the war in Iraq as told entirely by Iraqis living through the U.S. invasion and occupation. Beginning in 2003, this intimate narrative includes the experiential accounts of civilians, politicians, former dissidents, insurgents, and militiamen. Iraqis offering firsthand stories range from onetime Prime Minister Ayad Allawi to resistance fighters speaking on the condition of anonymity. Divided into five parts, these interviews recount the 2003 invasion; Iraq's gradual slide into chaos from 2004 to 2005; the start of a new order in 2006; the rise of open sectarian violence over the next two years; and the effort since 2008 to reconstruct a society from relative calm. Each section includes interviews grouped into themes, with brief epilogues for the participants. Not since Studs Terkel's The Good War has a book captured so acutely the human consequences of a conflict we are still struggling to understand. Voices from Iraq makes utterly vivid the meaning and legacy of America's campaign in Iraq.
Topic:
War, Reconstruction, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East
Publication Identifier:
9780231527569
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

110. How Legitimate Are The Kurd’s Demands? The Kurdish Question Through The Lens of Turkey’s West

Author:
Dilek Kurban and Yılmaz Ensaroğlu
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Generally speaking, it is fair to say that there was consensus in all meetings that the Kurdish Question is Turkey’s most important challenge and blocks the country’s path in many ways, and that it calls for an urgent solution. But participants raised quite different viewpoints, diverse and at times diametrically opposite approaches on how to name and define the issue, reasons for the problem’s emergence, its origins or the paths to solution. Nevertheless, when specifics of the matter were laid on the table, these opposing views converged, and even reached agreement. This is a sign that the long-lasting policies implemented to create a society of fear have had a certain degree of influence but could not subjugate the society entirely. As a matter of fact, it needs to be noted that at the meetings held in provinces assumed to harbor highly negative opinions on the Kurdish Question, even those participants who define themselves as nationalists (milliyetçi) or secular nationalists (ulusalcı) and are expected to react most harshly and irreconcilably to Kurds’ demands often did not draw their “red lines” too far from those drawn by people with more moderate views. For instance, the majority of those participants stated clearly that Kurds’ demands about human rights and Turkey’s democratization were legitimate and their reaction or concerns were limited to demands regarding ‘terror’, the Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan, PKK) and Abdullah Öcalan.
Topic:
Minorities, Domestic Politics, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East