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1342. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq
- Author:
- David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
1343. Perceptions of Turkey in the US Congress: A Twitter Data Analysis
- Author:
- Hakan Mehmetcik, Melih Koluk, and Galip Yuksel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The way we interact with individuals, companies, and communities has been altered by our usage of online social media sites and services. Simultaneously, the use of social media as a data source for social scientific inquiries has increased substantially in recent years. This study uses Twitter data analysis to investigate the views of United States (US) Members of Congress on Turkey, and to see if these perceptions reflect some of the trends in US-Turkey relations. Our initial view is that the Twitter conversations among Members of Congress appropriately reveal changes in the course of perceptions vis-a-vis relations between the two countries. With that assumption in mind, we evaluated Twitter data from 2009 to 2021, and analyzed it using statistical methodologies, network analysis, computational text analysis, and topic modeling tools. The findings indicate that Twitter data is a useful proxy for evaluating the perception of Turkey among US Members of Congress.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Social Media, Twitter, and Congress
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
1344. Academic Trends in European Union Studies in Turkey within the Framework of Turkey-EU Relations
- Author:
- Sezgin Mercan, Kıvılcım Romya Bilgin, Hacer Soykan Adaoğlu, and Yelda Ongun
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between academics and policymakers has a complex and multi-layered structure, and there are different views on how this relationship should be. While discussing the political processes in the context of Turkey’s membership, the interactions between academics and policymakers in the relations between Turkey and the EU have the potential to provide solutions in the steps that need to be taken. However, the academic tendency of EU studies in Turkey will be revealed by answering questions such as what subjects are preferred by academics working on the EU in Turkey to study in the knowledge-production process, which subjects they prioritize in EU studies, what the effects of the ups and downs in Turkey-EU relations are on the academy, and how the academy positions itself in the field of EU studies. It is considered that such a study will contribute to further studies on how the academy’s relations with policymakers are and how they should be in studying Turkey-EU relations
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Academia, Knowledge Production, and Policymaking
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
1345. The Gaza Resilience Programme: ICRC’s urban approach in practice
- Author:
- Samir Hafiz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- Decades of Israeli–Palestinian hostilities, an occupation and internal political divisions have fuelled a complex protracted crisis in the occupied Palestinian Territories (oPT). With challenges in access to essential services (health care, education, energy and water supply, sanitation), employment opportunities, free movement and trade, almost half of the 5.2 million people living in oPT are in need of humanitarian assistance ( OCHA , 2020; European Commission, 2021). While half of the world’s population now lives in urban environments (UN DESA, 2019), in Palestine this figure rises to 76% (World Bank, 2021). This firmly grounds the humanitarian needs of the Palestinian people in an urban context. The case study explores the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Gaza Resilience Programme (GRP), an initiative that aims to build the resilience of systems and communities in Gaza. It highlights how the project has applied context appropriate approaches to the Gaza context and identifies the enabling factors and challenges in these approaches. Section 8 presents key takeaways from the case study.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Urban, Resilience, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
1346. Clausewitz’s Friction in War and the United States invasion of Iraq
- Author:
- Dele Jemirade
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This article aims to analyze the relevance of Carl von Clausewitz’s theory on Friction in War to the United States invasion of Iraq. It is argued here that the theory of friction of war by Clausewitz is still very relevant in contemporary warfare. Despite that contemporary warfare is characterized by advanced technology, computers, artificial intelligence, and target precision weaponry, there are so many unpredictable things and beyond the control of soldiers on the battlefield, commanding generals, and civilians who are responsible for the planning and its execution. These unpredictable events that can change the outcome of the war are what Clausewitz refers to as the friction in war. In this article, two examples of friction of war are used to analyze the relevance of this theory. These examples are first, the insurgency in Iraq after the removal of President Saddam Hussein, and the declaration of the end of major hostilities by president George W. Bush and secondly, the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. These two examples are used because they affected considerably the war plans of the United States in Iraq and therefore suffice as examples of friction of war.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, War, Artificial Intelligence, Iraq War, and Carl von Clausewitz
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
1347. Implementing National Security: The IDF’s Principles for Planning the Israeli Civilian Industry after the Establishment of the State of Israel
- Author:
- Yoram Fried
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Most works on national security in democratic states highlight the role of the civilian government or its appointed bodies in defining national security principles. Hence, one of the goals of national security planners is to create guidelines for decision-makers and convince them of their necessity and importance in deterring expected threat. Israel's War of Independence ended with a ceasefire and it was clear to the political and military leadership that a second round of fighting with the Arab countries was only a matter of time and that vital industrial and infrastructure sites would be targeted by enemy attacks during wartime. The IDF leadership quickly realized that the military planning bodies were the sole entities to fully comprehend the country's security needs and therefore should be the only ones authorized to dictate national security requirements. As such, it should also oversee the civilian industrial planning.
