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691. Healing the Legacies of Conflict in Afghanistan: Community Voices on Justice, Peace and Reconciliation

Author:
Emily Winterbotham
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This paper synthesises the findings from AREU's Legacies of Conflect research project from across the Bamiyan, Ghazni and Kabul research sites, in search of broadly acceptable approaches to address the legacies of conflict and support reconciliation in the country. It also examines the political context for transitional justice and reconciliation and considers which policies might need to be changed or adopted. The research found that many Afghans continue to struggle with the legacies of their wartime experiences. They usually saw peace and justice as complementary, and not as alternatives to each other. Justice was often widely conceived to include processes of recognition and recompense, and not simply criminal trials or punitive measures. There was a widespread desire for a strong and caring government that could drive a justice process and also negotiate for a peace that would not only end the insurgency, but reconcile Afghanistan’s different groups. However, a widespread pessimism prevailed about the prospect of this occurring in the near future. In the meantime, certain initiatives—whether locally-driven or at the national level—have the potential to provide a measure of comfort to conflict victims while paving the way for a more enduring peace.
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

692. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East

Author:
Dana McKelvey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

693. Turkey and Armenia Post-Protocols: Back to Square One?

Author:
Diba Nigar Göksel
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
In her article “Turkey and Armenia Post –Protocols: Back to Square One?” Nigar Göksel provides the reader with a brief overview of the history of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia. The article endeavours to shed light on the ways in which “the protocol framework” tried to stimulate a high-level diplomatic normalisation process between the two countries and further examines why this process broke down. As a potentially tricky period approaches, more clarity and communication is needed to create a conducive environment to move forward in the future. Only then will stumbling blocks, like the Nagorno-Karbakh conflict, be solvable. Nigar Göksel makalesinde Türkiye ve Ermenistan arası diplomatik ilişkilerin kısa bir tarihçesini okurla paylaşırken, geliştirilen “protokol çerçevesi” ile iki ülke arası normalleşme sürecine ışık tutuyor. Göksel bu sürecin neden uzun soluklu olamadığını araştırırken; siyasi çıkmazın aşılabilmesi, ileriye dönük somut adımlar atılması ve bölgesel anlaşmazlıkların (Dağlık –Karabağ sorunu gibi) çözülebilmesi adına, gelecek dönemde ülkeler arası açık politikalar izlenmesi ve doğrudan iletişim kurulması gerekliliğine dikkat çekiyor.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Genocide, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Armenia

694. Negotiating the Cyprus Problem(s)

Author:
Mete Hatay and Rebecca Bryant
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This paper was prepared by Mete Hatay and Rebecca Bryant. Mete Hatay is based in the North and has worked with TESEV for many years. Rebecca Bryant is an academic who has long worked on the Cyprus conflict.What they successfully achieve in their paper is articulating the Turkish Cypriot viewpoint regarding the negotiations, the property question and the relationship between Turkey and North Cyprus. Despite the seemingly countless barriers and setbacks, Hatay and Bryant also outline suggestions that can build confidence between the two communities so that step by step the Cyprus problem can get closer to being solved.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

695. Turkey-Armenia Relations

Author:
Fatih Ozbay
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Turkey is situated at the crossroads of the regions which are of utmost importance and which pose many problems at the same time. Turkey, as a requirement of continuity in its foreign policy, tries to adopt a multi-dimensional and active approach. Doctrine and discourse-wise, fundamentals of this multi-dimensional and dynamic foreign policy lies under the principle of Atatürk, “Peace at home, peace in the world.” One can see the most concrete implications of Turkey’s multi-dimensional and proactive foreign policy in the Sa’dabat Pact and Balkan Pact, which had been established during the budding years of the Republic of Turkey. Turkey’s foreign policy approach aims at the formation of domestic, regional and global peace, and stability. As the continuation of this foreign policy approach, Turkey, by virtue of its zero problems with neighbors policy, tries to solve its problems through dialogue and plays an active role in the areas with regional conflicts. Turkey also takes steps that will boost economic and cultural rapport among the countries in the region. Turkey has been able to make use of the proper conditions arising from the dynamic structure of the new international system after the Cold War Period. Within this scope, Turkey has been able to put into practice its approach of proactive and multi-dimensional foreign policy over certain subgeographic systems, namely the geopolitics of the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and other important parts of the world. In other words, the dynamic structure of the international system, which has undergone a huge change-transformation after the Cold War Period, has also reflected upon the sub-systems. Turkey, as a result of this dynamism, has been able to realize its foreign policy parameters especially in its region due to its unique geopolitical location.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Armenia

696. State Corruption in Post-War Lebanon: The Relation Between Post-War Inclusive Institutions and State Corruption

Author:
Gülsen Devre
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Power sharing and inclusion have often been viewed as remedies for deeply divided societies all around the globe. However, power sharing as a conflict management tool also has its drawbacks when it is viewed outside of the pre-dominant liberal peace paradigm. These downsides and flaws may not necessarily do away with the underlying principle of power sharing formula in strategies of conflict management and peace building. Yet, both practitioners and academicians should be aware of its disadvantages, and consider complementary or alternative mechanisms. After all, one of its main outcomes appears to be state corruption, as viewed within this case study of Lebanon.
Topic:
Corruption, Political Power Sharing, Conflict, Institutions, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

697. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq

Author:
Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

698. The Middle East Policy of the Republic of Turkey

Author:
Şener Aktürk
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Recently, it seems that the Middle East has become the main focus of Turkey’s contemporary foreign policy. Without any doubt, one of the reasons for this focus is that the Justice and Development Party (AKP), within the context of their main foreign policy directions, is determined to enlarge their role in the region since the day they came to power. However, it has to be said that various conditions are also forcing the government towards this direction. For example, directly after the electoral victory in 2002, the AKP was confronted with the US intervention in Iraq in 2003. Acting with the knowledge that this intervention would cause instability and chaos in the region, and to avoid a war, Turkey took the initiative to hold meetings with countries bordering Iraq. When it was evident that the war could not be prevented, the government agreed upon the opening of its’ southern borderfront with Iraq to the US, which gave them access to Northern Iraq through Turkey. Yet, the Turkish parliament disapproved this gesture by AKP. After American military operations ended, the Turkish government attempted, in a somewhat controversial manner, to send a military force that would be part of the coalition forces to Iraq. This attempt was blocked by the Iraqis and especially by the Northern-Iraqi Kurds. Eventually, when the Kurds became the closest allies of the Americans in Iraq, the Turkish-American relations were occasionally quite tense. Before 2003, Turkey was able to fly into Northern Iraq to fight against the PKK. However, it found itself unable to enter Iraq for a long time soon after the Americans arrived to the country. Even today, for Turkey, the main problem in the Middle East region remains the question of Iraq’s future. The developments in Iraq and its consequences are undoubtedly the main triggers for Turkey to play a more active role in the Middle East diplomacy. Within this scope, it seems that Turkish diplomacy has successfully expanded its ‘macro diplomacy’ with ‘micro diplomacy’ by establishing contacts with several different sectarian and political groups in Iraq. Later on, similar activities have taken place in Lebanon, while the relations with the Palestinians have also been strengthened. Although it seems slightly assertive, the notion of ‘zero problems with neighboring countries’ seems to be a creative concept as well. A detailed analysis of AKP’s Middle East policy will be further examined within the upcoming subparagraphs of this research report. Yet, before doing so, it seems useful to have a look at the continuous and divergent elements of the Middle East policies that have been adopted by the various governments since the foundation of the Turkish Republic. This approach will, on some level, shed light on what extent the discourse of ‘Turkey was pursuing a relatively passive Middle East policy’ before AKP administration reflects the reality.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

699. Jordanian Tribal Violence: Historical Context and Current Problems

Author:
Hayley Mohan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s rich developmental history in both the political and social spheres have been complex and dynamic, ever since the country’s creation in the early 1920s. If any research pertaining to Jordan’s society is to be understood, it first must be placed in a historical context, and later examined on its own. Perhaps the most prevalent social issue facing this country is violence between tribes and dangerous infighting. While crime is considered low in Jordan,1 2009 started a seemingly peculiar upswing in the number of violent disputes between tribes. Although the problem itself is not new because Jordan has always been a tribally organized society, the statistics of 2009, which will be discussed later on, provide an interesting foundation for discussion. Using that year as a jumping-off point, we will ask several key questions to anchor our research: What is the historical background of tribes in Jordan? Has this changed over time? What made 2009 an unusual year? What can we conclude, or solutions can be suggested? Ideally, discovered case studies and examples will be able to help us glean an understanding of this complicated social issue.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Violence, Tribes, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

700. Multilateral Imposition: An Immodest Proposal for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:
Michael Barnett
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Which is more likely in the next five years: that the Israelis and Palestinians negotiate a peace agreement or that they continue a “status quo” that turns into an accidental suicide pact? The safe bet is suicide.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine