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21. Targeting Financial Entities outside Iran to Counter Tehran’s Economic Strategy

Author:
Yair Albeck
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Tehran is stringing out the nuclear negotiations endlessly with the expectation that President Joe Biden will not admit that the talks have failed. After such an admission, the public would likely pressure the administration to stop offering Iran stealth economic relief through the lax enforcement of sanctions. Rigorous enforcement would, the White House fears, remove Iranian oil from the market and contribute to the global energy crisis that Russia’s war against Ukraine sparked. Meanwhile, Iran is benefitting doubly—strategically and economically—from the war, selling missiles and drones to Russia and oil to China. Given this advantageous situation, Tehran wants negotiations to continue. Can the United States escape from this conundrum? In fact, it can impose severe economic costs on Tehran without removing oil from the market.
Topic:
Corruption, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Democracy, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

22. Lebanon Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Lebanon’s deep political and economic crisis continues unabated. There has been no resolution to the financial crisis that has plagued the country since 2019 while the port area of Beirut remains a dangerous area two years after the explosion. The COVID-19 pandemic has further compounded the situation. In the onslaught of public health and financial disasters, Lebanon has become a country of extremes. Arab Barometer captured many record highs and lows in views of citizens compared with any previous survey in any foreign country. Among others, all-time lows are seen in satisfaction with the government, interpersonal trust, and economic outlook, while perceptions of government corruption is at an all-time high.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

23. Iraq Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
The challenges Iraq has faced between 2021 and 2022 are numerous but not new: political impasses, violent crackdowns on protests, foreign interference, the economic and social fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, sand and dust storms, electricity shortages, and protracted internal displacement are among the few. While once seen as a way of ushering in solutions to these challenges, the October 2021 parliamentary elections instead left in their wake a wave of political turbulence that surged in the summer of 2022. In June, MPs of the Sadrist Movement, led by populist Shiia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, resigned after failing to build a coalition, despite having won the plurality of seats. The political stalemate came to a head in July. Iraqi protesters stormed and occupied parliament ahead of a session where the Coordination Framework, an Iran-backed alliance of Shiite parties that rival the Sadrist movement, was set to gather to elect a new prime minister. Violent protests spilled into August and onto the streets of Baghdad and Southern Iraq, leaving 30 dead and scores more injured. Findings from Arab Barometer’s seventh wave in Iraq predate but to an extent foreshadow the frustration that peaked in the summer of 2022. Citizens perceive corruption to be as high as their trust in political institutions is low. With a plurality seeing the parliamentary elections as significantly flawed, Iraqis bemoan the lack of governmental responsiveness to their grievances. Yet, there is no consensus about what the biggest domestic challenges are, let alone what solutions to them are, or what avenues provide the best course of redress. If there is one theme that runs through citizens’ evaluations of economic and political conditions in Iraq, it is uncertainty. Iraqis appear to be in agreement that there is no silver bullet solution, but whatever reform the system demands, Iraqis increasingly want it immediately rather than incrementally. Affected populations are diverse, but no one is unscathed.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

24. Jordan Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Compared with other countries in the region, Jordan has long been seen as an island of stability. Analysts have long predicted that unrest must be coming due to myriad challenges over the last three decades. Yet, such events have failed to come to pass. The regime continues on relatively unchanged even as regional events such as the Arab Uprisings of 2011 rocked those elsewhere in the region. Under the surface, however, changes in public opinion suggest potential bumps in the road ahead. Views of the government and key political actors have plummeted over the past decade. For example, trust in the government is now 41 points lower than at the time of the Arab Uprisings. Confidence in other political institutions, such as parliament, have also declined. Today, the only major institutions with high levels of trust is the armed forces. The main driver of the loss of confidence in the government is its inability to solve Jordan’s economic challenges. When asked about the most critical problem facing the country, nearly two-thirds of Jordanians say the economy. Elsewhere in the region, fewer than half say this is the biggest challenge. Commensurately, ratings of the economy have declined dramatically over the last fifteen years, with Jordanians being 40 points less likely to say it is good today than in 2006. Critically, hope for the future is also in decline. Only a quarter of Jordanians expect the economy to improve in the coming years, which is down nearly 20 points since 2012.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

25. Possible Polarization: The repercussions of the Beirut port blast investigation on the Lebanese political scene

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The investigations into the Beirut port blast, which took place in August 2020, witnessed significant developments recently. The judicial investigator, Judge Tariq Bitar, issued a series of rulings starting on July 2, stipulating the investigation of former ministers, current representatives as well as security and military leaders, with a demand to lift the immunity of some for the purpose of conducting investigations with them.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Leadership, Polarization, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Beirut

26. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Lebanon (Oil and Gas)

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Assessed for the first time, Lebanon’s governance of its nascent oil and gas sector scored 53 out of 100 points in the 2021 Resource Governance Index. While Lebanon is not yet an oil and gas producer, its government has begun to establish an institutional framework to govern the sector before production begins. Lebanon received a “satisfactory” score of 73 points in terms of its ability to realize value from its sector according to the RGI, with the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) displaying signs of best practice in terms of extractive sector transparency. Nonetheless, “weak” revenue management and a “poor” enabling environment are causes for concern for the future of Lebanon’s resource governance.
Topic:
Corruption, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

27. Reform within the System: Governance in Iraq and Lebanon

Author:
Amal Bourhrous, Shivan Fazil, Meray Maddah, and Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The 2019 protests in Iraq and Lebanon revealed a widespread dissatisfaction with political systems based on sectarian and ethnosectarian power-sharing, which many saw as being responsible for a host of governance failures. This has given rise to demands for a wholesale change of the political systems in both countries. However, the dismantlement of identity-based power-sharing systems is a remote prospect—they are deeply entrenched, and change would depend on action from the very political elites that benefit from them. Instead, this SIPRI Policy Paper explores what can be done in the short term to address some of the key challenges confronting Iraq and Lebanon. In contexts where the political elites’ grip on the political system remains tight, every possible opportunity for reform must be grasped.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Reform, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

28. The Era of Dis-and-Misinformation Volume XXII, Number 1

Author:
Nicole Kalczynski, Rebecca Blaser, Nicholas J. Cull, Peter J. Phillips, Gabriela Pohl, Michael Christensen, Leonie Holthaus, Bohdan Harasymiw, Feeza Vasudeva, Nicholas Barkdull, Arthur D. Soto-Vásquez, Nadra Hashim, and Vincent Chenzi
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
As the world continues to recover from the devastating fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, navigating the harms of misinformation and disinformation remain at the forefront of global conversations on paving the path forward. Preventing the dissemination of false information—particularly during a time where the ways in which we engage with information environments have fundamentally changed—is increasingly complex. Social media platforms have enabled users to not only engage with media but become distributors of it themselves. When coupled with bad actors, limited repercussions, and poor content regulation, social networks are easily weaponized. At all scales of governance misinformation and disinformation campaigns pose a multidimensional threat. In Myanmar and China, disinformation campaigns were leveraged to target minority groups, while in Central and Eastern Europe, they serve as the cornerstone of destabilizing operations between adversarial states. In yet another facet, countries like Turkey, China, Russia, and Iran have embraced digital authoritarianism and restrict policies on internet accessibility under the pretext of stemming the spread of “fake news.” This year’s issue seeks to shed light on the nature of these evolving threats from a variety of innovative and understudied perspectives. This issue explores the causes and effects of the spread of misinformation and disinformation throughout different parts of the world and will be timely for years to come given the ever-increasing role and breadth of new technologies infiltrating people’s everyday lives.
Topic:
Corruption, Human Rights, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Media, Internet, Social Media, Surveillance, COVID-19, Disinformation, Misinformation, and Fake News
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Sudan, Eurasia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, India, Eastern Europe, Asia, Myanmar, Central Europe, and United States of America

29. The Collapse of Lebanon: Scenarios for the Future

Author:
Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.
Topic:
Corruption, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

30. The Eye of the Storm

Author:
George G. Namur
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Lebanon is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis in its modern history. Starting 17 October 2019, the people of Lebanon have been protesting in the streets in a broad-based uprising. This paper highlights key post–civil war realities and practices that led to the country teetering and proposes a solution package to what ails the country and threatens its future.
Topic:
Corruption, Financial Crisis, Governance, Social Movement, Revolution, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon