Search

Begin New Search Topic Autocracy Political Geography Middle East

1. İmamoğlu Arrested: Türkiye Shifting to Autocracy

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Demonstrations in Türkiye erupted in March when the Istanbul prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of that city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opponent of current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential contest. The attack on the opposition candidate appears to be a turning point indicating Türkiye’s entry onto the path of authoritarianism, which will negatively affect the state of Turkish-EU relations.
Topic:
European Union, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Ekrem İmamoğlu
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2. Survival strategies in the Middle East: Foreign policy in the service of regime security. The cases of Egypt and UAE.

Author:
Johannes Späth, Carsten Minh Vo, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This policy analysis examines foreign policy making in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It highlights how internal power dynamics and the interaction between formal institutions and informal networks shape foreign policy making in these two different types of Middle Eastern autocracies. The study identifies the politically relevant elite coalitions and their impact on decision-making. In both regimes, the circle at the top of the power pyramid is rather small and characterized by informal and family ties. A small and homogeneous elite promotes cohesion, but also limits the diversity of opinions. The royal elite in the UAE and the military and intelligence elite at the core of the al-Sisi regime in Egypt pursue their own economic interests in the service of regime security and stability. The paper identifies areas where the regional and foreign policies/interests of the two friendly countries and their elites diverge.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Autocracy, Regional Politics, and Regime Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Egypt, and UAE

3. How Autocracy Prevailed in Tunisia

Author:
Sarah Yerkes and Sabina Henneberg
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Any future democratic renewal will require an entirely new movement that goes much further toward addressing the country’s deepest economic and social injustices. Not long ago, Tunisia was considered one of the biggest success stories in the Middle East and North Africa. Unlike neighboring Arab countries that experienced massive popular uprisings in 2011, Tunisia did not immediately revert to authoritarianism or descend into civil war. Instead, after its longtime dictator fled, an interim government held free and fair elections. The new, democratically elected regime adopted a liberal constitution and allowed civil society and independent media to flourish. By now, however, that success has decisively unraveled. Last month, for the first time in 14 years, Tunisia held a sham presidential election, marked by extensive manipulation and repression...
Topic:
Arab Spring, Protests, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and Tunisia

4. Israel, Europe, and the Russia-Iran Axis

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
With the world divided between a U.S.-led order of democracies on the one hand, and a cartel of aggressive autocracies – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – on the other, that is challenging America and its allies, Europe has an important role to play in Israel’s war against Iran and its proxies.
Topic:
National Security, Autocracy, Proxy Groups, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5. Turkey: The beginning of the next phase of autocratization or the revival of democracy

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In May 2023, Turkey will hold the most critical elections since the founding of the Republic 100 years ago. For the first time in 20 years in power, public polls point at an electoral defeat of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. What does the crisis and potential demise of President Erdoğan mean for Turkey? Is this the beginning of a next phase of autocratization or the chance for transition to democracy? Autocratization came gradually after recurrent electoral victories of the ruling AKP. The executive takeover (Svolik 2019) has entailed the colonization of state institutions, the control of the judiciary, the mainstreaming of media, the curtailment of democratic rights and liberties and the reorganization of business capital. Authoritarianism reached a new level after the failed coup attempt of 2016 and introduction of a presidential system in 20181. Ever since executive powers are united in the hands of the president. He can rule with executive orders, appoint ministers and bureaucrats and redesign institutions and ministries without the approval of the parliament. Parliament was weakened and checks and balances largely elimitnated. Independent state institutions such as the Supreme Election Committee, the Regulatory Radio and Televison Authority or the Central Bank have lost their autonomy. Without exception, they are all led by loyal supporters who are appointed by the president.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, AKP, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

6. Autumn of the patriarch: How to help Tunisians defend their democracy

Author:
Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Recent arrests and protests in Tunisia are a sign of growing instability in the country and panic in the government over waning public support. President Kais Saied seized full power more than 18 months ago but he has spent his time embedding autocracy through constitutional reform rather than attending to Tunisia’s economic and social problems. The president’s indecisive and reclusive nature leaves Tunisia in economic limbo as he fails to show the leadership required, including to give confidence to international partners and financial institutions. Europeans have invested heavily in Tunisia. As the US contemplates disengaging from the country, the EU and its partners must assemble a ‘coalition of the concerned’ to put in place the support structures Tunisia will need to withstand Saied’s inevitable crash.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Instability, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

7. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia

Author:
Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia

8. Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With Mahmoud Abbas ageing, a change is drawing near at the top of the Palestinian national movement. It remains unclear how a successor will be chosen. Elections are the best way, but Abbas and his circle are likely to try other, riskier means first.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and West Bank

9. Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report

Author:
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Hannah Blyth, Christina Murphy, Amanda Quinn, George Lehner, and Daniel Ganz
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Fragile States, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, Coup, Instability, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Turkey, Middle East, South Africa, Brazil, Colombia, South America, North America, Ethiopia, Mexico, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America