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2. The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War
- Author:
- Andrew Shaver and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results have strong policy implications; confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency; and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic.
- Topic:
- War, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Information Age, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
3. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq
- Author:
- Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East
4. Killing Civilians Intentionally: Double Effect, Reprisal, and Necessity in the Middle East
- Author:
- Michael L. Gross
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- MICHAEL L. GROSS examines the arguments that Palestinians and Israelis offer when innocent lives are taken. He challenges Palestinian claims that existential threats (supreme emergency) or reprisals for past wrongs can justify terror attacks on noncombatants. At the same time, he objects to Israeli explanations that invoke the doctrine of double effect and claim that noncombatants are not killed intentionally but die as an unintended side effect of necessary military operations.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Conflict, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine