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3941. India-Pakistan Trade: Creating Constituencies for Peace

Author:
Kavita Sangani
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan is extraordinarily low—less than 1 percent of their global trade. Their volatile political relationship has overwhelmed attempts to encourage trade between the two countries, and has also impacted economic integration in the South Asian region as a whole. There are both political and economic obstacles to expanding trade between the two countries. Greater economic co-operation could, however, provide mutual economic benefits, such as lower prices for consumers, much-needed revenue for the governments, and cost-effective gas import to India via Pakistan. Perhaps most importantly, it could generate new linkages between the two business communities, thereby nurturing constituencies for peace in the region.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, and India

3942. The Istanbul Bombs: Challenging The Turkish Model?

Author:
Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The four massive truck bombs which targeted two synagogues on November 15, and just five days later, the British Consulate and a British-based bank in Istanbul, claimed fifty five Turkish and foreign victims – including the British Consul General - and wounded hundreds more, while causing millions of dollars of material damage. Beyond their immediate impact, the terrorist attacks caused incalculable collateral damage to the sense of security of the Turkish people by undermining the prevailing domestic tranquility. At an even wider level, the terrorists responsible for the outrages, who demonstrated once again that they would not draw the line at killing fellow Moslems in the misguided pursuit of their goals, also dragged Turkey into the frontline of their war.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3943. Turkey, The United States And Iraq: Continuing Differences

Author:
Baris Omali
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On October 7, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), dominated by the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) approved a resolution authorizing the government to send Turkish troops to Iraq. After the 358 to 183 vote, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented that Turkey had “come to the decision that it can't totally fulfill its duty as a neighbor in this big transformation process of Iraq with only political, humanitarian and economic support, without military contributions.” Although over 60 percent of the Turkish public were opposed to deployment, Erdogan committed his personal prestige and unchallenged authority over JDP parliamentarians to ensure a positive vote in contrast to the parliamentary reverse on March 1.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

3944. Reforming for Europe

Author:
Seda Ciftci
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As Ankara struggled through its typically hot summer, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) was hard at work. The Justice and Development Party (JDP) government, which has 366 seats in the 550-member TGNA, pushed through major legislative packages tied to European Union (EU) requirements for eventual Turkish membership just before its two-month legislative break on August 1. Parallel to its efforts related to its declared primary objective of EU membership, the government also managed to successfully conclude the fifth IMF review, leading to the release of a $500 million tranche and the easing of the debt repayment schedule by the IMF, while endeavoring to repair the crucial relationship with the US.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

3945. Seeking Redefinition: U.S.-Turkish Relations After Iraq

Author:
Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It has been three months since the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) failed to muster the appropriate number of votes to allow the United States to open a northern front through Turkey against Iraq. In retrospect it is clear that the March 1 vote reflected the public opposition to the imminent conflict, the perceptible ambivalence of the powerful military establishment and its reluctance to provide an unambiguous recommendation - in particular at the National Security Council (NSC) meeting one day before the vote - and the attitude of President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It also reflected the inability of the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to overcome its deep misgivings about the war to give a sufficiently clear lead.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

3946. Cyprus: Turkey's Other Difficult Decision

Author:
Seda Ciftci
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Overshadowed by the surprising failure on March 1 of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) to permit the deployment of American forces to open a northern front through Turkey in the likely war with Iraq, and the resulting strains in the US-Turkish relationship, the Cyprus issue has also reached a diplomatic climax. On March 4-5, the Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktas, who has been under increasing pressure from United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, came to Ankara seeking support. Proclaiming himself satisfied with his talks with Turkish leaders, Denktas now heads into a crucial meeting at The Hague on March 10 with Annan and newly elected Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos. The governing Justice and Development Party (JDP), which has been promoting a settlement of the Cyprus problem, now faces the prospect of the collapse of the UN-sponsored efforts as well as additional complications in Turkey's relations with the European Union (EU). However, despite JDP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan's complaints about the difficulties of dealing with the Iraq and Cyprus issues at the same time, he cannot avoid the urgent decisions that will redefine Turkish foreign policy.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
America, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

3947. Toward a European Strategy for Iraq

Author:
Giacomo Luciani and Felix Neugart
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Iraq crisis has been a disaster for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union (EU). Member countries are very visibly split in their position towards the war against the regime in Baghdad. EU institutions have been unable to agree on more than the unconditional implementation of the relevant United Nations resolutions leaving the door open for widely diverging interpretations. The challenge of the Iraq crisis does not bode well for the future of a cohesive European Foreign Policy, and the CFSP requires a fresh approach.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations

3948. Understanding Balkan Organized Crime: A Key to Success in Iraq?

Author:
Mark Edmond Clark
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
In your estimation, what would it take to get organized crime in Southeastern Europe under control? Mark Clark: A successful fight against organized crime typically would require the successful change of culture in the society in which it exists. Organized crime groups maintain their control by creating and maintaining an environment of fear within the societies that they operate. Practically as a prerequisite, they must possess the capacity to kill and commit other acts of extreme violence against friend and foe alike. To that extent, history would show that few in any society have had the strength to stand up against them. However, organized crime also survives often because the society in which it exists, accepts it. In the Balkans, peoples of the different ethnic groups have typically lived in rural communities, based on agrarian economies, and for the most part have been isolated and provincial, with little interest in making dramatic transformations regarding the place of organized crime. In the cosmopolitan cities and areas of almost each state, organized crime has also developed real influence. Perhaps a cause for that might be the successive migrations to the cities and towns, thereby assuring that there would always be segments of the population that accepted organized crime and would welcome the goods and services criminal groups could provide.
Topic:
Security, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
Middle East

3949. Love Us Not, Just Follow Us

Author:
Ehsan Ahrari
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The lone superpower has become the sole recipient of world criticism as well as praise and envy. According to a recent survey issued by the Pew Research Center, “Images of the United States have been tarnished in all types of nations: among longtime NATO allies, in developing countries, in Eastern Europe, and, most dramatically in Muslim societies.” That is the price of excellence. If others cannot be as good as you, the least they can do is admire and emulate you. The United States is criticized, and even hated in some regions, but the overriding variable is the global feeling of envy toward it. The survey underscores that the leadership of the superpower is an established phenomenon, at least for now, while its negative image continues to linger.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

3950. Demand, Stockpiles, and Social Controls: Small Arms in Yemen

Author:
Derek B. Miller
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen