Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip might evolve in the next few weeks into its ‘third stage’, following the aerial bombardment and the massive ground operation undertaken by the IDF into a low-intensity warfare and the establishment of buffer zones with or without a limited Israeli military presence in the enclave.
The way the war is being prosecuted will determine the range of political options in its aftermath. Despite the reluctance of the current Israeli government to engage in any substantial long-term political discussion about the “day after” in terms of any significant blueprints or scenarios, it is imperative to draw a coherent road map regarding the feasible diplomatic options for the immediate and long-term perspectives regarding Israel’s exit from Gaza in the aftermath of the war, including the political resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Taking into consideration the lack of political willingness and/or ability of both Israeli and Palestinian leaderships to advance peace after the war, the dire situation in the Gaza Strip, and the international and domestic political repercussions for several key actors (including the United States, Egypt, and Jordan), this paper examines the possible role and functions that an International Peace Conference (IPC) might fulfil in granting domestic and international legitimacy and the drawing of a coherent road map leading to de-escalation, stabilization, demilitarization, reconstruction, and governance of the Gaza Strip in the immediate term. Moreover, any IPC should also address the larger political issue regarding the ultimate diplomatic resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the form of the fulfillment of UNGA Resolution 181 (1947) and the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian State in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, following UNSC Resolutions 242 (1967), 338 (1973),1515 (2003), 1850 (2008), and 2334 (2016).
The policy paper draws on historical precedents from other conflicts, as well as reflecting on examples and experiences from the Arab-Israeli conflict, first and foremost the relevant and successful example of the Madrid Conference of October 1991. The major insight to be drawn is that an IPC is a necessary but not sufficient political diplomatic ingredient in the road map leading to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in the aftermath of the war in the immediate term, as well as to peace negotiations towards the peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian State alongside Israel.
Topic:
Negotiation, Peace, Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The immense extent of destruction in the Gaza Strip caused by the 2023-2024 Gaza War, requires massive rebuilding. This paper sets a vision of a long-term economic rebuilding plan, which is aimed at ending the humanitarian crisis and creating a functioning and sustainable economy. The rebuilding of the Gazan economy, and the Palestinian economy at large, should be planned and designed as part of an international-regional political and
economic vision of stabilizing, strengthening and improving Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab relations, in the broader context of strengthening stability and prosperity in the Middle East.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Political stability, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Over five months into the Israeli mass atrocities on the Gaza Strip, in response to the horrific 7 October 2023 attacks by Palestinian armed groups, a meaningful and safe humanitarian response is made impossible by the government of Israel.
In this briefing we outline seven fundamental humanitarian access constraints.
Topic:
War Crimes, Atrocities, Palestinian Authority, Humanitarian Response, Blockade, 2023 Gaza War, and Forced Displacement
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The terrible terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent War in Gaza have not only affected the Middle East, but they have also had a disruptive impact on Western democracies. Divisions between those who support Israel’s fight against Islamist terrorism and those who the foreground the sufferings of Palestinian civilians have overlapped with deep affective polarization in many societies. The two positions seem to be irreconcilable and leave little to no room for empathy and dialogue. This report highlights a growing overlap between the perception of international conflicts and domestic polarization over identity issues and values.
Topic:
Democracy, Conflict, Polarization, and 2023 Gaza War
As the Israeli conflict in Gaza marks its third month, Israel has been unable to achieve military decisiveness. The resolution of the hostage issue and the administration of the Strip remain uncertain. Russia and Iran have taken advantage of the situation to strengthen their positions, leading to an expansion in the circle of those opposing Israel.
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, Hostage Crisis, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
The Turkish position on Gaza was weak and lackluster in confronting the Israeli aggression on Gaza perhaps due to the external limits imposed on Turkish power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Constraints
The Houthis have succeeded throughout the period following the initiation of their military support for Gaza in disrupting commercial shipping passing through the Red Sea to countries they consider hostile; and the military operations of the US alliance inadvertently aided them in achieving their objective.
Topic:
Maritime Commerce, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Red Sea
Proposals for Gaza's future post-war vary from direct reoccupation to resistance factions' control, with an intermediary suggestion of local authority under the Palestinian Authority, supported by Arabs. The pivotal factor is the resistance's ability to defeat the occupation.
Topic:
Governance, Reconstruction, Occupation, Hamas, Armed Conflict, Palestinian Authority, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
Indicators point to a heightened risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel leading efforts to restore security in its northern region for resident return and to deter Hezbollah from its borders. However, high war costs and US opposition could limit escalation.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America