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32. The New Arab Uprisings: How the 2019 trajectory differs from the 2011 legacy? (Part 1)
- Author:
- Peter Bartu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In 2019,the Middle East seems beset by conflict, chaotic politics and dysfunctional economies.However, the mood of the people in Algeria,Sudan,Lebanon and Iraq is more defiant.Not since 2011 have we seen such public demonstrations for accountability and an end to corruption,war and foreign meddling.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Arab Spring, Conflict, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Algeria, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
33. US-Iran tensions: East Asian Perspectives
- Author:
- Scott Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On the 3rd of January 2020, the United States signalled its intent to escalate tensions with Iran, through the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds forces, in Iraq. Following attacks from Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia on the American embassy in Baghdad, the escalation took place on a backdrop of worsening US-Iranian relations, focused on the US withdrawal of the Iranian nuclear deal (and Iran’s subsequent rollback of key commitments), the reinstatement of economic sanctions against Iran, and increasing tensions in the Straits of Hormuz. Such tensions have been met with concern in East Asia, particularly among countries that have been steadily expanding their relationships with Iran. Responses, however, reflect a continuation of business as normal rather than any great change. While Malaysia, for example, has condemned the assassination in line with their growing closeness to Iran, there has been no tangible change of policy. Indonesia, who has developed a relationship but emphasised their desire to remain neutral in the Iran-Saudi tensions, have avoided making overt statements in support of Iran or condemning US action. For the most part, therefore, Southeast Asian states have been unwilling and unable to abandon their relationship with the US and other key states such as Saudi Arabia, or isolate themselves by supporting Iran overtly. For other East Asian states, overtly supporting Iran runs the risks of encouraging the escalation of the conflict and the damaging of their interests, such as is the case with China. As such, this paper will argue that while the perception surrounding Soleimani’s assassination among East Asia is for the most part negative, this will not fundamentally impact on their relationship with the US or spur a further shift to Iran. Instead, in the face of continuing US pressure on Iran, Iran’s relationships within East Asia have begun to ultimately suffer. This paper will begin by analysing the expansion of Iran’s relationship with East Asian states before going on to argue how these are likely to decline in future despite these countries’ concerns of US actions as well as actions of other important states such as Saudi Arabia. While Iran has expanded its relationship with a number of partners in East Asia, this paper will focus on relationships Iran finds particularly important. Primarily, this is Malaysia and Indonesia, who, as countries with Muslim majority populations, have seen their involvement with Iran growing at a faster pace than others but in relationships mired in complexity. It will also consider China’s perspective; a relationship that has taken on importance for different reasons.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Conflict, Qassem Soleimani, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Malaysia, Middle East, East Asia, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America
34. COVID-19: The Lingering Conflict and the Regional Balance of Power in Yemen
- Author:
- Moosa Elayah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The longer the pandemic lasts, with its detrimental financial and social effects, the higher the chances for terrorist groups to increase their influence in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria and spread this to neighbouring countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
35. Unparalleled: COVID-19 and the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen
- Author:
- Leah Zamore, Hanny Megally, and Tayseer Alkarim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- After five years of devastating conflict, Yemen now faces an escalating COVID-19 crisis. The effects of the war have drastically diminished the country’s ability to cope with a pandemic, and the economic impact of the crisis is rapidly becoming devastating as well. If allowed to take hold, COVID-19 threatens the lives of nearly 30 million people who are already suffering through the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Nor is the risk posed by COVID-19’s spread in Yemen limited to Yemenis. A pandemic that recognizes no borders or fault-lines cannot fester anywhere without threatening health security everywhere. Yet the international response so far has been both muted and slow. A new approach is urgently needed—one that aims not only to address the immediate threat that COVID-19 poses, but to tackle the underlying conditions that have left Yemen so uniquely vulnerable to the virus in the first place. This report explains how Yemen became so vulnerable to COVID-19, traces the impact of the pandemic so far, including the risk to vulnerable groups, and offers a critical perspective on the international action necessary to prevent further catastrophe in a country already suffering the world’s worst humanitarian crisis—from renewed pressure for a ceasefire to a dramatically scaled-up humanitarian response.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
36. Last Refuge or Last Hour? COVID-19 and the Humanitarian Crisis in Idlib
- Author:
- Leah Zamore and Tayseer Alkarim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The humanitarian crisis in northern Syria is on the verge of becoming a COVID-19 catastrophe. A decade of conflict has left the healthcare system in ruins—and millions of displaced people in Idlib province were already suffering due to a lack of shelter and sanitation. Now, with the coronavirus pandemic posed to spread to an area with just 600 doctors and fewer than 50 adult ventilators for four million people, the situation is dire. Why is Idlib the last refuge for internally displaced Syrians, and what can donors, international humanitarian actors, and local organizations do to ensure that they are not left behind as the world grapples with COVID-19? This policy briefing by Tayseer Alkarim, Hanny Megally, and Leah Zamore delves into roots of the humanitarian crisis in Idlib, details the current capacity of the exhausted healthcare system amid the ongoing conflict, and examines what these constraints mean for mounting a response to the spread of the coronavirus. The briefing explains how donors and international humanitarian organizations can take action now to support local institutions, increase testing and treatment capacity, improve availability of PPE and public information, and press for an immediate ceasefire. The plight of Idlib is one of the most complex humanitarian dilemmas of our time, influenced by prolonged conflict, a looming COVID-19 outbreak, and the ongoing failure of the international community to take effective action. A further failure to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Idlib will cost lives—and risk global health security further by allowing the virus to spread in one of the places that is least-equipped to contain it.
- Topic:
- Health, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Idlib
37. Implications of the Proposed China-Iran deal for India
- Author:
- Sruthi V.S.
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- The ambitious $400 billion deal between China and Iran has garnered worldwide attention. The 18-page draft proposal says that China will facilitate the infusion of about $280 billion to Iran. This major economic and security partnership between China and Iran has raised India’s concerns against the backdrop of its ongoing border conflict with China. According to the New York Times report, the proposed China-Iran deal talks about expanding China’s presence in Iran’s “banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects”, and in return China will receive a steady supply of oil from Iran for the next 25 years at a discounted price. There are more than 100 projects listed in the draft that will see Chinese investments; these include building Free Trade Zones and several very significant ports. The Chinese will also help Iran build infrastructure for 5G networks and come up with an internet filter like the Great Firewall in China. The stronghold of China in Iran could also result in undermining US policy in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia
38. Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
- Author:
- Julien Barnes-Dacey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- After nine years of conflict, the US is mounting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Syria, seeking the regime’s demise. But, with Assad having effectively won the war, he is unlikely to succumb to US economic pressure. Assad bears responsibility for the country’s freefall but this strategy will further accelerate societal collapse, especially as coronavirus looms, and will not deliver a transition. European governments should pivot to a longer-term strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future aligned with European interests. This should include increased – and cautious – support to them within government-controlled Syria. The unpredictability of the Trump administration means persuading the US down this track is not impossible – Europeans should seek to influence Washington to widen space for societal support.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Syria
39. War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen
- Author:
- Raiman Al-Hamdani and Helen Lackner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Since the 2010s, a wide range of separatist movements have represented the main political demands in southern Yemen. These groups are motivated by their geographical and historical origins, backed by various foreign powers, and divided by their demands for independence or autonomy. The Southern Transitional Council, the most prominent separatist group, claims to represent the south as a whole but it has limited control over parts of western governorates. The 2019 clash between the council and the internationally recognised government poses the most serious threat to the anti-Houthi coalition since the start of the Yemen conflict. The implementation of the Riyadh Agreement is far behind schedule and it is unclear whether Saudi Arabia will be able to enforce the deal, given the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen. The European Union should continue to support development and state-building in Yemen, increase its efforts to mediate between Yemenis, and develop institutional and democratic platforms on which southerners can achieve self-determination.
- Topic:
- Development, Conflict, Separatism, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
40. Projecting Stability to the South: NATO’s other challenge
- Author:
- Chloe Berger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- In the spring of 2020, the Atlantic Alliance's "large periphery" to the South, which extends from the Sahel to the Asian borders of the Arabian Gulf, remains in a state of dangerous instability. The health and containment measures taken by the authorities against the COVID-19 crisis have put popular claims to rest. The case of Lebanon shows, however, that the urgency of the pandemic has not made the demands of the population disappear. Beyond managing the health crisis, there is no doubt that the future of the region's leaderships will largely depend on their ability to mitigate both the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as the political ones.
- Topic:
- NATO, Political stability, Alliance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa