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681. Yemen's National Dialogue

Author:
Charles Schmitz
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Facing popular protests, a secessionist movement in the south, a spiraling security crisis, and a deep fracturing of political factions, Yemen’s political elite acceded to the Gulf initiative in 2011, which established a caretaker transitional government. The agreement signed in Riyadh stipulated a two-year transitional period and created a National Dialogue Conference (NDC) as a forum to solve the country’s political problems. The results of the National Dialogue will form the basis for a new constitution, and Yemenis will then elect a new government to conclude the transitional period. The National Dialogue has concluded, but it is not clear whether it can really solve Yemen’s political problems. The two-year transitional period ended without a new constitution or elections—these will be held at some undetermined later date—and facts on the ground may be outpacing the deliberations of the political elite and their international backers. The government cannot prevent attacks on its oil pipelines or electrical grid; al-Qa`ida operates with almost impunity in the capital city Sana; the Houthi movement is expanding its area of control, recently taking the symbolically important towns of Huth in Amran and Dammaj in Sa`ada; and the south remains unsettled and far from accepting of any solutions proposed by the Sana elite. In February 2014 the committee created to “resolve” the issue of southern rebellion decided on a federal system of government composed of six regions. Yet most Yemenis do not know what federalism is, and what’s more, they don’t care. Deteriorating security and the rise of poverty have overwhelmed any interest most citizens might have in the details of the elite’s visions for the future of the country. Both Saudi Arabia and the United States, the most important foreign actors in Yemen and backers of the Gulf initiative, are focused on their own regional interests, sometimes to the detriment of Yemeni interests. The Saudis want to maintain their influence on the Yemeni government, fight Iranian influence, and control threats from Yemeni soil spilling over into Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis recently expelled from the Kingdom hundreds of thousands of Yemeni workers, exacerbating Yemen’s desperate economic situation. The United States is focused on al-Qa`ida and Iran. The American drone campaign continues to wreak havoc, recently killing members of a wedding party in spite of President Obama’s new procedures to bring the targeted assassinations under the color of law, and the United States seems unable to relinquish its misperception that the Houthis in Sa`ada constitute a new Hezbollah. With such deep divisions in Yemen’s political body and in the competing regional agendas of Yemen’s foreign backers, Yemen’s prospects for a peaceful political settlement that will allow the country to stabilize and grow seem dim.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

682. Sensitive to Conflict?: Development Cooperation and Peacebuilding in the Palestinian Context

Author:
Neda Noraie-Kia
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Development organisations face numerous challenges in the context of violent conflict. Development cooperation has to be sensitive to conflict in order to be effective and do no harm. PCIA as developed by Kenneth Bush is one approach among others to ensure conflict sensitivity for development and peacebuilding efforts. This working paper applies Bush’s concept of PCIA to the Palestinian case in order to analyse benefits, limitations and potential improvements of his approach. His specific method will be discussed critically based on a literature review and expert interviews conducted with practitioners from the most relevant state and multilateral development agencies. Considering the specific challenges in the Palestinian context this study aims to contribute to the debate on conflict sensitive development cooperation. The analysis of the Palestinian case eventually should help to identify gaps and potential fields for future research.
Topic:
Security, Development, Conflict, Borders, Peace, and Territory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

683. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

684. Three Expansion Scenarios for Houthi Movement

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In the three years since the start of the 2011 youth revolution, the Houthi movement has achieved remarkable military expansion into five northern Yemeni governorates outside its operations headquarters in Saada governorate. The Shiite movement has demonstrated solid military capability that has in turn allowed it to simultaneously fight on several fronts. This paper discusses the three possible trajectories for the movement given that it is difficult to ascertain its aims, strategic objectives and future course. First, it is possible the movement will gain military dominance. Second, it could pursue civilian integration. Finally, the movement could pursue a hybrid of military and civil society building activities. The movement’s internal dynamics and the extent to which Yemeni and regional players can influence it will be the deciding factor.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Conflict, Revolution, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

685. Gaza, Round Three: Limits of Israeli Power

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
On 13 July 2014, five days after the start of the third Israeli war against the Gaza Strip, Haaretz, known for its liberal Zionist orientation, published an editorial calling on the Netanyahu government to announce that Israel had achieved its objectives. This editorial also implicitly called for him to stop the war. The editorial told Netanyahu and his government that the war had failed and that there was no justification for its continuation because that would lead to further failure. In fact, the heavy material damages inflicted by the Gaza rockets and the ability of such rockets to paralyse many aspects of life in Israeli towns and cities, in addition to dozens of international airlines suspending their flights to Tel Aviv airport, had brought Netanyahu’s war to a stalemate. This paper addresses the reasons Netanyahu decided to go to war, why it quickly become evident that this war would fail, and why the failure of Netanyahu’s war has become a double failure for Egypt, which has now clearly indicated that it is closer to the Israeli government than to its Palestinian brothers.
Topic:
War, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

686. When Proxies Fail, Force Must Prevail U.S.-Iran Relations

Author:
Jonathan Ruhe
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
For decades, the United States and Iran have pursued fundamentally incompatible strategic objectives. Yet despite having expansive goals and minimal mutual interests, each side has recognized that direct confrontation would jeopardize its ultimate goal. Thus competition between the two countries often has taken less decisive, but also less risky, forms of behavior, namely: diplomacy, sanctions, and the use of proxy forces. Given the stakes involved, however, relying entirely on such measures to convey the seriousness of one’s intentions is insufficient. Indeed, the United States has been most successful influencing Iranian policy when it has demonstrated its own willingness to use force or supported actors using military force directly against Iran – and conversely, least successful when it has failed to do so. ​ The two countries have long held mutually exclusive aims. The United States wants to remain predominant in the Middle East to ensure the free flow of natural resources and the security of its allies, even as it withdraws troops after more than a decade of war and faces an uncertain fiscal future. The Iranian regime pursues nuclear weapons capability to protect against its perceived danger from a U.S.-supported overthrow, provide an umbrella under which it can project unmatchable power against its neighbors, and validate its continuing right to rule, among other goals. Both objectives are highly ambitious and in direct conflict with each other. ​ Therefore the lethargy of peace suits both rivals well, as neither side feels it can afford an overt rupture. For the United States, direct conflict would critically endanger its efforts to maintain regional stability with a receding regional footprint. For Iran, it would seriously delay its approach to a nuclear weapons capability. There is little middle ground for diplomacy to secure, given the two countries’ ultimately irreconcilable goals.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

687. Ugly Truths: Saddam Hussein and Other Insiders on Iraq’s Covert Bioweapons

Author:
Amy Smithson
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Although the inspections of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), which operated from April 1991 to October 1998, unmasked Iraq’s biological weapons program and revealed a considerable amount of detail about its planning, organization, and execution, various factors about the program remain unclear. These gaps in information persisted through the activities and reporting of both the United Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspections Commission, which existed from December 1999 until the outbreak of the second Gulf War in March 2003, and the Iraq Survey Group, which reported on the remnants of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction capabilities after the 2003 Gulf War.1 To deepen understanding about Iraq’s biological weapons program, a team of analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) identified a number of research questions that, if answered, would provide a more comprehensive account of Iraq’s biological and chemical weapons programs. The twenty research questions ran the gamut of relevant topics. Specifically with regard to the bioweapons program, the research questions sought to clarify the reasons behind Iraq’s choice of biowarfare agents and delivery systems, the timeline and technical specifics for certain activities, possible interaction with governments and biowarfare experts outside of Iraq, the management of the program, and the details of how Iraq disposed of its biological munitions and bulk biowarfare agent. In an effort to answer some or all of these questions, CNS’s staff turned to the records of the Conflict Records Research Center (CRRC) database. In mid-July 2011, the time in which CNS’s staff reviewed the CRRC records for information pertinent to Iraq’s biological weapons program, it should be noted that a relatively small fraction of the documents in the possession of the CRRC had been translated into English and made available in the CRRC database. Accordingly, the review of the database did not turn up a tremendous number of documents providing insights about Iraq’s biological weapons program. Nonetheless, the review uncovered several documents that shed light largely on the political management of Iraq’s bioweapons program and how Iraq’s leaders tried to cope with UNSCOM’s inspections. This report, which begins with a brief review of the search methodology, otherwise presents the research findings in rough but not exact chronological order. To help the reader quickly grasp the relevance of the research findings in a history that is complicated and sometimes full of technical detail, the research findings are interlaced with background derived largely from Germ Gambits: The Bioweapons Dilemma, Iraq and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2011). Germ Gambits, which tells the tale of UNSCOM’s bioweapons inspections in Iraq, is based primarily on interviews with UNSCOM inspectors, buttressed by UNSCOM documents and secondary materials. Therefore, any citation to Germ Gambits is based on numerous authoritative sources. Because this report provides the unadulterated Iraqi view on certain topics, in a certain sense it is like seeing the other side of the coin that Germ Gambits presents. CNS Senior fellow Amy E. Smithson, PhD, wrote Germ Gambits and was the principal researcher reviewing the biological weapons-related documents in the CRRC database.
Topic:
United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, Conflict, and Biological Weapons
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

688. The Political Science of Syria’s War

Author:
Marc Lynch, Fotini Christia, Laia Balcells, James Fearon, and Roger Petersen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Arab Uprisings, Civil War, Spotlight, Syria POMEPS Studies 5: The Political Science of Syria’s War POMEPS Studies 5The Political Science of Syria’s War POMEPS Studies 5 – December 18, 2013 * For more references on Syria and civil wars click here. Syria is about to enter its third year of a brutal conflict which has killed more than 100,000 people and driven millions from their homes. What began as a peaceful civil uprising inspired by the successful Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings has long since devolved into a complex, protracted civil war fueled by an array of external interventions on all sides. It’s hardly the first complex civil war to scar the modern world, though. Indeed, the study of civil wars is arguably among the richest current research programs in all of political science. So what does the political science literature on civil wars and insurgencies have to say about Syria’s evolving war and how it might be ended? To find out, last month I convened a workshop through the Project on Middle East Political Science (which also sponsors the Middle East Channel). I invited more than a dozen of the leading scholars of civil wars to write memos applying their research to the Syrian case. These scholars were joined by a number of Syria specialists, and a range of current and former U.S. government officials with responsibility for Syria. This special POMEPS Brief collects the memos prepared for that conference, along with several articles previously published on the Middle East Channel. The overall conclusion of most of the contributors will come as no surprise: The prospects for either a military or a negotiated resolution of Syria’s war are exceedingly grim. But that’s only part of the story. More interesting, perhaps, are the reasons that Syria seems so resistant to resolution — and how international policies have contributed to the problem.
Topic:
Conflict, Syrian War, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

689. Iran in the 10th Year of the 2nd Gulf War

Author:
BILGESAM
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The second Gulf War ended the Ba’ath regime in Iraq, exhausted by wars and embargoes for 23 years. Because of the war Iraq plunged into chaos and came almost to the verge of a de facto disintegration. The War has not only changed the internal balances in Iraq but also affected the Middle Eastern geopolitics profoundly. While a new political structure had been created in Iraq reflecting the primacy of the majority Shiite groups, the de facto autonomy of Kurdish groups in the north, which have developed close relations with the USA, has gradually gained a constitutional character. The PKK terrorist organization recovered during this period increased its maneuvering capability in northern Iraq and Qandil Mountain and intensified its attacks against Turkey. Following the withdrawal of USA troops at the end of 2011, instability in Iraqi politics has deteriorated and it was observed that that emerging power vacuum is being filled to a large extent by Iran. The “Iraq in the Tenth Year of the Second Gulf War” report pay attention to Iraqi actors, the emerging state structure and the political-economic situation of the country, as well as the way how the emerging power vacuum affects the region and Turkey. The report analyzes the deepening political instability and internal disputes in the post-US Iraq, Turkey’s relations with the central government and the Kurdish Administration in the north. The report also tries to explore the future of the ongoing political and economic instability in Iraq and provides the Turkish decision-makers with recommendations for Turkey’s national interests.
Topic:
Economics, Conflict, Kurds, Gulf War, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

690. Assessing Turkey’s Performance As a Norm Entrepreneur in Syrian Crisis

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Norms matter in world politics; and it is actually the norms, rather than complicated provisions of treaties or other formal arrangements, that the state express strong willingness to comply with. Norms are also significant as they reshape the conduct of interstate affairs and the overall outlook of the international political stage. From a constructivist perspective, norms are expected to take reign in the aftermath of a major and pervasive transformation in global stage. Such norms are further consolidated and legally backed by the repetitive compliance of states which turn them into binding customs that are applicable to all similar cases regardless of whether parties to these cases express their consent to abide by them as international legal rules.
Topic:
International Law, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Norms
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria