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2821. PolicyWatch #1373: Bush's Last Middle East Trip Could Be More Than Just Farewells

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Pollock
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Bush returns to the Middle East this week for the second time in 2008. Initially planned to mark Israel's sixtieth anniversary, his itinerary has expanded to include meetings with top officials from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. Except for a trip to Riyadh, these meetings will be held at a World Economic Forum conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt. This lineup prompted National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to say the trip has "both symbolism and substance" and, considering the urgency of the issues, something of substance may actually emerge.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan

2822. PolicyWatch #1372: Showdown between Hizballah and Beirut

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, the democratically elected, pro-Western Lebanese government took the bold and unprecedented decision to confront Hizballah. Since its election in 2005, the government had avoided direct conflict with the well-armed Shiite militant political party, but several of the organization's activities -- including apparent preparations for yet another war with Israel -- led the government to provoke a showdown. In response to a May 8 cabinet statement that focused on Hizballah's "attack on the sovereignty of the state," the Shiite organization took to the streets. In the ensuing violence -- the most intense since Lebanon's civil war -- Hizballah began occupying parts of Beirut, leaving the future of Lebanon in doubt.
Topic:
Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Beirut

2823. PolicyWatch #1370: Special Forum Report: Assessing the Annapolis Process

Author:
Zalman Shoval and Aaron David Miller
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite having been practically stillborn, the Annapolis peace process is not dead and has recently shown artificially induced signs of life. It has been continually retooled in order to maintain a chance of producing something by the end of President Bush's term.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

2824. PolicyWatch #1369: Turkey's Headscarf Legislation: The Negative Impact on EU Accession

Author:
Antonia Ruiz Jimenez
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In February 2008, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) passed two constitutional amendments that intend to lift the ban on Islamic headscarves on college campuses. Although it is still unclear how the legislation will be implemented, the new laws are likely to have a negative impact on how the European Union sees Turkey. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan states that the amendments protect individual and religious freedom -- two rights that are guaranteed under the EU's common legislative body. However, as the controversy surrounding the issue continues, the legal ambiguity created by the case could alienate Europe, making Turkey's EU accession bid even more difficult.
Topic:
Civil Society
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2825. PolicyWatch #1368: Human Rights and the Basis for EU Sanctions against Iran

Author:
Emanuele Ottolenghi
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When the UN Security Council approved the third round of sanctions against Iran by adopting Resolution 1803 in March 2008, U.S. policymakers anticipated that the European Union would follow past practice and enact additional punitive measures. Almost two months later, however, Europeans are still at loggerheads on how best to implement the resolution, with several countries -- mostly the ones with strong commercial interests in Iran -- still adamant that the EU should not go beyond the text of the resolution. The EU could resolve this internal dispute by refocusing its sanctions debate on Iran's human rights record, an issue on which it is often easier to build consensus in Europe.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

2826. PolicyWatch #1367: Tackling Turkey's Image Problem in the European Union

Author:
Antonia Ruiz Jimenez
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In February 2007, the Austrian government became the latest member of the European Union to propose a referendum on Turkish accession, citing "differences in values and standards" between Turkey and the EU. Recent data, however, reveals that these cultural differences are not so pronounced. And at a time when Turkey's EU accession faces challenges, highlighting shared Turkish and European values could greatly enhance the prospect for Turkey's membership.
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Austria

2827. PolicyWatch #1364: Iranian Parliamentary Elections and Ahmadinezhad's Discontents

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2828. PolicyWatch #1361: Who Won the Battle for Basra?

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The recent military offensive in Basra was the first sizeable operation in which Iraqi government forces took the initiative to pursue armed groups in one of the country's most politically charged regions. Although the operation was a military success, its political aftermath will be crucial for the survival of both Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government and Muqtada al-Sadr's militia.
Topic:
Government and War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2829. PolicyWatch #1360: The Damascus Arab Summit: Arab Divisions Ensure Modest Achievements

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This weekend, the much-anticipated annual Arab Summit will convene in Damascus. The run-up to the twentieth summit -- the first ever held in Damascus -- has been overshadowed by the controversy surrounding Syria's role in undermining Lebanon's presidential elections. And Damascus has exacerbated regional concerns by inviting Iran to attend the summit. As a result of these developments, several Arab states have downgraded their planned level of representation at the meeting, dashing for now Syria's hopes of improving its tarnished image in the Arab world. Given these tensions, it is likely that this summit -- like so many of its predecessors -- will fail to make good on its ambitious agenda.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

2830. PolicyWatch #1358: Kuwait's New Political Crisis: Can Democracy Trump Sectarianism?

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 19, Kuwaiti emir Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah dissolved the country's parliament and called for new elections to be held on May 17. This drastic step reflects two distinct sets of tensions, both of which Kuwait has overcome in the past: tensions between the executive branch and parliament, and tensions between fundamentalists from the Sunni majority and the Shiite minority. The conjunction of these divisions is unusual and poses a serious political test for this small but strategically vital state -- a nation that borders Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, pumps more oil than Iraq, and quietly hosts about 70,000 U.S. troops at any given moment. The political troubles have become all the more sensitive because many Kuwaitis suspect Iran of fomenting new sectarian strife within their borders.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East