- Topic:
- National Security, Armed Forces, Industry, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
1348. Food Insecurity and its Discontents in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Salma Al-Shami
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Food insecurity plagues majorities of citizens in six out of 10 countries surveyed as part of Arab Barometer’s seventh wave (2021-2022). Majorities from 53 percent in Libya to 68 percent in Egypt report that they ran out of food before they had money to buy more. And in nine out of 10 countries, more than half of all citizens express concern about running out of food before being able to get more. These findings reiterate a long-standing and often observed quagmire in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): the high proportion of food insecure citizens in middle income countries with otherwise medium or high levels of human development is staggering. Beyond affirming this quagmire, Arab Barometer’s newest data show that looking at region through the lens of food insecurity and its web of discontents emphasizes seven key challenges facing MENA: “Democracy fatigue” is highest among the food insecure, though they still prefer democracy to its alternatives. Gender gaps in reports of food insecurity reiterate the consequences of extreme gender imbalances in labor force participation. Urban-rural cleavages in food insecurity are a reminder that food scarcity can be higher in rural areas on account of decreased access to credit, reliance on import substitution strategies, shrinking agricultural lands, and climate change. Despite the documented effects of the latter on food availability, food insecure citizens are less likely to want government intervention to address climate challenges. Differences between food secure and insecure citizens on evaluations of the economy are more muted than expected, perhaps because broadly defined economic challenges loom heavily on all. Still, those suffering from food insecurity express a higher desire to emigrate. And finally, food insecurity has devastating effects on present and future outlooks, with food insecure citizens—particularly youth—less likely to say both that their lives are better than their parents’ and their children’s lives will be better than their own. Poor economic conditions broadly defined are not a new phenomenon in MENA. The difficulties posed by intra-regional variation and prevalence of decade(s)- old conflicts notwithstanding, attempts to give regional snapshots of economic health in the region point to a similar conclusion: progress toward alleviating poverty and hunger and addressing inequality is at best stalled. The 2022 global poverty update from the World Bank reports that the MENA region is the only one where the extreme poverty rate has increased between 2010 and 2020, in fact doubling between 2015 and 2018. A World Inequality Lab study1 (summarized here) analyzing data between 1990 and 2016 named the Middle East as the most unequal one in the world with respect to income: the bottom 50 percent of income earners controlled just 10 percent of total regional income.
- Topic:
- Environment, Gender Issues, Governance, Food Security, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
1349. Racial Discrimination and Anti-Blackness in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Nisrine Hilizah
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- The issue of race and race relations has recently gained increased salience in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Increased levels of migration to and through a number of MENA countries and the historic marginalization of Black communities in the region have brought some of these issues to the forefront. However, there has been scant attention to the views of publics across the region toward such issues. Arab Barometer‘s Seventh Wave is the first survey to systematically examine the degree to which citizens across MENA perceive racial discrimination and anti-Black discrimination to be a problem in their countries. The results suggest that citizens in surveyed countries understand and view racial discrimination differently from anti-Black discrimination. In most countries surveyed, majorities affirm that racial discrimination is a serious problem. Yet, only a minority of citizens report that discrimination against Black individuals is a problem to a great or medium extent in all but two countries. Furthermore, only in Tunisia is there a majority who think both racial discrimination and discrimination against Black individuals is a problem. This raises questions for further research on how MENA citizens understand “race” and on the extent to which there is awareness of anti-Black discrimination in their countries.
- Topic:
- Migration, Public Opinion, Discrimination, Racism, and Anti-Blackness
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
1350. Climate Change and the Environment in the Middle East and North Africa 2021-2022
- Author:
- Mohamed Abufalgha
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are well-aware of the environmental challenges facing their countries and the region at large. Among a number of environmental issues, access to clean water stands out as the most important challenge troubling pluralities in all countries surveyed in Arab Barometers Seventh Wave, followed by waste management and air quality. MENA citizens differ, however, in their perceptions of the most pressing water-related issues facing their communities. In Egypt, Iraq, Tunisia, Sudan, and Jordan, at least half cite pollution of drinking water as the main water issue while pluralities do the same in Lebanon and Palestine. In Kuwait and Libya, pollution of waterways is a more important issue while Mauritanians and Algerians voice more concern regarding lack of water resources than other water issues. The majorities of people in all countries surveyed hold each other and their governments responsible for contributing to the environmental challenges facing the region. This view transcends all demographic differences in most countries as people share the view despite differences in age, education, income, and gender. In response to climate change, at least pluralities want their governments to do more in all countries surveyed. Only small minorities in all countries say they want their governments to do less on this front. Support for more government involvement in addressing climate change tends to be more pronounced among urbanites and those whose income covers their expenses in most countries. When compared to other issues, like food insecurity, subsidies, or education, however, the environment ranks lowest in the list of priorities for government spending as well as preference for foreign aid.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa