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721. PolicyWatch #1308: Six Critical Questions for Annapolis and Beyond

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The purpose of the Annapolis summit now is to launch negotiations within the framework of the Roadmap to Middle East peace, the dormant and often maligned plan that provides neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians a setting to establish a "political horizon" for a future Palestinian state. With lowering expectations over the past few weeks, the event itself is -- almost by definition -- doomed to succeed. Only a few days remain before the conference begins, but the following critical questions remain unanswered.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

722. PolicyWatch #1307: Tony Blair Takes on West Bank Aid

Author:
James Lindsay
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Former British prime minister Tony Blair, now the Quartet's special Middle East envoy, has announced that he will soon determine the first set of projects meant to improve economic conditions in the West Bank, specifically mentioning projects around the town of Jericho. Although Blair will no doubt ignore calls from Hamas supporters to bolster their Gaza regime, it remains to be seen which projects in the West Bank he believes are worthy of funding. Regardless of what he decides, there are a few considerations he should take into account in trying to ensure West Bank stability at a time when new peace initiatives are unfolding.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Humanitarian Aid, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

723. PolicyWatch #1306: Palestinian Politics and the Annapolis Meeting

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The huge turnout of an estimated 250,000 Fatah supporters at a November 12 Gaza rally commemorating the third anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death reflects not only the worsening economic conditions since Hamas's June takeover, but also the factional rivalry over who is authorized to negotiate on behalf of the Palestinians at the upcoming Annapolis peace meeting. Since it is unable to provide services to Palestinians in Gaza, Hamas is using the meeting to delegitimize the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), threaten the delicate security situation in the West Bank, and solidify its own domination of Gaza. Meanwhile, Fatah seeks to restore its influence in Gaza, challenge Hamas's claims of authority, and protect its control of the West Bank.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East

724. PolicyWatch #1302: Annapolis and a Dual-Track Peace Process

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Public remarks by top U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian officials this week indicate that the character of the upcoming Middle East peace conference in Annapolis has changed. First, instead of the expected pre-conference declaration of final status -- principles and conceptual tradeoffs on core issues such as Jerusalem, borders, security, and refugees -- Annapolis will only mark the beginning of negotiations on these issues. Second, the November conference will attempt to revive the moribund Quartet Roadmap laid out by the United States, UN, European Union, and Russia in 2003, with particular focus on the plan's first phase: cooperative on-the-ground action by both sides to improve Palestinian security performance and curb Israeli settlement activity, among other issues. Finally, the United States will seek to use Annapolis as a means of galvanizing international support for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Israel

725. PolicyWatch #1290: Losing Traction against Syria

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The September 6 Israeli bombing of a presumed North Korean-supplied nuclear weapons facility in Syria highlights the ongoing policy challenge posed by Damascus. More than three years after President Bush signed the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SAA), Syria continues to support terrorism, destabilize Iraq, meddle in Lebanon, and develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile systems. This week's headlines tell the story: on September 19, yet another anti-Syrian parliamentarian was assassinated in Lebanon; the same day, Jane's Defence Weekly reported that a July 2007 chemical weapons accident in Syria -- involving mustard gas and VX and sarin nerve agents -- killed fifteen Syrian officers and dozens of Iranian engineers.
Topic:
Diplomacy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Lebanon, and Syria

726. PolicyWatch #1289: Rice's Obstacles on the Road to an Israeli-Palestinian Breakthrough

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently visited Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to get personal briefings from each leader regarding their sensitive discussions on peace. Such briefings are designed so that Rice can identify the existing gaps between the parties and fashion U.S. strategy in advance of a planned November meeting in Washington. These gaps will likely determine the scope of her potential shuttle diplomacy during her next visit to the region in the coming weeks. They will also become increasingly clear as Israeli and Palestinian delegations meet and begin drafting a potential declaration of principles (DOP) within ten days time, as a senior Israeli official has reported.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

727. PolicyWatch #1261: Reading Between the Lines of President Bush's July 16 Address

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Bush's July 16 address on the Middle East peace process was a mix of the old and the new, offering neither an unequivocal reaffirmation of past approaches nor a thoroughly novel direction for Arab-Israeli diplomacy in the wake of Hamas's coup in Gaza.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

728. PolicyWatch #1258: U.S. Support for the Iranian Opposition

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Directly reaching the Iranian people can be achieved in two ways: (1) supporting political opposition groups that explicitly advocate regime change, and (2) empowering human rights and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that do not directly engage in political action but support issues such as women and children's rights, labor rights, and religious freedom. Although the latter groups do not pursue political goals, the Iranian regime considers them subversive entities seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

729. 2007 EU Progress Report on Turkey: A Step Forward?

Author:
Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The EU progress reports on candidate countries are important indicators of how EU institutions manage and monitor the accession process. The 2007 European Union progress report on Turkey's EU membership gives a comprehensive account of how EU evaluates the political developments in Turkey. While the report is overall positive and supportive of the reform agenda of the AK Party government, it contains legitimate criticisms as well as debatable assessments on the Cyprus issue. Despite the shortcomings, Turkey should continue its efforts to strengthen democratization and focus on public diplomacy in the EU member countries.
Topic:
Democratization and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

730. The Annapolis Meeting: Too Little Too Late!

Author:
Hassan Barari
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As of writing this piece, no final date has yet been set for the Annapolis meeting, but most likely it will be the last week of November. Amid the premature optimism, the concerned parties need to realize that the meeting is likely to fail. Indeed, rejectionists on both sides are already rubbing their hands gleefully in anticipation of a colossal failure. Therefore, many observers have warned that this summit requires careful planning and, more importantly, a day-to-day strategy, should the meeting fail. They argue that US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has backtracked from her original plans and has changed the agenda of the conference in such a way that it will have a limited purpose. The new thinking is that the Annapolis meeting should be seen as a process and not as an event. This article sheds light on the dynamics that will determine the degree of success.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America