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81. A comparative analysis of the Post-Arab Spring National Dialogues in Tunisia and Yemen

Author:
Hannah Hamidi
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Post-conflict societies are in a fragile state in which social cohesion needs to be gradually rebuilt. One of the tools employed to restore social cohesion in a fragile society is the organisation of a national dialogue which would allow most, if not all, of society’s political and civil society actors to air their grievances and make concrete recommendations for the long-lasting resolution of conflict. In the MENA region, both Tunisia and Yemen have organised national dialogues after the Arab Spring with different results. This article uses Jane Jenson’s model on social cohesion to determine why Tunisia’s national dialogue has been more successful than Yemen’s in bringing about social cohesion.
Topic:
Fragile States, Arab Spring, Social Cohesion, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Tunisia

82. The Arab Spring, Dominoes, and Turkey

Author:
Goktug Sonmez
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
In an era of unexpected shifts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the challenges stemmed from these shifting dynamics, the question is whether the new socio-political atmosphere is sustainable in the medium to long-run in spite of politically questionable achievements? In order to address this question, some historical insight along with an elaboration on the concept of “domino theory” could be of some use. Did the “domino effect” of the Arab Spring work in the opposite direction and a “reverse domino effect” turn the picture upside down with authoritarian rulers acquiring power once and for all and eliminating oppositional groups as it is seen from several cases already? From Lenin to Eisenhower, the analogy of “dominoes” and their “fall”, referring to the potential chain reaction following a major political and/or military action / development, found their place in policymaking, and indeed, continued to do so even though direct reference to those terms became less and less popular. However, historical experience implies that despite the popularity of these concepts, dominoes might not fall one after another. Rather, the “next dominoes” can strengthen their position in order to avoid the fate of the last one. Either those regimes would face an irresistible wave of “reverse domino effect” or the fall of some “dominoes” would even help them act more cautiously in order to consolidate what they achieved, one thing is clear; Turkey has the potential and intention to be one of the key players to have an influence over the future and sustainability of the “tectonic shift” we witnessed, better known as “the Arab Spring”. At the same time, unsurprisingly, Turkey is also one of the countries that has been and will be affected by its possible U-turn, too.
Topic:
Social Movement, Popular Revolt, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Syria

83. A National Strategic Framework for Countering Violent Extremism in Jordan

Author:
Ghimar Deeb, Jeffrey Woodham, Mia Chin, and Sawsan Gharaibeh
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Following the uprisings in the Arab world, the region has lurched into a period of massive change and instability. An unfortunate consequence of this change has been the rise and proliferation of militant groups such as ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham) and Jubhat al-Nusra in Iraq and Syria. These militant groups successfully recruit members from the region and beyond, fueling conflict in countries that have witnessed unrest, such as Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. Although Jordan has long been seen as a regional hub of stability and security, especially by its Western allies, it increasingly exhibits symptoms of the long-standing pressures exerted upon it by the surrounding conflicts, resulting refugee crises, and pre-existing domestic challenges. Jordan’s hypothetical fall into instability could have catastrophic consequences for the region, exacerbating the crises in Syria and Iraq, empowering ISIS and other militant groups, and threatening regional and global security. In response, this article offers a general framework for the expansion of the country’s nascent Counter Violent Extremism (CVE) program, including both preventative and remedial measures. Beginning with an overview of the processes of radicalization and de-radicalization, this article proceeds with a brief discussion of Jordan’s current situation before synthesizing scholarly articles and analyses of other CVE programs in order to establish a framework to guide Jordan’s developing CVE interventions.
Topic:
Terrorism, Refugee Crisis, ISIS, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

84. What does Turkey want in Syria and why?

Author:
Suat Kiniklioglu
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This first paper in the DCAF-STRATIM paper series by Suat Kiniklioglu analyses the development of Turkey's policy towards Syria since the start of the Arab Uprisings. It illustrates the factors which contributed to the shift in Ankara's foreign policy focus towards Syria; from its role as the strongest advocate for regime change, to the sole focus on the prevention of a Kurdish consolidated geographical and political entity in Syria. The author describes how Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan and Ahmed Davutoǧlu saw the Arab Uprisings as a unique Turkish moment that could allow the country to regain its long-lost international grandeur. Ankara detected that the Muslim Brotherhood was on the rise in the region. In Tunisia, the Ennahda Movement; in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhvan); and in many other Middle Eastern countries - including Syria - Ikhvan-affiliated movements were on the march.€ The author concludes that, contrasting with the initial enthusi­asm about a "Turkish Moment" when the Arab Uprisings erupted, Ankara will have to settle, it seems, for a much more modest outcome than originally envisaged in 2011.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

85. The Military, the Media and Public Perceptions in Egypt: Communication and Civil-Military Relations

Author:
Romuald Bolliger, Mohamed Elmenshawy, and Ragnar Weilandt
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Following the downfall of President Hosni Mubarak in January 2011, and more markedly after the July 2013 ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's military assumed a new role in national politics. In taking on such new responsibilities and control, the military also came to realize the powerful importance of the media, both as a useful political tool and as a significant potential threat. Building upon their traditional, historical role in Egyptian society, the military resolved to adopt strategies aimed at manipulating and severely controlling media organizations and journalists in order to support the military's agenda and shape public opinion. This paper examines the results of this new military approach to public communication. Specific attention is devoted to the military's communication strategy, its evolution since January 2011, its effects on civil-military relations, as well as the consequences for media freedom.
Topic:
Human Rights, Communications, Military Affairs, Media, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

86. The Revolution Turns Five: Faculty reflections on the fifth anniversary of the Arab uprisings

Author:
Fida Adely, Michael Hudson, Joseph Sassoon, Noureddine Jebnoun, Marwa Daoudy, Emad El-Din Shahin, and Rochelle A. Davis
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
In this fifth year anniversary of the Arab revolts or “Arab Spring,” we might ask ourselves “what has changed in the region?” Given the conflicts raging in the Arab world as we speak, many have concluded that the revolts failed, or that rather than bringing “progress” they have pushed us back—entrenching authoritarianism, displacing millions, exacerbating sectarian differences, etc. But such conclusions reflect a short view of history and a truncated understanding of change. More troublesome, they can fuel a view of the region as unchanging, stagnant, and even backward.
Topic:
Arts, Culture, Social Movement, Economy, Arab Spring, Youth, Syrian War, Revolution, and Counterrevolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arab Countries, Syria, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia

87. How Sectarian Conflicts Overtook the Arab Spring

Author:
Alexander Henley
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Reflections on the problem of sectarianism in the wake of the Arab Revolutions from CCAS’ inaugural American Druze Foundation Postdoctoral Fellow. Why has Sunni-Shi’i sectarianism become the leading issue of debate in Middle East politics over the last few years? Led by rival Sunni and Shi’i theocracies, Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively, the region seems to have fallen into opposing camps in a sectarian cold war. Along the fault-lines in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, Sunnis and Shi’is are fighting for supremacy, backed and incited by coreligionists across the region. The Middle East is in a lamentable state, but this is not— despite what we are increasingly told by news media and political leaders—its natural state. The Middle East’s problems are not “rooted in conflicts that date back millennia,” the excuse President Obama used to explain away foreign policy failures in his final State of the Union address. Phrases like “ancient conflict” or “deep-rooted hatreds”—heard more and more commonly—do not explain the actions of our contemporaries in the Middle East any more than they do yours or mine. And they certainly don’t explain why sectarianism, which emerged as a central feature of regional politics only in the past decade, is so new.
Topic:
Islam, Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Ethnicity, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and North America

88. Five Years Of Conflict Brings New Normals In Damascus

Author:
Benan Grams
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
After four years of being unable to travel to see my home and family in Damascus during what Syrians refer to as “The Crisis,” I am now visiting them for the third time in recent months. The political chaos that swept the country between 2011 and 2015 created high levels of uncertainty about who might be perceived as a threat to the regime, while the deteriorating security conditions elevated the risk of kidnapping and blackmailing. Although for an outsider, the situation does not seem to have become any safer, Syrians, particularly in Damascus, have learned to adapt to the current situation and find a sense of stability in the chaos.
Topic:
Security, Arab Spring, Syrian War, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, Syria, and Damascus

89. Syrian Scholar Finds Safe Haven at CCAS: A Conversation with Visiting Lecturer Mohammad AlAhmad

Author:
Will Todman, Mohammad AlAhmad, and Dana Dairani
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
On April 22, 2015, CCAS Visiting Lecturer Dr. Mohammad AlAmad and his family left their home and lives in Syria behind. “Human smugglers drove us to the Turkish border,” says AlAhmad, “and then my wife and I carried our two young children, walking through barbed wire and muddy water into Turkey. We were full of trepidation, fear, and the pain of being displaced.” Though AlAhmad left Syria because he had been accepted to participate in the Institute of International Education’s Scholar Rescue Fund, which provides support for threatened scholars and places them with visiting appointments at partner academic institutions, he did not yet know his family’s ultimate destination. Once in Turkey, AlAhmad learned that his appointment would be at Georgetown, starting in August.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Refugees, Islamic State, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Literature, Revolution, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Raqqa

90. Reflections Five Years After the Uprisings

Author:
Dina Rashed, Michael Wahid Hanna, Ellen Lust, and Ellis Goldberg
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The early months of 2016 mark five years since the eruption of the Arab uprising. The region’s wars, failed transitions, resurgent authoritarianism, and spiraling sectarianism and Islamist extremism make for a grim anniversary. To take stock of what went wrong and what might still go differently, POMEPS asked more than a dozen scholars to reflect on the experience of the last five years in a single country or a thematic issue. What has changed since the uprisings began half a decade ago? What has remained the same, or returned to pre-uprising forms? What do these developments mean for the political science of the Middle East? All these questions, and more, are pondered in the essays published in POMEPS Studies 18, Reflections Five Years After the Uprisings. All were first published in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, and collected in an open access PDF here. Together, the essays offer a diverse, informed study that should help scholars, journalists, policymakers and the public reflect on the five years since the Arab uprisings, and consider the Middle East’s future.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, Conflict, Syrian War, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia