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Begin New Search Topic Demographics Political Geography Middle East

1. Demographic Change in the Arab/Persian Gulf: A Case Study by Country Image

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Paul Cormarie
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
It is hard for anyone who has not traveled extensively in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over a period of decades to realize just how much each nation in the region has changed in terms of basic demographics. There has been a massive increase in population in every MENA country since the end of World War II and the colonial period, and the nations in the Arab/Persian Gulf are no exception. The Emeritus Chair in Strategy has prepared a three-part analysis of the MENA’s demographics and detailed how population pressure has impacted the region’s stability. This first part is entitled Demographic Change in the Arab/Persian Gulf: A Case Study by Country. A downloadable copy is attached at the end of this transmittal, and it is available on the CSIS website at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220829_Cordesman_Arab_Demographics.pdf?vbd_oUraxn6ZI7VyBKiThkc1Z6lZ8Ogx There are no precise figures for population growth that are fully reliable, but the broad trends are still clear. Many MENA countries have never had a credible census, and even reliable broad estimates of population trends only became available for many countries in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Work by the UN and World Bank is now reliable enough, however, to show that all MENA countries experienced massive increases in population through 2021 and that the resulting pressures on their economies, governance, and social stability have been—and will be—a key factor affecting their stability.
Topic:
Demographics, Population, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Persian Gulf

2. Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well. The demographers in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs are widely regarded for their first-rate work, and their recently released World Population Prospects report is no exception. Alongside detailed demographic information on every UN member state, the twenty-seventh edition includes projections on how each of their populations will change through the year 2100. These forecasts suggest that demographic realities—and, presumably, power relationships—will shift considerably in many regions, including the Middle East. Forecasting is often an inexact art—think of the challenges facing pollsters, for instance. Yet demography is one discipline where practitioners and consumers can have substantial confidence in forecasts made even decades out. For instance, barring some catastrophe, observers have quite a good idea of what the population of fifty-year-olds will be forty-five years from now; after all, they have already been born.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, Economics, and Population
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

3. Local Governance of the Demographic Transition Process in Turkey: Aging Society and Urban Policies

Author:
Mehmet Şahin
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Demographic transition theory was developed in Europe as a result of the long-term monitoring of birth and death rates. While Turkey has been going through this process with its specific dynamics as a part of the demographic transition process, it is commonly said that as distinct from other countries of the world, it has a young and dynamic population, which is perceived as an advantage over other countries. This demographic imagination, which is desired to be seen as an advantage, functions as some kind of a moral support against unfavorable developments, socioeconomic crises, and unexpected failures.
Topic:
Demographics, Governance, Aging, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4. Urban Drivers of Political Violence

Author:
Antonio Sampaio
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The demographic trend of urbanisation, while not a cause of conflict, exacerbates local tensions and weak governance. It also creates an urgent need to understand the policy challenges that exist in cities such as Mogadishu, Nairobi, Kabul and Karachi. The rate of growth of the urban population in the four countries covered by this study was above the global average for the 2015–20 period – and more than double the average in the cases of Kenya and Somalia. With the exception of Pakistan, these countries also registered higher urban population growth in 2018 than the average for fragile and conflict-affected countries, which was 3.2%. Typically built without formal land rights, lacking basic public services, and featuring low-quality housing in overcrowded conditions, slums are perhaps the most visible characteristic of cities undergoing rapid and unmanaged urbanisation. But they are not the only one. Cities located in or near areas where armed conflict is taking place also tend to be split by several dividing lines – between slums and the rest of the city, between ethnic groups, between licit and illicit (often criminal) economies, and between violent and safe areas. Whereas many of these divisions may be part of broader national problems, their geographical concentration in the limited confines of a city creates distinctly urban drivers of violence, and therefore requires tailored policies in response. These divisions, exacerbated by the rapid urbanisation process, have contributed to a decline in state authority – governmental capacity to enforce rules, monopoly over the use of force, taxation and other state prerogatives – at the municipal level. In cities, therefore, security and governance go hand in hand. The existence of organised armed groups able to replace key state functions makes the challenges in cities affected by armed conflict particularly urgent. This report sheds light on the ways in which cities contribute to the weakening of state authority, and aims to provide a basis for the formulation of better, more tailored policies.
Topic:
Political Violence, Demographics, Urban, Housing, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Somalia, Nairobi, Karachi, Kabul, and Mogadishu

5. How Demographics Erode the Patronage Buying Power of Iraq’s Muhasasa Ta’ifia

Author:
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iraq’s post-2003 political order, characterized by Muhasasa Ta’ifia with political sectarian elites using employment in public services to strengthen clientelism, has become economically unsustainable. The author’s earlier paper for the Arab Reform Initiative examined the impact of the drop in oil prices on the system. This article examines how Iraq’s growing demography erodes the patronage buying power of the sectarian elites, even though spending on clientelism has mushroomed over the years.
Topic:
Demographics, Inequality, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

6. Energy sector diversification: Meeting demographic challenges in the MENA region

Author:
Bina Hussein
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to witness a substantial growth in population over the next three decades. Many of the hydrocarbon-rich nations in this region will need to meet a commensurate increase in job demand. This report focuses on four nations that are predominantly reliant on the oil and gas sector: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Algeria. In all four nations, the majority of the local population is employed in the public sector, which, in the long term, will become economically unsustainable. In order to meet the growing job demand, these nations must both diversify their economies beyond the energy sector and expand their energy sectors beyond hydrocarbons. Doing so will create important employment opportunities in new industries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all have strategies in place that, if followed, could pave the way towards a diversified knowledge-based economy. Algeria, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. Even as it is undergoing a political transition, the transition can create opportunities for the new government to change the country’s course and push economic reforms that are not only aimed at lowering the current unemployment rate but also at making the private sector more enticing. Additionally, all four nations will need to take steps to increase female participation in the workforce by easing current restrictions and making labor laws more favorable towards women. The energy sector plays a large role in the economies of all four nations. This sector has a critical role to play in efforts to diversify the economy and teach skills that will be beneficial in the future or can be applied in other sectors as well. Moreover, all four nations also have sovereign wealth funds that either play, or can play, a key role in diversifying the economy, strengthening existing industries, and helping to create new industries altogether. This report offers the following recommendations on how these four nations can work towards meeting demographic challenges in relation to the economy, specifically the role of the energy sector: Governments can strengthen the private sector through increased foreign investment and by incentivizing entrepreneurship through reforms that open up the economy and make it more lucrative for investors. Governments can create laws and support structures that encourage women to work and increase female participation in the workforce. Opportunities should be provided to teach skills and impart knowledge relevant to the job market that will also be relevant in the future. Lessons should be learned from the experience of the energy sector and leveraged to achieve successes in other areas. For example, the state-owned oil and gas companies have successfully set up a structure that allows them to not only invest in their employees but also take care of the community by offering health care services, education, and more.
Topic:
Demographics, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

7. IPCRI In Between Conference: Representation & Authority in a Contested City - Prof. Oren Barak

Author:
Oren Barak
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents the remarks delivered by Prof. Oren Barak on local representation in multi ethnic societies.
Topic:
Demographics, Ethnicity, Conflict, Representation, Cities, Authority, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. The Middle East Rediscovers the Jews

Author:
Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This article reviews the changed attitudes of Arab states (especially the “core” states of the Middle East) toward the Jews from the turn of the millennium to the present. It places these changes in a broad diplomatic context, which also relates to improved ties between Israel and Middle Eastern states and these states’ strengthening alliance with the US. The article presents the difficulties of Arab regimes and societies in differentiating between Jews and Israel, briefly describes widespread manifestations of anti-Semitism in the second half of the 20th century in Arab culture and media, and reviews the changing geopolitics and awareness in Arab states that have affected the development of interfaith discourse between Jews and Muslims. The article argues that a significant turnaround has occurred over the past two decades in the attitude of Arab regimes toward the Jews by virtue of the geopolitical changes in the Middle East and a desire to project enlightenment and modernity to the West. The resulting increased Jewish-Muslim dialogue could imbue future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations with an added dimension and contribute to their success.
Topic:
Demographics, Religion, Ethnicity, Judaism, and History
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Egypt

9. On Demography and Economic Development in Jerusalem

Author:
David Koren
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recent State Comptroller’s report on Jerusalem shows continuing Jewish emigration from the city. Israel must act swiftly to reverse this trend.
Topic:
Demographics, Territorial Disputes, Economic Development, and Emigration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

10. Attempts at Reforming Egyptian Demographic Policy

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Demographics, Natural Resources, Unemployment, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt