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1041. Al-Qaeda versus ISIS: Competing Jihadist Brands in the Middle East

Author:
Charles Lister
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The 2011 political unrest in the Middle East provided al-Qaeda and ISIS with an unprecedented opportunity for growth. While both groups share the goal of establishing an Islamic Caliphate, they approached the goal with different strategies and to differing degrees of success. Al-Qaeda responded to the instability by attempting to soften its image. The group specifically instructed its affiliates to situate themselves in local conflicts and to slow down the implementation of Sharia law. ISIS, on the other hand, focused on seizing territory and violently disrupting state-building efforts. By the close of 2017, al- Qaeda’s rebranding has successfully allowed the group to expand its footprint in a number of Middle Eastern civil wars at the cost of its central authority. ISIS, meanwhile, has lost most of its territory but retains the ideological strength to inspire attacks abroad.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Ideology, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

1042. Wartime Economies in the Middle East A Look into Libya, Syria and Iraq

Author:
Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, Renad Mansour, and Paul Salem
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted Chatham House experts Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, and Renad Mansour for a discussion on the collapse of central authority and its economic impacts across states in the Middle East and North Africa. MEI senior vice president for policy analysis, research, and programs Paul Salem moderated. The panel explored the development of the war economies of Syria, Libya, and Iraq, examined the commonalities and differences in the three cases, and discussed the challenges of combating the economic power of armed insurgents.
Topic:
War, Non State Actors, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, and Syria

1043. How Can the International Community Promote Libya's Stability and Security?

Author:
Wafa Bughaighis, Ben Fishman, Nigel Lea, Jason Pack, and Jonathan Winer
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Libya occupies a sensitive position for the security of Arab and European neighbors, including many U.S. allies, and in managing the region’s destabilizing migration flows. The country’s fractious politics and armed insurgencies are depriving Libyans of security, basic services, and economic stability, and leave the country vulnerable to jihadi terrorism. The United Nations has proposed a road map for rethinking the embattled government of national accord and binding Libya’s rival parliaments and militia commander Khalifa Haftar into negotiation of a consensus path forward. The Middle East Institute (MEI) presented a two-panel symposium to examine opportunities for the United States and international community to advance Libya's security and mobilize to meet the humanitarian challenges. This is the first of the two panels.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Migration, United Nations, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

1044. An Untold Story: The Role of Women in Art & Peacebuilding in the Middle East

Author:
Alia Ali, Lulwa Al Khalifa, Helen Zughaib, and Neda Ulaby
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute's (MEI) Arts and Culture Program was pleased to host a panel conversation examining the critical role Middle Eastern women play in building more stable and tolerant communities through the lens of the arts. The panel took place in conjunction with programming around I AM, an exhibition of 31 Middle Eastern women contemporary artists from 12 countries, at the American University Museum at the Katzen Arts Center, with a general public opening reception on September 9. Organized by CARAVAN, an international NGO that focuses on building bridges through the arts, the exhibition highlights the role that Middle Eastern women play in their societies and the power of the arts to articulate their ambitions. The panel featured three participating artists and a scholar of women's issues and was moderated by NPR's Neda Ulaby. The panelists drew upon their experiences to challenge common misconceptions about women in the region and explore how the arts can serve as a form of creative and non-violent resistance.
Topic:
Arts, Culture, and Women
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, Bahrain, and United States of America

1045. Iran's Social and Cultural Dynamics

Author:
Yeganeh Rezaian and Paul Salem
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Journalist Yeganeh Rezaian joins host Paul Salem for a discussion of social and cultural trends inside Iran, how youth are dealing with unemployment and other economic pressures, and how women are seeking opportunities for socioeconomic advancement and gender equality.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Culture, Women, Inequality, Economy, and Youth
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1046. Gaza Approaching a Boiling Point?

Author:
Tareq Baconi, Lara Friedman, Christopher McGrath, Natan Sachs, and Paul Salem
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Political and humanitarian conditions in Gaza are in a critical state. The Fatah-Hamas rivalry and the Gulf countries’ rift with Qatar have stymied funding to the territory and exacerbated an already desperate energy crisis. The issuance of exit permits to Palestinians in Gaza is at its lowest rate since 2014. In the midst of pressing humanitarian concerns, what options do Palestinians and Israelis have to help prevent renewed violence? How can the United States and the international community bring the question of Gaza back into regional deliberations and the peace process? The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted a discussion with Tareq Baconi (al Shabaka), Lara Friedman (FMEP), Christopher McGrath (UNRWA), Natan Sachs (Brookings), and Paul Salem (MEI) on the ways in which to mitigate the political and humanitarian problems in Gaza. An event in the George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation Lecture Series.
Topic:
Politics, Violence, Peace, Hamas, and Fatah
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

1047. Addressing Lebanon's Refugee Crisis and Development Challenges

Author:
Randa Slim and Philippe Lazzarini
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is facing overwhelming socioeconomic, security, and demographic challenges as the civil war in neighboring Syria enters its seventh year. Since the start of the crisis, Lebanon has received $4.9 billion in assistance, but demands on the country's resources, services, and civil order remain heavy. Without a political solution to the Syrian conflict, humanitarian and development aid cannot deliver and sustain sufficient results for the refugees or for the Lebanese people. How will Lebanon continue to deal with these conditions? The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Foreign Policy Institute (SAIS-FPI) were pleased to host Philippe Lazzarini, the United Nations deputy special coordinator in Lebanon. He discussed opportunities and challenges for shifting the international response to Lebanon's Syrian refugee crisis beyond short-term humanitarian and stabilization efforts to a more sustainable economic growth strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, United Nations, Foreign Aid, Refugees, Economic growth, Syrian War, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

1048. Vienna meeting on Nuclear Energy and Proliferation Risks

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
There was general agreement that the JCPOA was a very positive solution to a complex issue, providing a constructive and peaceful way forward for the Middle East in particular, and the non-proliferation regime in general. The deal contained in the JCPOA is working as intended. Iran has been determined by the IAEA on multiple [6] occasions to be in full compliance with its obligations, and now has the most comprehensive safeguards and verification regime in history. World powers have followed through with some sanctions relief thereby aiding the Iranian economy. Furthermore, there have been other positive dimensions, including an effective joint commission process, greater transparency among parties, as well as communications and interactions taking place in a more positive atmosphere. At the same time, it was recognized that the deal is unstable: although the terms of the JCPOA were ring-fenced from the wider geopolitical environment of the Middle East, political manoeuvring can threaten its continued implementation. The spill-over of non-nuclear issues, often labelled under “Iranian behaviour”, should not be allowed to derail the process. It was noted in a positive sense that all the main candidates in the Iranian Presidential campaign have signalled their desire to continue with the JCPOA. However, several participants felt that some of Iran’s regional policies could undermine this, risking a negative reaction from the US and other states. Some argued that given Iran’s disputed compliance history with IAEA safeguards agreements (which even two years later remains heated) and, in general, the uneasy relations in the past between Iran and IAEA, it is important that Iran continue to strictly comply to the letter of the JCPOA. The US domestic context provides perhaps the greatest potential risk to the sustainability of the JCPOA. It was noted that President Trump may not, after all, ‘tear up’ the deal. The possibility was raised that, because many in his national security team were seen as hostile to Iran, any minor safeguards violation may be seized upon to terminate the deal. Such a hard-line approach could isolate the US from a global consensus and weaken its hand in other relevant matters. There is further danger that Congress could act alone in enacting a bill (of which many are on the table) that would be in contravention of the JCPOA. This possibility was considered unrealistic by some participants. Some details of Security Council resolution 2231 were seen as problematic in a number of ways: the explicit provisions on ballistic missiles were viewed as an unnecessarily punitive measure unrelated to the main goals of the JCPOA; equally, some of the inquiry and resolution mechanisms were seen by some as unbalanced. The JCPOA should in any case be understood as a temporary solution. Even though continuing to implement it effectively would build more confidence, ultimately trust between Iran and some Western states will likely never be high. However, the deal does hold the potential for transformative progress in Iran-US relations, pending further steps to de-escalate and normalize relations. Many of Iran’s neighbours worry that the remaining latent nuclear capacity has only delayed the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran down the road; at the same time, many regional states are also pursuing nuclear fuel cycle programs. The JCPOA should also offer the international community an opportunity to consider how to extend some measures indefinitely and extend them to other countries. Regional stability and non-proliferation could be enhanced by extending some of the JPCOA provisions to the Middle East and beyond it. As such, Pugwash should make efforts to convene and organize meetings to explore far-reaching initiatives that are in the spirit of the agreement; for example: initiatives to discuss ‘internationalizing’ the nuclear fuel cycle; forward-looking regional agreements, such as a threshold of uranium enrichment, a ban on plutonium reprocessing, or limits on stockpiles of LEU; innovative safeguards measures, such as advanced monitoring technology, enhanced access to centrifuge production facilities, or explicitly set times for snap inspections; further multilateral scientific and technical cooperation, such as the SESAME project.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1049. Brain Circulation: Canada & Israel

Author:
Creed Atkinson and Jinhui Jiao
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
High-skilled Prime working age (PWA) people are fundamental in securing economic growth. Therefore, a country’s ability to attract PWA immigrants and encourage its domestic PWA population to remain put, is crucial to sustaining economic competitiveness. Looking at Canada and Israel, authors Creed Atkinson (MGA ’17) and Jinhui Jiao (MGA ’17) found that Canada is currently benefitting from PWA brain gain while Israel is experiencing PWA brain drain. Given Canada’s already high ability to attract high quality PWA immigrants, its policy should focus on circulating PWA migrants back home. With the acute shortage of high-skilled workers and unique geo-political and legal conditions in Israel, limiting its ability to attract PWA migrants, its policy should also focus on brain circulation. Accordingly, both Canada and Israel would do best if they focus their future activities on brain circulation instead of attracting PWA immigrants.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Labor Issues, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Middle East, Canada, Israel, and North America

1050. Society in the Persian Gulf: Before and After Oil

Author:
Lawrence G Potter
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies: CIRS
Abstract:
This essay takes as its focus society in the Persian Gulf over the long term, both before and after oil. In order to understand the transitions society has gone through, it is necessary to review the region’s historical evolution and how society in the Gulf today differs from that of the pre-oil era. The Gulf is presented as a distinct historical region, where a tradition of free movement helped account for the success of its port cities, themselves linked more to the Indian Ocean basin than the Middle East. In the twentieth century, the historic ties that connected the people of the Gulf littoral were curtailed as nationalism became the dominant ideology, and borders and passports were imposed. After oil was discovered and exports began following World War II, the small Gulf shaikhdoms, most of which were under British protection until 1971, experienced a surge in revenues that ushered in the modern era. Newly independent states sought to impose a new identity, manipulate history, and exploit sectarian cleavages to solidify the power of ruling dynasties. The historic cosmopolitanism of the Gulf was ignored by states that privileged the tribal, Bedouin heritage of their leaders. Arabs and Persians, both Sunni and Shi‘a, as well as many other groups have lived with each other in the region for many centuries, during which mutual differences occasionally led to conflict. But the current mistrust, tension, and sense of vulnerability felt by all sides is a product of the modern age.
Topic:
Nationalism, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Religion, Maritime Commerce, and Independence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Persian Gulf, and Indian Ocean