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11. The Heybeliada Talks: Sharing Ideas from and for Cyprus

Author:
Costa Constanti, Takis Hadjidemetriou, Mete Hatay, Praxoula Antoniadou Kyriacou, Sami Özuslu, and Chrysostomos Pericleous
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The publication you are holding in your hands represents a selection of contributions ranging from personal experiences with the Cyprus problem to the suggestions for the international community, which were discussed during the recent rounds. The six important contributions will help you to grasp the intricate nature and complexity of the Cyprus problem.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

12. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

13. Syrian Presidential Elections: Final Blow to Geneva

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
With interest in the Geneva conference’s lacklustre progress fading, and the Syrian regime’s presidential election showcase, any prospects for a political solution based on the 30 June 2012 Geneva declaration have been completely erased. The declaration, which was the basis for Geneva II in January 2014, had called for the formation of a transitional government drawn from both the regime and the opposition. Given this reality, and with the international community’s attention turned to other issues, the possibility of a political solution will be set even further back after the recent 3 June 2014 elections. It is likely that both parties to the conflict – the regime and its allies as well as the opposition and its supporters – will continue to strengthen their military and negotiating positions before any potential political process is launched. In addition, unpublicised contact between Iran and western countries will continue as a “second track” of the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Syrian War, Revolution, Presidential Elections, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

14. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

15. Breaking the Ice: The Role of Civil Society and Media in Turkey-Armenia Relations

Author:
Susae Elanchenny and Narod Maraşlıyan
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Almost three years have passed since the Protocols on Turkey-Armenia relations were signed in October 2009. With their failure to be ratified than a year later, Turkey-Armenia relations have once again seemingly fallen off of the Turkish government, media and public’s agenda. Three years from now on April 24, Armenians will commemorate the 100th anniversary of the mass massacres and deportations of Armenians that took place in the Ottoman Empire between 1915 and 1917. Without a new initiative to restart the rapprochement process, it seems like the next time the Armenia issue will be on Turkey’s agenda in a significant way will be during this commemoration. In short, official relations are “frozen” at present and perhaps for the near future. Yet GPoT Center’s extensive experience in “second-track” diplomacy and conflict resolution projects in various countries gives it a long-term view that lends it hope about future prospects for TurkeyArmenia relations. Particularly in Armenia, GPoT has enacted and continues to enact numerous exchange programs, roundtable discussions and research projects with its Armenian partners that bring together stakeholders from both countries to create and foster dialogue. The “Dialogue-Building between Turkey and Armenia” program was one of such projects. As GPoT Center Project Officers Susae Elanchenny and Narod Maraşlıyan show in this unique report, civil society and media can play an important role in the normalization process even when official relations are “frozen.” By providing the opportunity for Armenian and Turkish journalists, retired officials and civil society activists to have informed, respectful dialogue with one another, these projects can play a key role in “breaking the ice” in the rapprochement process.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Media, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Armenia

16. Charting a Diplomatic Path On the Iran Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Peter Grail
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Even as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program rise, the principal parties engaged in the issue say that they seek a peaceful resolution through diplomacy. Earlier this month, Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili reportedly sent a letter to European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton—who represents the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)—in response to the six-country offer for the renewal of serious talks on Iran’s nuclear program. With the P5+1 insisting that a diplomatic path to resolve the issue remains open and Tehran’s professed interest in dialogue, the question arises: what steps could the two sides take to resolve the impasse? In her letter to Jalili last October calling for renewed negotiations, Ashton said the process would need to begin with confidence-building measures to facilitate longer-term engagement. Given the current trust deficit and the inability of the fractured Iranian political leadership to agree on whether and how to engage on the nuclear issue, an approach that builds upon short-term arrangements makes sense. But it will also be necessary to have some idea of what the end-goal of such engagement might be. In this respect, Ashton said in her letter that the goal of the six countries is “a comprehensive negotiated, long-term solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” reaffirming the group’s commitment to proposals it put forward 2006 and 2008. This brief provides an overview of these proposals and related confidence-building steps and discusses how they address the critical issue of Iran’s enrichment program.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, Dialogue, and P5+1
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

17. Regional Powers in Growing Dialogue: The Brazil-Turkey Strategic Partnership and its Implementation

Author:
Elena Lazarou
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
With a new government in Brasilia, and with Dilma Roussef appearing to distance herself somewhat from some of the most controversial aspects of Lula's foreign policy, speculation abounds regarding how Brazil will follow up on its decisive steps in the Middle East. Iran is a telling, albeit extreme, example. Already, Mrs. Roussef has shown herself to be far more critical of the regime in Teheran, and Antonio Patriota, the new Foreign Minister, has manifested his skepticism with regards to Iranian sincerity, a notable departure from Lula's stance in late 2009 when he publicly asked European leaders to show patience concerning the Iranian case. While we may well be witnessing a change in Brazil's policy towards Iran, this by no means suggests a shift of Brazilian foreign policy interests away from the Middle East. In fact, all signs seem to be suggesting that under Patriota, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry's involvement in and interaction with the region is likely to increase. And while ties with Iran may never reach the level of "warmth" that the Lula-Ahmadinejad handshake suggested, the forecast for Brazil's relations with its real key partner in the region, Turkey, is, if nothing else, promising and likely to endure well beyond the coming year.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Brazil, and South America