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62. El impacto de la guerra de Gaza en Oriente Medio: Riesgos geopolíticos y escenarios de futuro
- Author:
- Milagros Álvarez-Verdugo and Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Los ataques terroristas del 7 de octubre de 2023 representan un game changer en tanto en cuanto han puesto en evidencia que la ocupación indefinida de los territorios palestinos representa una amenaza permanente para la seguridad de Israel. La ofensiva militar contra Hamas ha colocado a la Franja de Gaza ante la mayor catástrofe humanitaria del último siglo y ha desestabilizado el conjunto de Oriente Medio. La inestabilidad se ha contagiado también al Líbano, Siria, Irak o Yemen, donde operan diversos proxies de Irán que han hostigado a las tropas estadounidenses desplegadas en la región y han sido objeto de frecuentes ataques por parte de Israel y EEUU. El 7-O representa, también, un test para la política exterior de la Unión Europea en un periodo delicado en el que se esfuerza por alcanzar una cierta ‘autonomía estratégica’ tras la invasión rusa de Ucrania. En este contexto, el principal riesgo sigue siendo que la guerra contra Gaza se contagie al conjunto de Oriente Medio arrastrando a la región a una conflagración de impredecibles consecuencias que también afectaría de diferentes formas a la Unión Europea y España.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
63. Desinformación y censura en conflictos internacionales
- Author:
- Vicente Palacio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El fenómeno de la desinformación no se limita al ámbito de las redes sociales; no es patrimonio únicamente de los regímenes autoritarios y populistas; y no afecta únicamente a la limpieza de los procesos electorales. Si ponemos el foco en el análisis de la información en los conflictos internacionales, debemos tener en cuenta que la desinformación es un fenómeno con varias ramificaciones. El punto de partida de este documento de trabajo es la constatación de que la desinformación, la propaganda y la censura en los conflictos armados representan una amenaza vital para nuestras democracias. Ambas atentan contra el derecho de la ciudadanía a obtener una información veraz, que es la base de las democracias liberales. Para España y para la Unión Europea, que están enfrentando dos grandes conflictos en Ucrania y en Oriente Medio, una información veraz y a tiempo debería ser la base de una democracia sana y también de una política exterior que rinda cuentas a los ciudadanos. Este documento tiene un triple objetivo. Primero, realizar un balance crítico de las respuestas legislativas dadas a nivel europeo frente a la desinformación. Segundo, hacer un repaso de los aspectos más relevantes en ambos conflictos de Ucrania y Gaza. Y tercero, lanzar reflexiones y algunas propuestas para poder combatir mejor la desinformación, la propaganda o la censura en la medida de lo posible, siendo conscientes de que en esa vía podremos alcanzar éxitos parciales, aunque significativ
- Topic:
- Disinformation, Armed Conflict, Censorship, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Gaza
64. Changes in the military deployment of the United States and their implications for Israel’s wars in the region
- Author:
- Eytan Gilboa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- At the start of the Gaza War, President Biden warned Iran and its proxies against launching an all-out attack on Israel and sent aircraft carriers to the region to clarify his intentions. The withdrawal of the Gerald R. Ford carrier from the Mediterranean could be interpreted as a sign of American weakness, diminish deterrence of Iran, and undermine US mediation efforts in Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Deterrence, Regional Security, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
65. Geostrategic Factors, Not Humanitarian Considerations Mold Public Opinion in the West
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Analysis of Google searches shows Israel has greater freedom of action than it may imagine in view of the focus on the potential regional ramifications of the conflict between Israel and Iran over the Palestinians and Gaza.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
66. The Gaza War and Europe: Can the Continent Play a Positive Role in The Middle East?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Europe borders the Middle East, and the continent cannot insulate itself from events in this region. Its options, however, are limited: Europe is hardly a strategic actor with the political will and requisite capabilities to intervene. Moreover, the Middle East is not easily amenable to foreign intervention. Nevertheless, Europe cannot ignore developments that impact its national security and if it concentrates its efforts, it may have a modest input in ensuring that pro-stability forces gain the upper hand.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
67. Why Is It Taking So Long to Destroy Hamas?
- Author:
- Gabi Siboni
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For years, the Gaza Strip has been of secondary importance, with the General Staff focusing primarily on the northern front and Iran. This focus has come at the expense of intelligence gathering, building operational plans, and operational attention to Gaza.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
68. Gaza’s Day After Starts in Ramallah
- Author:
- Francesca Borri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The toing and froing of proposals and counterproposals for a ceasefire in Gaza has been going on for months now. The talks between the Israeli government and Hamas, however, have never really been about numbers: how many hostages to release, which ones, in return for how many and which prisoners, and how many days of truce. The sticking point is another: Hamas calls for the end of the war, and the Israeli government for the end of Hamas. This means that, in reality, the stand-off is all about the “day after”. How can a government be established in Gaza that ensures freedom and development on one side, and security on the other one? And yet, that’s what no one has been working on. While most mediators admit by now that Hamas will not be destroyed, in the ceasefire talks the issue of the “day after” continues not to be factored in.
- Topic:
- Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
69. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Vuk Vuksanović
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans
70. Gaza Needs Humanitarian Assistance Now as Famine Sets In
- Author:
- Alistair D. B. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Dealing with the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and preventing famine requires increasing airdrops as an interim solution and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to open up more aid channels.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Famine, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza