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22. Afghanistan's Uncertain Future: Fragmented Realities and Geopolitical Fault Lines
- Author:
- Olli Ruohomäki and Olli Ruohomäki
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite the complexity Afghanistan entails, it is possible to outline the main contours of the fragmented reality and geopolitical fault lines that inform the situation on the ground. It is with this in mind that this Briefing Paper examines the cur- rent state of affairs in Afghanistan with a focus on the highly contentious politics, precarious security situation and the role of the difficult neighbourhood. The paper concludes with reflections regarding the prospects for peace, which do not appear promising.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Taliban, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
23. How to Secure Mosul Lessons from 2008—2014
- Author:
- Michael Knights and Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- IN EARLY 2017, Iraqi security forces (ISF) are likely to liberate Mosul from Islamic State control. But given the dramatic comebacks staged by the Islamic State and its predecessors in the city in 2004, 2007, and 2014, one can justifiably ask what will stop IS or a similar movement from lying low, regenerating, and wiping away the costly gains of the current war. This paper aims to fill an important gap in the literature on Mosul, the capital of Ninawa province, by looking closely at the underexplored issue of security arrangements for the city after its liberation, in particular how security forces should be structured and controlled to prevent an IS recurrence. Though “big picture” political deals over Mosul’s future may ultimately be decisive, the first priority of the Iraqi-international coalition is to secure Mosul. As John Paul Vann, a U.S. military advisor in Vietnam, noted decades ago: “Security may be ten percent of the problem, or it may be ninety percent, but whichever it is, it’s the first ten percent or the first ninety percent. Without security, nothing else we do will last.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, International Security, Reconstruction, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
24. The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The December 2015 Libyan Political Agreement, signed in Skhirat, Morocco, has re- configured more than contributed to resolving internal strife. A year ago, the conflict was between rival parliaments and their associated governments; today it is mainly between accord supporters and opponents, each with defectors from the original camps and heavily armed. The accord’s roadmap, the idea that a caretaker government accommodating the two parliaments and their allies could establish a new political order and reintegrate militias, can no longer be implemented without change. New negotiations involving especially key security actors not at Skhirat are needed to give a unity government more balanced underpinning.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Peacekeeping, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
25. Palestine : de l’Etat introuvable à la nation en déroute. A quoi servent les dirigeants palestiniens ? (Palestine: From an untraceable State to an impossible nation. What purpose do Palestinian leaders serve?)
- Author:
- Laetitia Bucaille
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Today, the creation of a Palestinian state appears to be a distant possibility: the international community rejected to manage the issue, and the leadership in these territories weakened because of its divisions, revealing their inability to advance. Both the political and the territorial partition between the Gaza strip, governed by the Hamas and the West Bank, under Palestinian authority in line with Fatah, reveal a profound crisis that questions the very contours of Palestinian politics. It also shows that Hamas’ integration in the political game made it impossible to pursue the security subcontacting system. Maintaining the system avoids reconstructing the Palestinian political community, and makes it difficult to develop a strategy that moves towards sovereignty. Since October 2015, the popular and pacific resistance project has been shelved by the return of the violence against Israeli civilians. The Palestinian leadership counts on internationalization of the cause, which has shown mediocre results. Will the replacement of Mahmoud Abbas by his competitors permit to leave the rut?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics, Sovereignty, War, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and State
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
26. Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War
- Author:
- Andrew Shaver
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Labor Issues, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, and Quantitative
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
27. ORIGINAL ENGLISH TRANSLATION OF THE 2015 GADI EISENKOT IDF STRATEGY
- Author:
- Ahmad Samih Khalidi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- ONE OF THE MANY REASONS for the humbling of the mighty Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during the 2006 Lebanon War was an Israeli combat doctrine named Systemic Operational Design, better known by its perhaps aptly abbreviated acronym SOD.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
28. The Future of the Middle East
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is still in flux and will remain so for some time, it will possibly be another decade before the ultimate power balance is reached. Policy makers of Iraq and the KRI who wish to pursue paths of their own design, must look carefully at the trends in power dynamics and the policies of the global and regional powers before designing their strategies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
29. Could the Trump Administration Mean a New Beginning for the Kurds?
- Author:
- Zachary Gallant
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The shift of United States (US) foreign policy from a heavy international focus with traditional alliances over the past century to the anti-globalist administration promised by President-elect Donald Trump will necessarily upset longstanding regional relations in the Middle East and North Africa. This Policy Paper discusses some of the Trump administration’s most likely foreign policy advisers and their positions on Kurdish self-governance, as well as those of some previous policymakers whose legacies he will be unable to escape.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- America and Middle East
30. The Reconstruction of Islamic State-Liberated Areas
- Author:
- Irene Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Nearly thirteen years since the beginning of one of the largest programmes for post-conflict reconstruction, Iraq finds itself again in need of international financial assistance, but the conditions are hardly the same. This time the role of the international community should be matched by the Iraqi political leadership taking responsibility for the country and all of its population.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East