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1141. General Principles to Guide U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
James F. Jeffrey and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given the unprecedented turmoil and uncertainty afflicting the Middle East, the new administration will need to devote particular care and urgency to understanding the essence of America's interests in the region, and applying clear principles in pursuing them. This is the advice offered by two U.S. diplomats with a distinguished record of defending those interests under various administrations. As Trump and his team take office, they face a regional state system that is under assault by proxy wars that reflect geopolitical rivalries and conflicts over basic identity. Rarely has it been more important for a new administration to articulate clear goals and principles, and Ambassadors James Jeffrey and Dennis Ross outline both in this transition paper. With 30 percent of the world's hydrocarbons still flowing from the Middle East, safeguarding that supply remains a critical U.S. national security interest, along with preventing nuclear proliferation, countering terrorism, and preserving stability. In their view, the best way to pursue these interests is to emphasize a coherent set of guiding principles, namely:
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

1142. Yet Another War in Shingal: The Sword of Damocles

Author:
Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
On 3 March, clashes erupted between the PKK-linked forces and the KDP’s Rojava Peshmerga near Khanasor in the district of Shingal. These events now more than ever highlight the need for a negotiated compromise between the KRG and the PKK; and for the international community to actively intervene.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Middle East

1143. Iraq and Libya: common challenges for the years ahead

Author:
Irene Costantini
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Iraq and Libya are facing similar challenges: addressing the hurdles of socio-economic recovery in areas liberated from the Islamic State (IS); facing a fiscal crisis in the midst of continuous political tensions; and striking a power balance between central and local authorities, serving the interests of the people.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and ISIS
Political Geography:
Middle East

1144. Normalisation in Ankara-Baghdad Relations: A New Era?

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Iraqi and Turkish leadership have restored direct contact, thus providing an opportunity for dialogue. However, the extent to which this can lead to a sustainable normalisation process and furthermore to a deepening of their relationship is highly questionable. This policy brief argues that the main problem lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions. Instead, it is ad hoc developments external to their bilateral relationship that have a positive effect for the time being, such as the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, and subsequently a concerted attempt between Russia, Turkey and Iran to stabilise the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

1145. President Trump and the Middle East: Views from Israel

Author:
The Washington Institute for East Policy
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The conflict in Syria, the war on ISIS, Israeli settlements, relocating the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Iranian regional influence -- all contentious issues at the top of the U.S. foreign policy agenda in the Middle East. During this January 30 policy forum, Israeli Regional Cooperation Minister Tzachi Hanegbi -- a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- and former Israeli ambassador to the United States Itamar Rabinovich offer their perspectives on these challenges and others confronting President Trump in the region. Tzachi Hanegbi has just been named Israel's cabinet minister for regional cooperation. A close confidant of Prime Minister Netanyahu, he has held a variety of cabinet portfolios in the past, and served most recently as chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Itamar Rabinovich is a former Israeli ambassador to Washington and founding president of the Israel Institute. A renowned expert on Syria, he once headed Israeli peace talks with Damascus. He has also served as president of Tel Aviv University, where he is now a professor emeritus of Middle Eastern history. David Makovsky is the Institute's Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and Director of its Project on the Middle East Peace Process, and the Irwin Levy Family Program on the U.S.-Israel Strategic Relationship.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

1146. Transitional Justice in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Center for International and Regional Studies
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies: CIRS
Abstract:
Following the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, many had high hopes not only for democratization but also for transitional justice to address the myriad abuses that had taken place in the region, both during the uprisings and for decades prior to them. Despite these hopes, most of the transitions in the region have stalled, along with the possibility of transitional justice. This volume is the first to look at this process and brings together leading experts in the fields of human rights and transitional justice, and in the history, politics and justice systems of countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Bahrain and Morocco. While these countries have diverse histories, political institutions, and experiences with accountability, most have experienced non-transition, stalled transition, or political manipulation of transitional justice measures, highlighting the limits of such mechanisms. These studies should inform reflection not only on the role of transitional justice in the region, but also on challenges to its operation more generally.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Law, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

1147. After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya

Author:
Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
ISIS has suffered significant setbacks in both Iraq and Libya with the battles for Mosul and Sirte representing potential turning-points. • Without a clear political strategy to guide post- ISIS efforts, these military gains could quickly be lost. Both countries could again become breeding grounds for conflict and extremism, exacerbating European security and migration challenges. This risk is especially high for Iraq given the conflict in neighbouring Syria. • The new US administration is likely to invest less energy than its predecessors in strengthening political orders which provide stability. European states must step up their own efforts
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

1148. The Kurds in a Volatile Middle East

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The Kurds challenge the self-perceptions of the nation-states in which they reside: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq; and they have played a crucial role in combatting Islamic State. This study analyzes the rivalry and interdependence among the four parts of Kurdistan as well as the dynamics of their relations with regional countries and the international community. With the entire region in a state of flux, will the Kurds fulfill their dream for a state or autonomous existence of their own?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Self Determination, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East

1149. Qatar: The Limits of Nouveau Riche Diplomacy

Author:
Gil Feiler and Hayim Zeev
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Under the leadership of Sheikh Hamad al-Thani (1995-2013), Qatar established itself as a regional mini superpower. It launched and subsidized the global media giant Al Jazeera, poured billions into its unrivalled liquefied natural gas infrastructure, made a successful bid for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and diversified its economy through international acquisitions by its Qatari Investment Authority. This newfound wealth emboldened the emirate to attempt to broaden its diplomatic profile and extend its influence. And it is in this sphere that its maverick foreign policy, which at times spanned the world’s most fraught ideological lines, has led to increased tensions with its immediate neighbors and some unequivocal diplomatic disasters.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East

1150. Khan Sheikhoun, Shayrat Air Base, and What Next?

Author:
Adam Garfinkle
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
By now the world knows that U.S. military forces for the first time since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011 have attacked regime targets. Plenty of the basic facts are known about what transpired about 18 hours ago, but a few important ones are not—at least not in the public domain. For example, we have only a very general Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) report. This matters because Tomahawk cruise missiles are very accurate if “lite” weapons. Knowing what the four dozen or so missiles hit and missed, deliberately and otherwise, could tell us a lot about why the President, presumably with Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ guidance and concurrence, chose the lesser of three options presented at what has been described as a meeting of considerable length. That, in turn, could tell us if the intention ultimately is to coerce the Russians into coercing the Syrians to stop doing monstrous things to their own people, and possibly coercing them to support a compromise political settlement to the war; or if it’s just an Eff-You gesture designed only to relieve the sudden pressure of moral unction that unexpectedly came upon our new Commander-in Chief—who seemed to lurch from coldblooded Randian to “Godtalk” invoker of the American Civil Religion in the wink of an eye. In other words, knowing more about the target set would tell us whether there is any political strategy attached to the use of force, or not. Probably not.
Topic:
International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, and Syria