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1811. THE COMING CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Author:
Barry Rubin
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Middle East Review of International Affairs
Institution:
Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center
Abstract:
The gap between dominant Western perceptions of the Middle East and the region's reality is dangerously wide. While the “Arab Spring” is celebrated as an advance for moderation and democracy, in fact the advance is going to revolutionary Islamists. Developments in Turkey and Egypt especially threaten to plunge the Middle East back into an era of conflict, instability, and the worst threats to Western interests in decades.
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

1812. THE SOUTH CAUCASUS REPUBLICS AND RUSSIA'S GROWING INFLUENCE: BALANCING ON A TIGHTROPE

Author:
Michael B. Bishku
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Middle East Review of International Affairs
Institution:
Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center
Abstract:
Located at the crossroads of Russia, the rest of Europe, and the Middle East, the South Caucasus republics' political and economic security has depended on the balancing of relations with both their regional neighbors and with the major powers. Matters of territorial integrity, historical memory, ethnic brethren residing in foreign countries, and trade routes have all become important factors in the development of foreign policy. This paper will examine the relations between the South Caucasus republics and Russia and how the former countries have attempted to decrease Russian influence through ties with other major powers.
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Caucasus, and Middle East

1813. The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon. Local and Regional Rationales for Hezbollah's Involvement in Syria

Author:
Charles-Brian Biondi
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the conflict, Syria has been the playground for several actors, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran, defending their domestic interests or fighting for regional influence. The conflict entered a new phase in June 2013 with the direct involvement of Hezbollah, which sent troops to help al-Assad's regime fighting the armed insurrection. This event has had significant repercussions not only for the Syrian conflict itself but also for Lebanon. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the reasons that have led Hezbollah to engage openly in the Syrian conflict and what the consequences of such a decision could be, both for the country's and the party's future. The author argues that the party's involvement in the conflict is primarily a primordial necessity as the current Syrian regime is one of Hezbollah's strongest allies in the region without being a vital one. Thus the loss of the Syrian regime has the potential to pose new difficulties to the movement but would not necessarily imply its destruction.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Intelligence, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

1814. Survey on the livelihoods of Syrian refugees in Lebanon

Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The plight of Syrians living as refugees in neighbouring countries has been documented on many levels. Accurately assessing their needs is vital to ensure that the aid essential for their survival is provided. However, the majority of studies have focused on primary needs, with most evaluations employing rapid techniques of data gathering and analysis, which rely on second-hand information and formal records. Oxfam commissioned the Beirut Research and Innovation Center (BRIC) to carry out a wide survey investigating in detail refugees' perceptions of both their current situation and their future prospects. The survey's aim is to paint a bigger picture of the long-term conditions and needs of Syrian refugees living in Lebanon.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Health, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1815. Moment of Truth: Call to action ahead of Syria peace talks, and beyond

Author:
Daniel Gorevan
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The world was rightly appalled by the use of chemical weapons in Damascus on 21 August 2013. If the recent diplomatic initiatives by the USA and Russia mean that these weapons are never again used, it would be a great achievement. But it won't be enough.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crime, Human Rights, International Law, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Geneva, Russia, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1816. Jihadi Discourse in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Author:
Nelly Lahoud
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report analyzes jihadi discourse in the wake of the "Arab Spring" to address two related questions: (1) why have global jihadi leaders been struggling to advance a coherent and effective response to the events of the Arab Spring, and (2) why, despite strong rhetoric of militancy, have we witnessed little action on the part of new jihadi groups that have emerged in countries that underwent regime change (i.e., Tunisia, Egypt and Libya) as a result of the Arab Spring? To answer these questions, this study focuses on original Arabic sources in the form of public statements released by global jihadi leaders in response to the Arab Spring and by new groups projecting a jihadi worldview that have emerged in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. It reveals that the factors that are causing the current ideological incoherence of jihadism are the same factors that had once served as the cornerstone of its plausibility in the eyes of its adherents.
Topic:
Political Violence, Diplomacy, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

1817. Iraq's Tangled Foreign Interests and Relations

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A decade after Saddam Hussein's fall, Iraq still lacks a centralized foreign policy that advances its national interests. Internal divisions, such as those between the Shia-dominated regime in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, have given rise to alternative power centers with their own policy priorities. Iraqi foreign policy will remain disjointed and incoherent until Baghdad resolves the issues polarizing the country.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Oil, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1818. Disarming Syria: The Chemical Weapons Challenge

Author:
Trevor Findlay
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Disarmament during armed conflict: unprecedented Speed, efficiency and effectiveness of international institutions: breathtaking. The diplomatic choreography involved: impressive Complexity and interwoven nature of the arrangements; astounding.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1819. New Report Plans Ahead for a Postconflict Syria:Lessons from Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen

Author:
Christina Bennett
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Though the violent conflict in Syria shows few signs of abating and scenarios for any post conflict solution are numerous and vague, renewed interest in peace talks presents an important opportunity to discuss the parameters of peace and reconstruction in Syria.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

1820. Iran and the Arab Spring: Between Expectations and Disillusion

Author:
Henner Fürtig
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The 1979 Iranian Revolution undoubtedly belongs to the "great" revolutions of modern times – all of which were characterized by universalistic efforts and the claim to have set new social, political and cultural norms with global validity. In this sense, the Iranian revolutionaries felt the obligation to actively reintroduce Islam as a revelation for the whole world, not only for Muslims. Yet, they soon became aware that most Muslims viewed their export strategy as either an attempt to enforce Shiism, or – even worse – to conceal mere national megalomania. Therefore, the current leadership argues that the revolution should no longer be exported actively, but that Iran should serve as an example. Consequently, Supreme Leader Khamenei called the events of the Arab Spring a "natural enlargement of Iran's Islamic revolution of 1979" and credited his country for being the catalyst of this "Islamic awakening." The present article will analyze selected regional reactions to the Islamic awakening concept, which did not altogether meet Iranian expectations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Islam, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East