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1931. Shale Oil and Gas and the Middle East

Author:
Odeh Aburdene
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
It is in the interest of the world community to increase all energy resources—oil, gas, coal, solar, green, and nuclear. There are 7 billion people on this planet today. By 2100 that number will rise to 10 billion people. We can only meet their needs by maximizing energy production and using it in the most efficient means available.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Biofuels
Political Geography:
Middle East

1932. A Strategy for US Engagement in the Middle East: Contain Threats, Embrace Dignity

Author:
Michele Dunne and Barry Pavel
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In President Barack Obama's first term, his administration withdrew US forces from Iraq, ratcheted up pressure to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, began the adjustment to relations with post-authoritarian governments in Arab countries including Egypt, struggled with how best to handle an increasingly bloody rebellion in Syria, and attempted to restart diplomacy on the Israeli/Palestinian problem. At the beginning of his second term, US interests are at significant risk as the region continues to undergo profound changes, and Arab and European allies are asking for greater US engagement. The region also presents the United States with unanticipated opportunities, such as the development of Arab democracies and a reduction in Iranian influence. The challenge facing the United States is how to lead without dominating, and how to protect and promote US interests without absolving other actors of responsibility. Thus, the task for this administration is to develop a strategy: to match the president's positive rhetoric with meaningful follow-up in terms of diplomacy, assistance, and security cooperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and North America

1933. Egypt's Litigious Transition: Judicial Intervention and the Muddied Road to Democracy

Author:
Mahmoud Hamad
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Egypt's judiciary has played a central role in the country's transition since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. The political forces that led the uprising agreed on almost nothing except their profound rejection of dictatorship, corruption, and injustice. The military generals who took over from Mubarak lacked the imagination or the will to set out a clear roadmap to democracy. Ultimately, it fell to the judiciary to shape many aspects of the transition. In the legally murky climate of the past two years, judges drew fire from forces across the political spectrum, issuing decisions affecting the public perception of their objectivity.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

1934. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1935. US-Iran Cultural Engagement: A Cost Effective Boon to US National Security

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Ramin Asgard
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This issue brief of the Atlantic Council's Iran Task Force outlines the 179-year history of US contacts with Iran, which have experienced periods of breakdown but currently are continuing at a low level despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties. It also recommends actions to advance these exchanges as a national security imperative—especially as the nuclear dispute with the Iranian government could well persist.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East and North America

1936. Beyond Spillover: Syria's Role in Lebanon's Drift Toward Political Violence

Author:
Faysal Itani and Sarah Grebowkski
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
To describe the increase in violence and instability in Lebanon since the civil war in Syria began as simply a spillover is misleading. it risks casting Lebanon as a victim to negative externalities divorced from its own political dysfunction. in truth, Lebanon's troubles long preceded the war in Syria, and the conflict's more complex and pernicious effect on Lebanon has been the exposure and deepening of pre-existing rifts among Lebanese.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

1937. Syria's War Threatens Lebanon's Fragile Economy

Author:
Faysal Itani
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Syrian civil war is accelerating Lebanon's political and institutional decline and poses a serious long-term threat to its economy. Lebanon has largely been spared the political upheavals of the Arab Spring, its fractious political system is intact, and the weakness of its central government means there is no authoritarian order to revolt against. However, Lebanon's own political dysfunction, the regional powers' stakes in Lebanese politics, and their anxieties over the geopolitical challenges that the Arab uprisings pose magnify the economic dangers of Syria's disintegration.
Topic:
Economics and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

1938. Iran: How a Third Tier Cyber Power Can Still Threaten the United States

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Jason Healey
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
When most people think of the "military option" against Iran, they imagine a US attack that takes out Iran's most important known nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan. They expect Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, sending missiles into Israel, and/or supporting terrorist attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America

1939. Jordan's Youth: Avenues for Activism

Author:
Danya Greenfield
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
While Jordanians are focused on the conflict raging in neighboring Syria and the prospect of violence spilling over onto Jordanian soil, below the surface the same kind of political, economic, and social grievances that launched a wave of uprisings in the Arab world are present and intensifying in Jordan with each passing day. As calls for political change swept through Cairo, Tunis, Tripoli, and Sanaa in the spring of 2011, periodic protests emerged throughout Jordan as well, where a diverse mix of people came out in calls for greater freedoms and economic opportunity. Many of the anti-government demonstrations were led by youth, representing a broad spectrum from conservative East Bank tribes to the urban Palestinian-Jordanian elite, and the normally politically apathetic youth population seemed engaged in unprecedented ways. Young Jordanians struggle to land decent jobs, find affordable housing, and save enough money to get married; with 55 percent of the population under the age of twenty-five, and a 26 percent unemployment rate among males between fifteen and twenty-five years old, there is reason to be cognizant about youth discontent emerging in unexpected or critical moments of pressure.
Topic:
Economics, Youth Culture, Social Movement, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

1940. The Israeli Experience in Missile Defense: Lessons for NATO

Author:
Guillaume Lasconjarias and Jean-loup Samaan
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In recent years, the issue of missile defense has become one of the most prominent features of Israel's military debate. During Operation Pillar of Defense in the Gaza Strip on November 2012, air defense systems such as Iron Dome proved crucial against rockets targeting Israeli territory. As a result, they have attracted increasing political attention. Against this backdrop, international media and policy circles now focus on Israel as the most advanced case to test the validity of missile defense. NATO, in particular, has dedicated a lot of attention to the Israeli experience in missile defense and the lessons to be drawn from it.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel