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161. Arab Uprisings: New Opportunities for Political Science

Author:
Eva Bellin, Lindsay Benstead, Nathan J. Brown, Nathan J. Brynen, and Melani Cammett
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The uprisings that swept the Arab world following the fall of Tunisia’s President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 represented a stunning moment in the region’s political history. For political scientists specializing in the region, the events of the last year and a half represented an exhilarating moment of potential change but also an important opportunity to develop new research questions, engage in new comparisons, and exploit new data and information. The Arab uprisings challenged long-held theories dominant in the field, particularly about the resilience of authoritarian regimes, while opening up entirely new areas of legitimate social scientific inquiry. The Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) was created in 2010 in part to build the capacity of Middle East experts to engage and inform policy-makers, the public sphere, and other political scientists about the region. On May 29 to 30, 2012, POMEPS convened a group of leading political scientists who specialize in the Middle East for its third annual conference at George Washington University to discuss the opportunities and challenges that the Arab uprisings pose to the subfield. Participants were asked: “What new and innovative research questions do you think have become particularly urgent, feasible, or relevant? How would those research questions fit into wider debates in the field of political science?” This special POMEPS Briefing collects nearly two dozen of the memos written for the conference. The authors are all academic political scientists and Middle East specialists who speak Arabic and have lived in and studied Arab countries for extended periods. They include scholars at all career levels, from senior faculty at top universities to advanced graduate students still writing their dissertations. The memos reflect on a wide range of debates and paradigms within political science, and taken together lay out an impressive set of marching orders for the subfield. Graduate students looking for dissertation topics and junior faculty looking for articles that might make a big splash take note.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Democracy, Arab Spring, Political Science, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Middle East, Egypt, and United States of America

162. Fixing Afghanistan’s Electoral System: Arguments and Options for Reform

Author:
Andrew Reynolds and John Carey
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Following Afghanistan’s deeply flawed parliamentary election in 2010, calls for electoral reform among both national and international actors have been steadily gaining momentum. One major focus of criticism has been the country’s use of the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system, which many argue must be scrapped or overhauled before the next set of legislative elections in 2015. A new paper for AREU by international election experts Andrew Reynolds and John Carey explores how and why SNTV has been so damaging over the course of the last two rounds of legislative polls in 2005 and 2010. It argues that by choking political parties or other alliances of the oxygen they need to flourish, SNTV has left Afghanistan with a weak legislature, unable to advance coherent national policy programmes to deal with the country’s significant challenges. In addition, it highlights a raft of other problems that SNTV has either caused or exacerbated, exploring in particular the ways in which it has left the electorate struggling to see how their votes translate into meaningful representation. It goes on to examine possible options for reform, including an analysis of a new draft Electoral Law proposed by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission in June 2012.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

163. The Arab Spring and Democratization in China

Author:
Youngjin Kim
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since the fall of Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” has reasserted the universality of democracy. The question then of whether a “Jasmine Revolution” would occur in China has drawn the attention of foreign and domestic observers as well as raised the concern of the Chinese government. Today, even at the official level, the scope of debate on so called “Western-style” democracy is very limited in China regardless of the political standing of any politician whether conservative or progressive. It would be impossible to imagine in this case that there could be any debate over democracy that would lead to sweeping political reforms in the Chinese Communist Party. While on the other end of the political spectrum, a grass roots movement for democracy is also unlikely to develop. Most of the core figures involved in the democratic movement are either in exile overseas, under heavy restrictions at home, or have lost their momentum as time has passed by. Furthermore, possibly the greatest obstacle to any democratization movement in China is the reluctance of the middle-class. While often considered as a powerful driver for democratization in the rest of the world, it would be difficult to expect them to play the same role in China. Simply, the middle-class is the greatest beneficiaries of state-led economic growth and is unlikely to take part in any rapid political transformation. In this regard, the Chinese middle-class is far more conservative than that of any other country. To what extent then would a “Jasmine Revolution” be possible? There are four possible scenarios on the prospect for democratization in China. First, continued high economic growth is destined to bring about democratization. From the perspective of functionalism, improved standards of living as well as expansion of higher education, media, and an increasing consciousness of human rights will make democratization feasible within a certain period. However, such a viewpoint has some limits in that it blindly applies the experiences of the West and a few countries in East Asia to China without any consideration for its distinct history and social conditions. Second, there is the possibility for democratization due to impending social challenges mounting in China. In other words, if a combination of social problems builds up, the Chinese government would be unable to manage them under in its current repressive way. In this situation, the government would have to introduce democratic measures, such as freedom of speech and direct elections, to a substantial extent. Such a prospect though is unlikely to happen in the near future since high economic growth, increases in consumer expenditure, and the elevation of China’s international status will continue for a while, unless a major economic crisis were to occur in China or in neighboring countries. Even if such a crisis were to occur and the Chinese government implements measures for political reform, a soft-landing through democratization would not be guaranteed. Rather, it is highly probable that the unresolved problems would weaken the political control of the government and lead to political disorder. Third, a kind of flexible authoritarianism may be sustained for a long time. China has secured its legitimacy among the population through rapid economic growth, social welfare, administrative efficiency, and an assertive foreign policy. Simultaneously, it has maintained the stability of its system through strict control, systematization, and mass mobilization. Such a flexible authoritarian government is considered a prime alternative to Western-style democracy by the Chinese leadership and pro-government scholars. From such a viewpoint, it would seem unlikely to expect democratization in China for the time being. Lastly, there is a possibility that China would experience political chaos and division, a scenario that covers neither gradual democratization nor flexible authoritarianism. Authoritarian governments unable to actively promote reforms in the political system often fail to meet the social demands which have accumulated as marketization expands. Continued corruption and incompetence in the government leads to public dissatisfaction and might bring about the collapse of the system as in Eastern Europe. In Eastern Europe, countries had implemented ‘shock therapy’ solutions to fix the problems of the socialist system. However, such rapid changes, in some cases, caused severe chaos rather than bring about a smooth transition to democracy. This hard landing scenario cannot be excluded in regarding the future of democratization in China. From a realistic perspective, even though China cannot avert the flow of democratization in the end, top-down democratization or limited democratic reform led by the Chinese Communist Party is more likely as Chinese civil society has yet to fully mature. Nevertheless, as political reforms would weaken the Chinese Communist Party and increase social instability, top-down democratization is likely to be restricted. And this limited reform might even fail to solve social problems ahead. In this case where there is no alternative social force for the Communist Party and its leadership, the direction for the development of Chinese politics will be unpredictable and could bring about unexpected results. China will therefore go through a difficult transition period due to intricate conflicts among domestic political forces.■
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, and Asia

164. Deconstructing “Democracy” in Afghanistan

Author:
Anna Larson
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Despite widespread concerns about fraud, foreign interference and ineffectiveness, there remains a clear appetite among many Afghans for a system of democratic representation. However, this must be centred firmly around their own priorities if it is to take lasting root. Building on two years of research in six contrasting provinces, this report explores Afghan perspectives on democracy and their possible implications for the future. The research brought together the opinions of men and women from diverse social backgrounds, living on both sides of the rural/urban divide and in areas with varying security levels. Across this array of different hopes, expectations and concerns this revealed, three key themes emerged. • The issue of Afghan ownership against foreign imposition was a hot topic for many respondents. While many people saw “democracy” as an unwelcome imposition of Western culture and values, there was generally strong support for the idea of selecting representatives via elections. Others also spoke of the need to fix Afghan democracy within an “Islamic framework,” though this was rarely defined. • Democracy and democratic participation were also viewed as a distant second priority to ensuring security and stability. Immediate concerns over the threat of violence that political engagement often entails were framed against a more general call for a “politics of consensus” and a deep suspicion of political parties. • There were also sharp contrasts in people’s perspectives on the nature of equality and representation, specifically regarding who should be represented, and how. However, there was an almost unanimous call for greater equality of access to decision-making, service provision and resources, and in this respect many saw Afghanistan’s current “democracy” as little more than a front for the powerful to accumulate wealth and extend their reach.
Topic:
Imperialism, Democracy, Inequality, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

165. Initial Impact of the Democratic Protests in the Arab World for the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Boryana Aleksandrova
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
This report explores the correlation between the democratic protests in the Arab world and the Middle East negotiation process. In this sense, the content concentrates primarily on the development of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation track as the central line of the IsraeliArab relations. Impressive in its domestic political nature and decisive in its immediate ruling consequences, has the dissent in Northern Africa and beyond produced any effect on the already long-lasting Israeli-Palestinian antagonism and its regulation? Can we expect a change in the pat situation, which had been formed at the end of 2010 after the fall of the Tunisian and the Egyptian regimes and the revolts following in the neighbour countries? Where and how are the crossing points between the internal and external negotiation context in the respective regional environment to be defined? Taking into account the specific regional, international/global and local dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian contention, the answer to the questions above will be pursued by examining the new geopolitical map of the Middle East, the behaviour of the most influential third party for this particular conflict – the government of the United States of America, as well as the unfolding of the local Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics before and after the events in the region.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

166. Case Study Report: Does Media Policy Promote Media Freedom and Independence? The Case of Turkey

Author:
Ceren Sözeri and Dilek Kurban
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Media policy in Turkey has shaped the media-state relationship since the establishment of the first newspaper in the late Ottoman period. While regulations were often employed as an effective disciplinary tool against the press in processes of state formation and modernization, opponent journalists have constantly been suppressed by state and non-state actors who claimed to act in the name of ‘state interests’. The coup d’état in 1980 and the concomitant economic liberalisation changed the ownership structure of the media sector with the entry of new investors. Following the abolishment of state monopoly on broadcasting in the 1990s, big conglomerates expanding through vertical and horizontal mergers have dominated all fields of the media. The high concentrated market structure in the media was made possible due to the inadequacy of legal barriers to crossmergers, as well as the lack of measures that would prevent media conglomerates from participating in public tenders in other sectors of the economy. The shortcomings of the regulatory framework to promote press freedom and diversity in the media has encouraged big corporations to regard themselves as legitimate political actors that can bargain with the government. Media ownership was restructured following the economic crisis in 2001. Big media groups, which had investments in the financial and banking sectors, were particularly affected by the crisis; some being completely wiped out of the market, while others were seized by the state. Shortly after the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi- AK Parti) came to power in 2002, the mainstream media was reconfigured ideologically as either ‘opponent’ or ‘proponent’ to the government. Notwithstanding the limited positive effects of the EU accession process on media freedom, there are dozens of ECtHR judgments regarding freedom of expression and freedom of the press waiting to be executed by the Turkish state. Journalists who are powerless vis-à-vis the owners and political power are particularly affected by the political polarisation in the media. The structural obstacles to unionization and the lack of solidarity in the profession lead to labour exploitation, low quality content and violations of media ethics. The lack of a strong pro-democracy social movement; the ideological conservatism of the judiciary; the institutional weakness of the parliament; and the lack of democracy within political parties render the government – and future governments – too powerful vis-à-vis the society and the media. On a positive note, however, there is a growing awareness on the need for social monitoring of the media. In the absence of a widely accepted and established selfregulatory framework, various non-governmental organizations and activist groups started to watch the media in order to expand the culture of diversity and to reduce discrimination, racism and hate speech. MEDIADEM is a European research project which seeks to understand and explain the factors that promote or conversely prevent the development of policies supporting free and independent media.
Topic:
Democracy, Media, Freedom of Expression, and Journalism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and European Union

167. Undermining Representative Governance: Afghanistan’s 2010 Parliamentary Election and its Alienating Impact

Author:
Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Instead of bringing citizen and state closer together, the 2010 parliamentary election increased the distance between many Afghans and their government. "Undermining Representative Governance" details this finding, showing that a majority of research respondents are being alienated by a process that increasingly appears like a rubber stamp on the control of established powerholders. This is because the pervasiveness of ambiguity and instability throughout the election process made it seem more like a long and sometimes violently negotiated political process, rather than an exercise to select genuine representatives. This was exacerbated by fraud and the wrangling over the release of results, establishment of a special court, and inauguration of the new parliament. Overall, this has compounded an existing distrust of national institutions. The report draws on in-depth interviews in Kabul, Balkh and Paktya Provinces and includes various accounts of election drama, which demonstrate different and sometimes surprising ways that Afghan elections relate to local politics. It concludes that sustained and vigorous reform driven by both the Afghan government and international actors is now necessary if the election system is to broadly serve the Afghan people. However, genuine change seems very unlikely because the instability of the current system instead means that it serves the interests of the powerful.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Protests, Rigged Elections, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

168. Armed Forces and Democracy

Author:
Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
After the Cold-War, there have been radical changes in the international system and the international structure has, to a certain extent, come to be relative. However, division of power in the international community and non-centralized legal order still dominate their roles of being the most characteristic features of international relations. Under such an atmosphere, “security” (however much its content has changed) is still the “value” that should be primarily protected by individuals, societies and states and the lack of which is the source of concern. Therefore, communities of today’s world also accept the critical function of the armed forces. Furthermore, it has been much clearer in the post Cold War era that the security of an individual and the society is as important as that of the state’s security. In this era, it has also come to the fore that this security of the individual and the society could not be protected without the maintenance of the rule of law, human rights, freedoms and democracy. Therefore, the security provided by the armed forces does not suffice. Then security provided by the armed forces should be backed by democratic values, human rights freedoms and the rule of law. However, the history has showed that the armed forces, in performing its mission of protection, has from time to time easily violated democratic values, human rights, freedoms and the principle of rule of law. In this sense, for the protection of the democratic values and thus for the maintenance of individual and social security, it seems compulsory for the military forces to adhere to the civil authority within the democratic regime and to be controlled by the civil authority alike. In other words, civil-military relations should be conducted on a democratic ground. The problem in civil-military relations is not particular to Turkey or to the countries whose democracy has not yet developed. It is a general problem that manifests itself in different versions in the liberal democracies of the West. The problem in civil-military relations has been much more apparent, especially in America and England with regards to the Iraq and Afghanistan interventions. It would be of use to mention how the theory of political science refers to the importance and the complexity of this problem. According to Peter D. Feaver,1 one of the pioneering names in this scope, the armed forces totally differs from the other state institutions, highlighting where the problem starts. The armed forces is different, as it can be understood from its name of being “armed.” Its big potential of power cannot be compared to any other institution or even to the civil democratic government. Hence, the civil government’s relations with the armed forces cannot be similar to its relations with any other public institutions, such as its relations with any directorate general. The final word in democratic regimes always belongs to the one who comes to power through elections. However, the armed forces has its own hierarchy, disciplinary rules, rules of promotion and assignment and the discretionary power in this scope. The problem is related to the boundaries of this autonomous field.
Topic:
Development, Armed Forces, Democracy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

169. The Political Economy of the Media in Turkey: A Sectoral Analysis

Author:
Ceren Sözeri and Zeynep Güney
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
When we say “media”, we think of a wide range of activities including news, commercials, films, music, discussion programmes, contests, arts and sports. When we consider that all these activities are associated with the cultural and intellectual world of a society, the importance of the media sector for modern societies becomes more highlighted. Since the media sector carries a unique importance compared to other sectors, the issue of by whom and how these activities are carried out also becomes important. This is because the possibility of private or public power centres regarding the media as a tool to manipulate their own interests is not something that can be ignored. On the contrary, since it is prone to be abused exactly for this purpose in modern societies, the media has always been a sector that requires public regulation. Just like the energy, water and communications sectors. As the modern life, getting more and more complex every day, increases the demand for communication, the communication technologies also develop. And the development of communication technologies changes the modern man and his knowledge and perception on the society in which he is living and the world. It can be said that the process we call “globalization” is exactly this, and virtually all the changes indicating this process are the work of communication technologies and the media. While the physical existence of the world is becoming smaller in the eyes of the modern man thanks to the opportunities provided by communication technologies and the media, the modern man starts to attribute more importance to his own life, his own choices, values and thoughts. Just as the awareness that the mankind has long been mistreating the world caused an increase in environmental actions, the importance that individuals, as consumers and political subjects, have started to attribute to their own demands today causes a new and democratic production approach called “flexible production”, and raises the notion of a “participatory” democracy. In today’s world, the importance of the media, which we are trying to underline, stems in particular from its power to shape the perceptions, thoughts and values of people. Similar to how media is the first to come to mind as a propaganda tool in events of conflicts and wars, media is also the first to come to mind in the shaping of economic and political expectations. Therefore, the idea of controlling the media and thereby securing an influence on the expectations, thoughts and perceptions of the whole society makes the media indispensable for some power holders, and the media sector becomes the focus and domain of the quests for “power” in the society. On the other hand, media encourages people to get informed about themselves and their societies, and therefore has a key importance in the formation of a more democratic society. The learning process of the society requires time, and debates carried out through the media speed up this learning process. Programmes on various subjects speed up the information uptake of the society and help shaping and spreading individual and social thoughts and views. Therefore, the media is an indispensible instrument in the democratization processes of societies. This study was prepared by Ceren Sözeri and Zeynep Güney, and focuses on the structural characteristics of the media sector in Turkey. The authors address the sector-related regulations and the developments occurring during the course of time in these regulations, and then provide an assessment of the place of the media sector in Turkey’s economy. In this framework, the authors analyze not only the competitive structure created in the sector by the companies and company groups operating in it, but also the structures of the subsectors forming the media sector. Sözeri and Güney also address the labour relations and working conditions, a subject that rarely finds its way into this type of studies. This dimension, also addressed with regard to subsectors, has in general made significant contributions that deepen our thoughts on the problems seen in the media. By supporting this study by Sözeri and Güney, TESEV Democratization Program adds to the light it has already shed on the other problem areas of the society. And it is very clear that these efforts mean making important contributions to the development of the mentalities in Turkey.
Topic:
Political Economy, Democracy, Media, and Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

170. The Wolesi Jirga in Flux, 2010: Elections and Instability I

Author:
Anna Larson
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This paper critically analyses the effects of elections in the current context of 2010, with a specific focus on the Wolesi Jirga, its members and new candidates. It is part of a series on elections in 2009-10. It draws on extensive research compiling over 200 interviews conducted with MPs, their constituents and new candidates, both at the centre in Kabul and in two case study provinces of Balkh and Paktia. It also exists as a parallel study to another discussion paper in the series, written on elections and instability with a focus on constituent perspectives at the local level.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Local, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East