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302. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The key to enabling total US troop withdrawal from Iraq within 400 days is achieving a political accord with Sunni leaders at all levels and with Iraq's neighbors - especially Syria and Iran. The proximal aim would be to immediately lower the level of conflict inside Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency, inside and outside the country. This would allow the United States to shift resources to the training mission and to adopt other de-escalatory measures - most importantly: a withdrawal time line. The strategic price of this diplomatic initiative would be a return to self-governance in Sunni areas, a guaranteed level of representation for these areas in the national assembly, an end to broad-brush measures of de-Baathification, an amnesty for most indigenous insurgents and for most former Baathists, and a de-escalation of the US confrontation with Syria and Iran regarding a range of issues. In conjunction with these diplomatic initiatives, the United States would announce a tentative time line for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq -- associated with training milestones. Also: US forces would end major offensive sweeps inside the country, adopt a defensive posture, and shift the emphasis of their activity to training Iraqi security forces. Finally: the Iraqi government would re-activate portions of the old army -- partly as a confidence-building measure, but also in order to (i) rob insurgent organizations of their recruiting base, (ii) augment the power of the new Iraqi security forces, and (iii) produce a better ethnic balance in the new forces (which are currently dominated by Kurds and Shiites). As new forces increase in capacity, US forces would be removed, further reducing a stimulus of insurgent action. Four hundred days - 57 weeks - is sufficient time to complete several Iraqi training cycles, including field exercises for many units at the battalion and brigade levels. Some division level training also can occur. Given sufficient resources (24,000 training personnel), 100,000 Iraqi security personnel can receive remedial training and another 80,000 new personnel can be trained and exercised during this period. Together with the full provision of all appropriate equipment, this development effort can yield Iraqi security forces that are several times more capable than those it controls in mid-2005. After thirteen months, the only foreign military assets remaining in Iraq would be a small monitoring and training mission with a security detail: less than 10,000 foreign civilian and military personnel in all. US troops should constitute no more than one-third of the military component -- that is, approximately 2,000 troops. This mission should be conducted under a three-year UN mandate and joint NATO-international command. In addition, the United States might maintain a 25,000-person rapid reaction task force in the region, but outside either Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
303. SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Pocket-size Summary Edition)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The SIPRI Yearbook has been published since 1969. It brings together objective data and state-of-the-art analysis, offered by SIPRI's own staff and other experts, on all major aspects of arms control, peace and security. The 2004 edition takes as its connecting theme the impact of the Iraq crisis in many different dimensions of international security, but it also highlights important trends arising elsewhere, in both geographical and functional areas. The Yearbook is also published in Arabic, Chinese, Russian and Ukrainian editions. This condensed version is available on the Internet in English, French, German, Spanish and Swedish at http://editors.sipri.org/recpubs.html.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
304. SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Pocket-size Summary Edition)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- There were 19 major armed conflicts in 18 locations in 2003. The number of major armed conflicts and the number of conflict locations were slightly lower in 2003 than in 2002, when there were 20 major armed conflicts in 19 locations. Four of the 19 conflicts in 2003 were in Africa and eight in Asia. In the 14-year post-cold war period, there were 59 different major armed conflicts in 48 different locations. The number of major armed conflicts in 2003 was the lowest for the entire period except for 1997, when there were 18 major armed conflicts. Two interstate conflicts were active in 2003: the conflict between Iraq and the multinational coalition; and the conflict between India and Pakistan. The majority of the major armed conflicts today are intra- state. The persistence of intra-state wars, and their resistance to quick solutions, was reflected in 2003 by the continuation of the Colombian and Israeli–Palestinian conflicts. The potential for sudden and rapid escalation of intensity was evident in conflicts such as Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, Liberia and Sudan (Darfur). The current international focus on the threat of terrorism is affecting the strategies, intensity and course of intra-state conflicts such as those in Indonesia and the Philippines. Outside actors cannot enforce a quick peace, as demonstrated in Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire, Iraq and Sri Lanka. The year demonstrated that intra-state conflicts can be brought to an end only through sustained and comprehensive external engagement. As illustrated by the peace agreements in 2003 in Liberia and Sudan, external assistance, mediation and support are vital to help bring warring parties to a negotiated end to conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Liberia, and Burundi
305. CERI: Sudan. From one conflict to the next
- Author:
- Roland Marchal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- The peace agreements that were signed in May 2004 may imply the end of the war in South Sudan. In order to assess the likelihood of success, one has to discuss the changes after the Islamists were brought to power in 1989 by a military coup. Of special interest are the impacts of their internal divisions, the emergence of oil money as significant revenues for the State and the consequences of 9/11 in the Middle East. Moreover, difficulties to implement the agreements in South Sudan should not be underplayed. The underdevelopment of this region, the existence of militias still supported by Khartoum and the history of the civil war among Southern Sudanese could give room to bitter divisions and proxy wars involving Khartoum's government. The current crisis in Darfur reflects the weaknesses of the peace process despite a strong international involvement. Structural issues such as citizenship have not been addressed and this very crisis shows how little the regime intends to reform itself.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and South Sudan
306. The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership: Regional and Transatlantic Challenges
- Author:
- Roberto Aliboni
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) held their annual meeting in Naples on December 2-3, 2003. The Naples conference was the sixth in the series of such meetings since the founding conference of the partnership, which took place in Barcelona in November 1995. With an annual budget of €1 billion, the EMP is a process of “multi-bilateral” cooperation in the political and security; economic and financial; and social and cultural areas. It involves the European Union (EU), and Cyprus, Israel, Malta, Turkey, as well as seven Mediterranean Arab countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia) and the Palestinian National Authority. In Naples, the Ministers delivered only general declarations regarding contentious issues such as the situation in Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian road map, and international terrorism. Predictable and incremental as it was, progress was nevertheless achieved on three main “baskets” of the partnership agenda.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Cyprus
307. A Possible Path to Change in US-Iran Relations
- Author:
- Mark Edmond Clark
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia International Affairs Online
- Abstract:
- In 1999, I visited Belgrade one month before the start of Operation ALLIED FORCE as a guest of the Yugoslav Ministry of Foreign Affairs to hear the perspectives of key officials on the possibility of a conflict between Yugoslavia and NATO. I heard a singular perspective that NATO would not use force and threats to do so were used only to get the regime of Slobodan Milosevic to respond to diplomatic efforts by the US and EU. There was simply a refusal to recognize that the threat of attack from NATO was real.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Yugoslavia
308. CIAO Iraq Special Section: The Year in Review
- Author:
- Sean Costigan, Adam Mausner, and Siheun Song
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia International Affairs Online
- Abstract:
- One year into the occupation of Iraq the United States and its Coalition partners remain in discussions over the country's fate. The deliberations have generally focused on the involvement of the United Nations, the schedule for handing over sovereignty to a democratic Iraqi government, and ultimately what the Iraqi government should resemble. The terms of the debate have regularly been sidelined by unforeseen events, including the recent rebellion in Fallujah, Shiite opposition in the south, grandstanding by local politicians, demagoguery, defection of Iraqi police and security forces and the wavering of Coalition partners, to name but a few. While progress is clearly being made in some areas, there are numerous signs that Iraq may not be ready for the June 30 transition of power. The top U.S. administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, has suggested that by June 30 Iraqi security forces simply will not be up to the task of defending against insurgents. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld is more optimistic and remains committed to the June 30 deadline.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations
309. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite its defeat in a Likud Party referendum on 2 May, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's proposal for a unilateral withdrawal from settlements and military positions in the Gaza Strip remains very much on the Israeli national agenda. For Sharon a withdrawal would help shorten Israel's security lines, block any alternate diplomatic initiatives being forced on Israel and win important policy changes in US positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed despite Palestinian suspicions about the proposal, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza could, if executed in an orderly and coordinated fashion, ultimately help reinvigorate a moribund peace process. There remain, however, a number of questions surrounding the plan, not least of which is whom Israel would coordinate any pull-out with, and who or what would fill any political and security vacuum left by Israel's withdrawal. Solving both sets of problems is likely to require some form of international intervention. If this occurs Australia would probably find itself on a short list of countries who would both be capable of contributing to such a sensitive and complex mission and whose membership of such a force would be acceptable to Israel, the Palestinians and the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific
310. Special Policy Forum Report: Combating Terror Financing In America
- Author:
- Dennis Lormel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While individual terrorist attacks can be carried out at a relatively low cost, the need to recruit operatives and provide them with safe houses, training, and support requires significant funding. The United States has proven to be a good venue for fundraising by terrorist groups, particularly Hamas and Hizballah. Although such activities could indicate the presence of operational sleeper cells, these organizations are unlikely to risk losing their funding sources by carrying out an attack on U.S. soil, at least under the current circumstances. After all, the revenue sources of certain terrorist organizations have become increasingly restricted following attacks in other parts of the world (e.g., Turkey, Saudi Arabia), largely due to policy changes, more proactive law enforcement, and fear of prosecution on the part of front organizations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia