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61. The Frenemy Next Door: Turkey and Israel in a Changing Middle East

Author:
Oded Eran and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Turkish-Israeli relations suffered a big blow because of the Mavi Marmara affair. As Turkey and Israel are working now on mending their relations, the question remains whether they will be able to avoid fierce competition in a relentlessly changing Middle East following the ‘Arab Spring’. As there are also mutual concerns and incentives to cooperate, the term ‘Frenmity’ may be the best way to describe the future relations between the two. In such a complex relationship, the United States may be of help in increasing the elements of amity and cooperation.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

62. Viral Voices: Revolutionary Song, Social Media, and Youth Culture in the Arab Spring

Author:
Victor A. Vicente
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Değişim Yayınları
Abstract:
Focusing on three popular “anthems” of the Arab Revolutions (“Rais Lebled” by El Général, “#Jan25 Egypt” by Omar Offendum, and “Yalla Erhal Ya Bashar” by “Ibrahim Qashoush”) this article critically assesses the ways in which song has come to serve as a force for instigating socio-political and cultural change in the contemporary Arab World, particularly in Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria. The appeal and efficacy of these songs of the “Arab Spring,” as well as their characterization as “revolutionary,” are understood in aesthetic and technological terms. Hence, the article untangles a complex of interconnected, musically-related themes and issues at the core of the discourse on the recent uprisings; namely, those of self-expression and the power of the Arab youth “voice,” those of transitional dissemination via social media and information and communication technology, and those of documentation and representation through music, specifically through the genre of rap. Analysis of the songs and the themes surrounding them demonstrates substantive advancements in contemporary Arab musical, social, and political life, but also exposes serious shortcomings, naïve misconceptions, and willful exaggerations.
Topic:
Culture, Social Media, Arab Spring, Revolution, and Music
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Syria, Tunisia, and Egypt

63. From Spring to Summer? Revolutionary Change in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya

Author:
Imad El-Anis and Ashraf Hamed
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Değişim Yayınları
Abstract:
This article offers an analysis of the early stages of the revolutions that have been taking place in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Here we consider the early stages of the revolutions from winter 2010-11 up until the summer of 2012 and offers a comparative study of the experiences of the early stage of the revolutions in each case study. In particular this study considers the roles of six variables on the process of regime change and transition as follows: 1) duration of the uprising up to regime change; 2) the initial outcome of the revolution/uprising; 3) the number of deaths and casualties; 4) the postregime change status of key members of the former governing elite; 5) the existence and nature of post-regime change elections; and 6) levels of international involvement. This study finds that in all three case studies, considering these variables offers insight into the nature and effect of the early stages of the revolutions. Furthermore, in each case there are key similarities in some of these variables but significant differences in others which suggest that the processes of transition are not directly comparable with each other. This article also offers some thoughts on how the early stages of these revolutions could affect the direction and pace of change in each state.
Topic:
Regime Change, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia

64. A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis

Author:
Doğan Ertuğrul
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
“A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis “is written by the Star Newspaper columnist Doğan Ertuğrul. Ertuğrul, who has been working on Iran, northern Iraq and the Kurdish issue for over 10 years, has produced numerous research papers and articles concerning the political system in Iran, Iranian Kurds and other minorities as well as political groups in northern Iraq. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Syria since March 2011 and elaborates on Turkish and Iranian policies towards Syria. It further examines the competition between Tehran and Ankara along with the perception of Turkey in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

65. Le rêve arabe de la Turquie brisé par la crise syrienne (The Syrian Crisis Shatters Turkey’s Arab Dream)

Author:
Bayram Balci
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
For ideological and practical reasons the AKP government, in power since November 2002, has engaged in a policy of progressive integration of Turkey into the Muslim, and more particularly, the Arab world. This policy has been facilitated by the country’s booming economy and assertive foreign policy. Turkey, whose government embraced a political ideology similar to those, brought to power by the Arab Spring, benefitted greatly from the ideological effects of the Arab Spring. These benefits were enhanced by the fact that the political ideology of those brought to power by the « Arab Spring » was similar to that of the AKP. Turkey appeared to be becoming a model for the Arab world. However, the crisis in Syria, a country central to Turkey’s Arab policy, and the inability of the Turkish government to remain neutral has put an end to Turkey’s Arab dream. Turkish engagement in the Syrian crisis has caused deterioration in Turkey’s relations with a number of its neighbors and forced it to renew ties with its traditional western allies from whom it had hoped to distance itself in order to be an independent regional and international player.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

66. The Politics of Employment Policy Reform in the Gulf States (Les enjeux des réformes des politiques de l’emploi dans les monarchies du Golfe)

Author:
Laurence Louer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
During the first decade of the 21st century the Gulf States undertook reforms of their social policies based on the generous redistribution of hydrocarbon profits. One of the elements of the redistribution was to guarantee of employment. Beginning in the 1990s rising unemployment indicated that the traditional employment policies were ineffective, generating social tensions as evidenced in the "Arab spring". The goal of the reforms is to move nationals into salaried jobs in the private sector, currently held largely by foreign workers. The change is strongly opposed by business executives and local entrepreneurs. Having become accustomed to inexpensive foreign workers they object to the increased costs entailed by the reforms. The royal families are thus obliged to negotiate between the interests of the private sector, often aligned with their own, and the dissatisfaction of the young, the group most impacted by unemployment and the key players in the protests that erupted in 2011 in Bahrain, Saudi-Arabia and Oman.
Topic:
Civil Society, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Arab Spring, Social Policy, Identities, State, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

67. Partners in Democracy, Partners in Security: NATO and the Arab Spring

Author:
Young Atlanticists
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has created significant challenges and unprecedented opportunities for NATO and its partners in the Mediterranean region. New security issues have emerged alongside new regimes and regional instability looms. State failure, civil conflict, and institutional collapse could present a number of major security threats, among them the creation of a refugee crisis affecting NATO members, increased illegal arms trafficking, and a breeding ground for militant groups in a Somali-like setting near European shores. These threats highlight the need for NATO to set up a plan for fostering regional stability and developing good relations with new and emerging leaders. The changing nature of regional security and Arab governance demands a multi-faceted approach which requires NATO to draw on expertise beyond its own, especially in empowering civil society and youth groups that are the cornerstone of sustainable democracy. Such new challenges require new partnerships and this memo intends to convey two core recommendations: restructure the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) to allow for a more incentivized and effective partnership, and partner with other institutional actors to enable NATO to offer a more comprehensive assistance package. NATO should play to its strengths while working with organizations that specialize in other tasks that are necessary to meet these goals. Only robust partnerships will allow NATO
Topic:
Security, NATO, Civil Society, Refugee Crisis, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North America

68. Challenges to Turkey’s Soft Power in the Middle East

Author:
Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
TESEV’s public opinion surveys in the Arab world that were conducted in 2009 and 2010 demonstrated that Turkey’s attractiveness has been quite high in the region. This attractiveness is due to the perception of Turkish foreign policy; the view of Turkey’s political and economic transformation as a success story; and Turkey’s cultural products. These characteristics point to a possibility of Turkey’s soft power in the region. The question remains, however, how Turkey exercises its soft power, an issue that has become all the more relevant as a result of the Arab Spring. In this article, Meliha Benli Altunışık analyses the influence of Turkey’s “soft power” in the Arab World under “Turkey’s Attractiveness”, “Challenges”, and “The Arab Spring and Turkey” subtitles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Spring, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

69. Turkey’s Image in the Arab World

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The author of this article, Paul Salem states that Turkey’s image in the Arab World (and Iran) became positive in past few years which was negative among the people of the Arab World (and Iran) throughout the 20th century. TESEV’s second survey of public opinion in the Arab world (and Iran) confirms this transformation. The positive opinion includes Turkey as a political, economic and social model; Turkey’s regional mediation and investment; and its popular culture. The TESEV survey shows that the people of the region are very positively inclined toward Turkey, and this implies that they would be favorable to a broader Turkish role that goes beyond confronting Israel, and toward helping the societies of the region move more steadily toward democratic change and economic development. Paul Salem concludes that as the people of the region rebel in favor of democratic change, Turkey certainly has even more potential and responsibility in the Arab World.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Public Opinion, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

70. The Arab Spring and Democratization in China

Author:
Youngjin Kim
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since the fall of Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” has reasserted the universality of democracy. The question then of whether a “Jasmine Revolution” would occur in China has drawn the attention of foreign and domestic observers as well as raised the concern of the Chinese government. Today, even at the official level, the scope of debate on so called “Western-style” democracy is very limited in China regardless of the political standing of any politician whether conservative or progressive. It would be impossible to imagine in this case that there could be any debate over democracy that would lead to sweeping political reforms in the Chinese Communist Party. While on the other end of the political spectrum, a grass roots movement for democracy is also unlikely to develop. Most of the core figures involved in the democratic movement are either in exile overseas, under heavy restrictions at home, or have lost their momentum as time has passed by. Furthermore, possibly the greatest obstacle to any democratization movement in China is the reluctance of the middle-class. While often considered as a powerful driver for democratization in the rest of the world, it would be difficult to expect them to play the same role in China. Simply, the middle-class is the greatest beneficiaries of state-led economic growth and is unlikely to take part in any rapid political transformation. In this regard, the Chinese middle-class is far more conservative than that of any other country. To what extent then would a “Jasmine Revolution” be possible? There are four possible scenarios on the prospect for democratization in China. First, continued high economic growth is destined to bring about democratization. From the perspective of functionalism, improved standards of living as well as expansion of higher education, media, and an increasing consciousness of human rights will make democratization feasible within a certain period. However, such a viewpoint has some limits in that it blindly applies the experiences of the West and a few countries in East Asia to China without any consideration for its distinct history and social conditions. Second, there is the possibility for democratization due to impending social challenges mounting in China. In other words, if a combination of social problems builds up, the Chinese government would be unable to manage them under in its current repressive way. In this situation, the government would have to introduce democratic measures, such as freedom of speech and direct elections, to a substantial extent. Such a prospect though is unlikely to happen in the near future since high economic growth, increases in consumer expenditure, and the elevation of China’s international status will continue for a while, unless a major economic crisis were to occur in China or in neighboring countries. Even if such a crisis were to occur and the Chinese government implements measures for political reform, a soft-landing through democratization would not be guaranteed. Rather, it is highly probable that the unresolved problems would weaken the political control of the government and lead to political disorder. Third, a kind of flexible authoritarianism may be sustained for a long time. China has secured its legitimacy among the population through rapid economic growth, social welfare, administrative efficiency, and an assertive foreign policy. Simultaneously, it has maintained the stability of its system through strict control, systematization, and mass mobilization. Such a flexible authoritarian government is considered a prime alternative to Western-style democracy by the Chinese leadership and pro-government scholars. From such a viewpoint, it would seem unlikely to expect democratization in China for the time being. Lastly, there is a possibility that China would experience political chaos and division, a scenario that covers neither gradual democratization nor flexible authoritarianism. Authoritarian governments unable to actively promote reforms in the political system often fail to meet the social demands which have accumulated as marketization expands. Continued corruption and incompetence in the government leads to public dissatisfaction and might bring about the collapse of the system as in Eastern Europe. In Eastern Europe, countries had implemented ‘shock therapy’ solutions to fix the problems of the socialist system. However, such rapid changes, in some cases, caused severe chaos rather than bring about a smooth transition to democracy. This hard landing scenario cannot be excluded in regarding the future of democratization in China. From a realistic perspective, even though China cannot avert the flow of democratization in the end, top-down democratization or limited democratic reform led by the Chinese Communist Party is more likely as Chinese civil society has yet to fully mature. Nevertheless, as political reforms would weaken the Chinese Communist Party and increase social instability, top-down democratization is likely to be restricted. And this limited reform might even fail to solve social problems ahead. In this case where there is no alternative social force for the Communist Party and its leadership, the direction for the development of Chinese politics will be unpredictable and could bring about unexpected results. China will therefore go through a difficult transition period due to intricate conflicts among domestic political forces.■
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, and Asia