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51. The Shia armed groups and the future of Iraq

Author:
Kardo Karim Rached and Ahmed Omar Bali
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
In this article, we try to identify the impact of the Shia militias in Iraq on the future of this country. We maintain that these armed groups will be a destabilising factor for Iraq and its neighbours, and they will worsen and deepen the sectarian division in the Middle East. We assess these different groups from different perspectives, for example, using the Weberian theory that the state is the only entity that has a monopoly of violence, Ariel Ahram’s model of state-sponsored and government-sponsored militias, and finally the devolution of violence to these armed groups.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Sectarianism, Armed Forces, Islamic State, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

52. September 2017 Issue

Author:
Ali Soufan, Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Colleen McCue, Joseph T. Massengill, Dorothy Milbrandt, John Gaughan, Meghan Cumpston, Nicholas Blanford, and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Sixteen years after 9/11, al-Qa`ida has a new figurehead (if not a new face) in the form of Hamza bin Ladin. On September 14, the group released an audio statement from Usama bin Ladin’s son calling for jihadis to double down on jihad in Syria and against what he depicted as an American-Russian-Shi`a conspiracy against Islam. It is not clear where Hamza, who is now in his late 20s, is currently based. So protective has al-Qa`ida been that the group has not circulated images of him since he was a child. In our cover article, Ali Soufan tells Hamza’s life story based on a wide range of sources, including recently declassified documents from Abbottabad. He argues that Hamza bin Ladin has not only emerged as al-Qa`ida’s leader in waiting, but is also the figure best placed to reunify the global jihadi movement as the Islamic State’s fortunes wane. Soufan points out Hamza’s hardening rhetoric toward Shi`a may represent an effort to attract deflated Islamic State fighters back into the al-Qa`ida fold. In our interview, Brian Fishman, Facebook’s Counterterrorism Policy Manager, provides a detailed description of how Facebook is using artificial intelligence and a dedicated team of counterterrorism specialists to remove terrorism content from its platform. Given the emergence of a new generation of leadership within al-Qa`ida, it is critical to understand the evolving threat from the group in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Don Rassler outlines how arrest metrics in the mega-city of Karachi point to an uptick in activity by the resilient group. Colleen McCue, Colonel Joseph Massengill, Commander Dorothy Milbrandt, Lieutenant Colonel John Gaughan, and Major Meghan Cumpston outline how the Islamic State is “weaponizing children.” Nicholas Blanford reports from Lebanon on offensives this past summer by the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah against Sunni militants in the country. Aymenn al-Tamimi draws on newly obtained documents to examine the Islamic State’s posture toward Kurds.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Youth, Hezbollah, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and Lebanon

53. Executive Summary: The U.S. Army in the Iraq War, Vol. 1

Author:
Joel D. Rayburn and Frank K. Sobchak
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Originally commissioned by Chief of Staff of the Army General Raymond T. Odierno, The U.S. Army in the Iraq War is the Army’s interim examination of military operations in Iraq from 2003 to 2011. This study, published in two volumes, is a narrative history that tells the story of U.S. forces in Iraq, mainly from the perspective of the theater command in Baghdad and the operational commands immediately subordinate to it. It focuses at the operational level of war, exploring the decisions and intent of the senior three- and four-star commanders and how these decisions effected the course of the war over time. This work was built from over 30,000 pages of previously unavailable declassified documents and hundreds of hours of interviews with senior defense leaders. While the Army will eventually publish a comprehensive, official “Green Book” history that describes Operation Iraqi Freedom in greater depth, this study is being released now in order that key lessons, insights, and innovations from this period of the conflict are available to the next generation of Soldiers and leaders to study, learn from, and adapt to ensure the future readiness of our Army and the Joint Force.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Army, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

54. Hezbollah’s Evolution: From Lebanese Militia to Regional Player

Author:
Nicholas Blanford
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Starting as a revolutionary Shiite militia, the Hezbollah of today dominates the political and military landscape of Lebanon, and possesses tens of thousands of trained fighters as well as an array of sophisticated armaments. Its intervention in Syria on the side of Bashar al-Assad has expanded its influence and reach in the region. As the war in Syria comes to a close, the risk of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel could increase, particularly over the future of the Golan Heights. But the mutual deterrence between the two foes remains strong for the time being. The United States is searching for strategies to limit the power of Iran’s Lebanese proxy, but given the group’s deep immersion within Lebanon’s political, economic, and social milieu, the number of realistic options for external powers to weaken Hezbollah or persuade it to forsake its armed wing are minimal.
Topic:
History, Armed Forces, Political stability, Ideology, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America

55. Iraq’s Fifth Column: Iran’s Proxy Network

Author:
Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
As Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (I.R.G.C.) campaigns against ISIS, the Islamic Republic is strengthening its Shiite militia proxy networks in Iraq. The I.R.G.C.’s expeditionary wing, the Quds Force, is using political connections in the Iraqi government and historical links to veteran Shiite groups to influence Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (P.M.U.s). P.M.U. groups that express support for Khomeini’s wilayat-al faqih and hold the closest ties to the Quds Force are led by commanders that worked with the Quds Force as fighters in the Islamic Resistance of the 1980s and 1990s. However, Iran’s extensive Shiite militia network does not extend to all P.M.U.s. Differences amongst P.M.U. groups will shape the future of Iraqi Shiite socio-political development as P.M.U. groups transition from active militia activity to participation in mass politics.
Topic:
Politics, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

56. Organizative Culture and Military Innovation: the Case of the Israel Defense Forces / Cultura organizativa e innovación militar: el caso de las Fuerzas de Defensa de Israel

Author:
Javier Jordán
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The organizational culture influences the adaptation to change, also in the armies. This article presents a case study on the organizational culture of the Israel Defense Forces and the way it encouraged innovation after the deficiencies detected in the Lebanon war in the summer of 2006.
Topic:
War, Armed Forces, Hezbollah, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

57. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Spring 2015

Author:
Christopher Steinitz, William McCants, Donald Thieme II, and David J. Ulbrich
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Change is many things if not inevitable. It has become a pervasive part of everyday life, yet it defies description or analysis at its most basic level. While many see change as destructive, its presence means that people must continually evolve, adapt, and innovate to meet tomorrow’s challenges. This issue of the Marine Corps University Journal highlights the concept of change in all its forms. Even as recent regional events in the Middle East have challenged the individual governments of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have been the most active in reshaping their existence in the wake of the Arab uprisings. In this issue’s lead article, Christopher Steinitz and William McCants posit that, for the United States, understanding the goals and motivations of these Gulf states remains key to effective international relations. At the regional level, Gulf states are in accord on the need to prevent instability even as their perspectives on the most dangerous threats vary as developments occur. At the global level, Gulf states hope to internationalize the security of the region by keeping the United States engaged and active in the area. While the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are similar in many ways—particularly in their heritage, culture, language, political systems, and economies—their differences highlight the disparity of their goals, strategies, and approaches to foreign policies. While the United States should endeavor to avoid appearing biased toward a single Gulf state, it should actively support a common purpose with its allies for Syria and Egypt. Appearances suggest, however, that the issues with these two Arab states will not end until the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia move in the same direction.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Japan, Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

58. Arab Armed Forces: State Makers or State Breakers?

Author:
Robert Springborg
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Proliferation and intensification of coercive force in the Arab world since 2011, combined with apparent decay of Arab states, seems at first glance to run counter to the implicit predictions of two relevant bodies of literature. The modernization school, which emerged as Arab states were becoming independent in the 1950s, held that Arab militaries were state builders—mobilizing, integrating, and organizing their societies to face development challenges, including that of inter-state war. More or less simultaneously, European-focused historical sociology, led by Charles Tilly, made the case that war making, requiring as it does increased domestic extraction coupled with subordination to central authority of internal rivals, was the engine of state making. And indeed, the historical trajectory of the Arab world for some half a century up until 2011 seemed to substantiate both views, as militaries and states grew in tandem under the ever present threat of war.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Democracy, State, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

59. Gaza, Round Three: Limits of Israeli Power

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
On 13 July 2014, five days after the start of the third Israeli war against the Gaza Strip, Haaretz, known for its liberal Zionist orientation, published an editorial calling on the Netanyahu government to announce that Israel had achieved its objectives. This editorial also implicitly called for him to stop the war. The editorial told Netanyahu and his government that the war had failed and that there was no justification for its continuation because that would lead to further failure. In fact, the heavy material damages inflicted by the Gaza rockets and the ability of such rockets to paralyse many aspects of life in Israeli towns and cities, in addition to dozens of international airlines suspending their flights to Tel Aviv airport, had brought Netanyahu’s war to a stalemate. This paper addresses the reasons Netanyahu decided to go to war, why it quickly become evident that this war would fail, and why the failure of Netanyahu’s war has become a double failure for Egypt, which has now clearly indicated that it is closer to the Israeli government than to its Palestinian brothers.
Topic:
War, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

60. Armed Forces and Democracy

Author:
Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
After the Cold-War, there have been radical changes in the international system and the international structure has, to a certain extent, come to be relative. However, division of power in the international community and non-centralized legal order still dominate their roles of being the most characteristic features of international relations. Under such an atmosphere, “security” (however much its content has changed) is still the “value” that should be primarily protected by individuals, societies and states and the lack of which is the source of concern. Therefore, communities of today’s world also accept the critical function of the armed forces. Furthermore, it has been much clearer in the post Cold War era that the security of an individual and the society is as important as that of the state’s security. In this era, it has also come to the fore that this security of the individual and the society could not be protected without the maintenance of the rule of law, human rights, freedoms and democracy. Therefore, the security provided by the armed forces does not suffice. Then security provided by the armed forces should be backed by democratic values, human rights freedoms and the rule of law. However, the history has showed that the armed forces, in performing its mission of protection, has from time to time easily violated democratic values, human rights, freedoms and the principle of rule of law. In this sense, for the protection of the democratic values and thus for the maintenance of individual and social security, it seems compulsory for the military forces to adhere to the civil authority within the democratic regime and to be controlled by the civil authority alike. In other words, civil-military relations should be conducted on a democratic ground. The problem in civil-military relations is not particular to Turkey or to the countries whose democracy has not yet developed. It is a general problem that manifests itself in different versions in the liberal democracies of the West. The problem in civil-military relations has been much more apparent, especially in America and England with regards to the Iraq and Afghanistan interventions. It would be of use to mention how the theory of political science refers to the importance and the complexity of this problem. According to Peter D. Feaver,1 one of the pioneering names in this scope, the armed forces totally differs from the other state institutions, highlighting where the problem starts. The armed forces is different, as it can be understood from its name of being “armed.” Its big potential of power cannot be compared to any other institution or even to the civil democratic government. Hence, the civil government’s relations with the armed forces cannot be similar to its relations with any other public institutions, such as its relations with any directorate general. The final word in democratic regimes always belongs to the one who comes to power through elections. However, the armed forces has its own hierarchy, disciplinary rules, rules of promotion and assignment and the discretionary power in this scope. The problem is related to the boundaries of this autonomous field.
Topic:
Development, Armed Forces, Democracy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East